Italy referendum showdown gauges Meloni’s clout, tests fractured opposition

Rome– Italy’s upcoming referendum on judicial reform on March 22-23 is set to test Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s political strength while offering the divided opposition a potential springboard to build a broader alliance ahead of next year’s general election.

Voters will decide on a proposal to separate the careers of judges and public prosecutors, splitting the self-governing High Council of the Judiciary (CSM) into two distinct bodies.

Though focused on institutional reform, the vote has evolved into a broader political contest between the government-backed “Yes” campaign and opposition forces advocating “No.” No turnout quorum is required for the referendum to be valid.

Analysts say the campaign has been marked by sharp rhetoric and limited public understanding of the legal changes at stake.

Fabrizio Masia, head of pollster EMG, said most voters were likely to base their choice on political loyalties rather than the substance of the reform.“Only a small minority of Italians knows much about the issue,” Masia said, adding that party leaders on both sides were focused on mobilising supporters to secure a narrow win.

Opinion polls released before a mandated two-week blackout period showed a closely contested race, with the “No” camp gaining ground amid indications that some right-wing voters may abstain. Meloni has ruled out resigning if the referendum fails, a move widely interpreted as an effort to dampen opposition turnout driven by the prospect of weakening her government.

Her ruling coalition, which includes Brothers of Italy, the League and Forza Italia, continues to poll ahead of the left, which has struggled to consolidate around the Democratic Party and the 5-Star Movement.

A rejection of the reform could inject momentum into efforts to unite centre-left forces and potentially expose internal strains within the governing bloc, Masia said. Conversely, approval of the measure would strengthen Meloni’s political standing as she approaches the latter part of her term.

Political scientist Emanuele Massetti said a government victory would reinforce its longer-term agenda, particularly with an eye on the 2027 election, as Italy navigates external geopolitical pressures and a sluggish domestic economy.