India’s Russian Oil Purchases Set for Sharp Decline as Sanctions Tighten
New Delhi – India’s refiners are preparing for a major shift in crude sourcing as tightening Western sanctions make Russian oil purchases increasingly difficult, prompting a pivot toward alternative suppliers and raising questions about future energy trade dynamics.
India’s imports of Russian crude are projected to fall sharply in December, reaching their lowest level in nearly three years as refiners move quickly to comply with expanded Western restrictions on Russian energy flows.
The change marks a significant shift from the high volumes seen in recent months, during which Russian grades remained a major part of India’s crude basket.
The decline follows newly strengthened sanctions issued by the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom, which have placed increased pressure on Russian oil producers and on the financial channels used to settle such trade.
Several refiners and trading sources indicated that banks are now adopting stricter due-diligence procedures, making transactions involving Russian firms more challenging.
The latest measures specifically target major Russian producers, prompting buyers to halt or wind down purchases linked to certain companies.
Refiners were given a deadline in late November to end dealings with key entities, resulting in a scramble to secure alternative supplies before compliance cut-off dates.
Additionally, a separate EU rule coming into effect early next year restricts the import of fuels produced from Russian-origin crude within a defined time window.
This requirement is expected to further limit the pathways through which Russian oil can reach global markets, including India.
Indian refiners, particularly state-run companies, have responded with heightened caution due to increased banking scrutiny.
Preliminary shipping projections suggest that India may receive between 600,000 and 650,000 barrels per day of Russian crude in December—significantly below levels recorded in October and November.
Throughout November, imports were elevated as refiners sought to build inventories ahead of the sanctions deadline and also adjusted to evolving European rules for future fuel exports.
Industry sources noted that several companies accelerated purchases to prevent supply gaps during the transition period.
Many Indian refiners, including those operating major coastal facilities, have already halted their Russian crude purchases entirely.
Others have limited procurement solely to non-sanctioned entities to avoid legal or financial exposure.
Certain private refiners remain partially aligned with Russian suppliers due to existing commercial structures or equity relationships.
However, they too are adjusting operations to ensure regulatory compliance after the transition deadlines.
One major private operator indicated that any Russian cargoes secured before the compliance date would be processed normally, while later shipments would be directed to domestic-fuel-oriented units to avoid complications.
The company also noted that its export-focused refinery would refrain from processing Russian grades after the deadline.
At the same time, India’s crude mix is showing signs of diversification, with U.S. oil gaining a larger share in recent import data.
This shift is partly driven by favourable price dynamics and partly by diplomatic pressures that seek a more balanced energy relationship.
U.S. crude purchases rose to their highest level in more than a year in October as refiners capitalised on arbitrage opportunities and reduced reliance on Russian grades.
Broader geopolitical considerations are also in play, with trade measures prompting Indian refiners to increase engagement with alternative markets.
India continues to explore flexible sourcing options to maintain stability in domestic fuel supplies while navigating complex global regulatory frameworks.
As sanctions evolve and financial scrutiny deepens, refiners are preparing for continued adjustments in crude strategy and long-term procurement planning.
