Gold Holds Steady as Softer US Data Strengthens Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts

Gold prices remained stable as weaker US economic readings supported market confidence that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates as early as December.

Gold prices were steady on Tuesday, with investors responding cautiously to new economic data from the United States that pointed toward softer retail activity and reinforced expectations of a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, keeping gold supported at elevated levels.

Spot gold hovered close to recent highs after touching its strongest level in nearly two weeks earlier in the day, reflecting a broader sentiment in global markets in which traders increasingly anticipate a shift toward a more accommodative monetary stance by US policymakers.

Market participants noted that gold remained resilient even with slight intraday fluctuations, as the precious metal continues to benefit from the combination of cooling economic indicators and dovish commentary from senior Federal Reserve officials.

Gold futures for December delivery also registered an uptick, showing that investor sentiment remained broadly constructive,
with many traders positioning themselves ahead of the December policy meeting where a rate cut has become the dominant expectation in futures markets.

Analysts said the newly released retail sales data showed weaker-than-forecast growth for September, suggesting a moderation in consumer momentum after several months of strong spending that had previously raised concerns about persistent inflationary pressures.

Economic data also showed that the producer price index rose 2.7% year-on-year through September, matching the previous month’s increase and signaling steady but contained inflation in the broader US supply chain.

The report’s timing followed a lengthy government shutdown that delayed the release of several key indicators, making this latest data particularly significant for traders trying to gauge the underlying health of the US economy.

In financial markets, the probability of a December interest rate cut rose sharply,
with traders now assigning an 85% likelihood of a reduction compared to around 30% just one week earlier, according to futures data.

Expectations for another cut in January also strengthened, rising to more than 60%, as investors interpreted recent Fed remarks as a signal that policymakers may be leaning toward easing monetary conditions to support the labor market and broader economic stability.

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said the current state of the job market appeared to justify additional rate cuts,
remarks that aligned with earlier statements from other policymakers who have suggested the need for further adjustment in response to slowing economic indicators.

Gold traditionally performs well in environments of lower interest rates because it does not yield interest, making the metal relatively more attractive when borrowing costs decline and safe-haven demand increases.

Analysts added that ongoing geopolitical tensions and broader economic uncertainty have continued to provide a supportive foundation for gold, as investors often turn to the precious metal during periods of volatility or concerns over global financial stability.

Market strategists said that even if short-term fluctuations occur, the overall environment of cautious optimism surrounding potential policy easing is likely to maintain gold within a firm trading range in the near term.

Some observers also pointed out that gold’s recent momentum reflects not only expectations for rate cuts, but also a shift in risk appetite as global markets navigate a mix of slowing growth indicators, regional conflicts, and evolving inflation patterns.

As investors await additional data releases and prepare for upcoming Federal Reserve communications,
gold’s performance is expected to remain closely tied to economic signals and policy commentary that could shape the trajectory of US monetary policy heading into the new year.

For now, the precious metal remains supported by a combination of macroeconomic factors, with analysts noting that unless data significantly strengthens, the outlook for gold will likely remain positive under the current market dynamics.