The China-Pakistan InfoWar Behind Indonesia’s Defence Deals
At the same time, negative narratives surrounding the Rafale and India’s BrahMos missile system gained traction across social media.
A new open-source intelligence (OSINT) report by ThinkFi claims that coordinated online campaigns linked to pro-China and pro-Pakistan networks attempted to shape public opinion around Indonesia’s fighter aircraft procurement between 2025 and 2026.
According to the report, Indonesia became a major target after the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict. Researchers say online networks worked to undermine confidence in France’s Rafale fighter jets while simultaneously promoting Chinese and Pakistan-backed alternatives such as the J-10C and the JF-17 Thunder.
Rather than relying on isolated posts, the campaign combined synchronized social media activity, bot networks and repeated amplification through state-linked media outlets to influence conversations around one of Southeast Asia’s largest defence modernization programmes.
The study suggests that cognitive warfare is no longer confined to politics or diplomacy. It is increasingly extending into commercial sectors, including the global arms market, where shaping public perception can become part of a country’s broader strategic competition.
Rafale Procurement Became the Primary Target
The report says the campaign gained momentum after the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, when Chinese defence platforms were widely promoted across social media alongside claims questioning the combat performance of Western military equipment.
Indonesia naturally became a focal point because of its Rafale acquisition programme with France and its wider efforts to modernize its air force. Researchers identified the Indonesian hashtag #HentikanRafaleDeal (“Stop the Rafale Deal”) as one of the central themes used to spread criticism of the aircraft.
One of the strongest indicators of coordinated activity, according to the study, came on June 11, 2025, when almost 93 percent of all posts carrying the hashtag appeared within a single hour. Such concentrated activity, the researchers argue, is highly unusual for a genuine public conversation and instead points towards organized amplification.
The timing also stood out. Just weeks earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron had visited Jakarta, where France and Indonesia signed a letter of intent to deepen defence cooperation, further strengthening the Rafale programme. The report argues that the online campaign appeared designed to influence public debate precisely when the procurement was attracting significant political attention.
Researchers also link the broader narrative to China’s efforts to market its own defence industry following the India-Pakistan conflict. During the same period, Chinese-built platforms such as the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation’s J-10C and the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation’s J-35 were promoted online as affordable and technologically advanced alternatives.
At the same time, negative narratives surrounding the Rafale and India’s BrahMos missile system gained traction across social media. While the report notes that these developments coincided with increased investor interest in Chinese defence companies, it does not claim that the online campaigns directly influenced stock market activity.
A Fresh Wave of Narratives Ahead of Rafale Deliveries
According to ThinkFi, similar patterns emerged again in May 2026 as Indonesia prepared to receive another batch of Rafale aircraft under its existing contract.
Researchers observed a sudden spike in Indonesian-language posts beginning on May 1 and peaking a day later. Many claimed that Jakarta had already signed a deal to purchase 42 Chinese J-10C fighter jets, despite there being no official announcement confirming any such agreement.
The report says many of the accounts driving these claims displayed characteristics commonly associated with automated networks. Some reportedly posted more than 500 times a day, while many accounts were created around the same period and amplified identical messages in a synchronized manner. The researchers identified a significant number of these accounts as originating from China and Pakistan.
According to the study, the messaging closely mirrored the online narratives seen during the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, where pro-China and pro-Pakistan accounts promoted the J-10 while simultaneously questioning the Rafale’s operational effectiveness.
Indonesia has acknowledged that it continues to evaluate multiple fighter aircraft as part of its long-term modernization plans. Although Indonesian officials indicated in late 2025 that the J-10C remained one of several options under consideration, no procurement agreement has been signed. Indonesian media, including Tempo, has reported that discussions remain at the evaluation stage.
The JF-17 Narrative and the Wider Information Campaign
The report identifies January 2026 as another key phase of the campaign, this time focusing on Pakistan’s JF-17 Thunder after defence discussions between Jakarta and Islamabad.
Researchers highlight a Reuters report published on January 12, 2026, which discussed possible defence cooperation and mentioned reported interest in more than 40 JF-17 aircraft, even though neither government officially announced such a purchase. According to the study, similar claims quickly spread across social media, where they were amplified by accounts that had previously participated in coordinated messaging.
The report also points to subsequent coverage by The Telegraph, which revisited the same claims while discussing the JF-17’s reported performance during the India-Pakistan conflict. Researchers say both reports were later cited by China’s state-run Global Times, after which similar stories appeared across several Chinese media outlets over the next two days.
According to ThinkFi, this reflects a familiar information strategy in which speculative or unverified reporting gains credibility through repeated references across multiple media platforms before becoming widely accepted in online discussions. At the same time, the report acknowledges that the Reuters article itself did not claim that any procurement agreement had been finalized and attributed its reporting to discussions surrounding defence cooperation.
The broader conclusion of the study is that Indonesia’s case demonstrates how defence procurement is becoming increasingly vulnerable to coordinated information campaigns operating across national boundaries. While China has previously been associated with influence operations in geopolitical contexts, the researchers argue that the apparent involvement of Pakistan-linked online networks in amplifying narratives favourable to Chinese defence exports represents a notable evolution.
As Indonesia continues expanding and diversifying its defence partnerships, the report suggests governments may increasingly face the challenge of separating genuine public opinion from coordinated digital influence campaigns. In an era where defence competition extends well beyond military capability, controlling the narrative may prove almost as important as securing the contract itself.
