ANALYSIS: Why Saudi Arabia is Leading Peace Talks to End the Ukraine War?
For Prince Mohammed, this was a diplomatic victory, reinforcing his efforts to transform his oil-rich nation from its conservative past into a formidable soft-power player.
Saudi Arabia’s hosting of high-level talks involving American, Russian, and Ukrainian officials underscores its ambition to position itself as a key global mediator. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman personally welcomed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Jeddah, just before crucial discussions between U.S. and Ukrainian representatives.
This meeting followed a recent episode where former U.S. President Donald Trump rebuked Zelensky for being “ungrateful” during an encounter at the White House.
Saudi Arabia had already facilitated discussions between top U.S. and Russian officials, marking the first direct engagement between Washington and Moscow since the onset of the Ukraine war. The selection of Saudi Arabia as the host was acknowledged by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov as a mutually agreeable venue for both parties.
For Prince Mohammed, this was a diplomatic victory, reinforcing his efforts to transform his oil-rich nation from its conservative past into a formidable soft-power player.
The kingdom’s diplomatic balancing act extends beyond the Ukraine war. In recent years, Saudi Arabia has shifted towards a policy of neutrality in global conflicts. This pivot aligns with its broader economic agenda—Vision 2030—which aims to reduce its reliance on oil by attracting foreign investment.
As part of this strategy, Prince Mohammed has de-escalated tensions in Yemen, re-engaged with Iran, and maintained strong ties with both China and Russia, all while preserving Saudi Arabia’s historically close relationship with Western powers.
Balancing Relationships with Putin and Trump
Saudi Arabia’s global image is no longer confined to its oil wealth. The kingdom has hosted high-profile boxing matches, electronic music festivals, and humanitarian summits. It has also sought to bolster its reputation as a peace broker by organizing aid conferences and diplomatic meetings.
In August 2023, Saudi Arabia hosted a two-day peace summit on Ukraine with representatives from over 40 nations, though Russia was absent. Earlier in the year, Riyadh pledged $400 million in aid to Ukraine.
Prince Mohammed’s increasing diplomatic prominence stems in part from his close ties with Trump. Trump’s decision to make Saudi Arabia his first international visit as president in 2017 was a significant departure from tradition.
Even after losing the 2020 election, Trump’s business connections with Saudi Arabia remained intact, with Saudi investments worth $2 billion flowing into a firm managed by his son-in-law Jared Kushner and plans to establish Trump-branded properties in the kingdom.
On Friday, Trump announced his intention to revisit Saudi Arabia, citing the kingdom’s pledge to invest $1 trillion in U.S. companies over four years. “This time, they’ve gotten richer and we’ve all gotten older”, Trump remarked, reinforcing his administration’s transactional approach to diplomacy.
Simultaneously, Prince Mohammed has cultivated a strong rapport with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Unlike Western leaders who distanced themselves after the Khashoggi incident, Putin maintained ties with the Saudi crown prince. Even after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Prince Mohammed resisted U.S. pressure to distance himself from Moscow, continuing to collaborate with Russia on global oil supply management.
In 2023, Putin visited Saudi Arabia, reinforcing Riyadh’s role in the BRICS economic bloc, which seeks to counterbalance U.S. financial dominance.
Saudi Arabia’s ability to hedge its relationships in an increasingly polarized global landscape has proven beneficial. The kingdom played a critical role in securing the release of American teacher Mark Fogel from Russian custody and has successfully mediated multiple prisoner exchanges between Ukraine and Russia.
However, the recent U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia notably excluded Ukraine. In contrast, the upcoming meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Ukrainian officials will ensure Kyiv’s involvement in ongoing negotiations.
Saudi Arabia’s Eyes on Gaza
Beyond Ukraine, Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic positioning could serve its broader regional objectives. Trump’s controversial proposal to relocate Gaza’s population and redevelop the territory into a luxury coastal destination has been met with widespread Arab opposition. In response, regional leaders convened in Cairo to endorse a $53 billion reconstruction plan aimed at preserving Palestinian residency in Gaza.
By playing a key role in ending the Ukraine war, Saudi Arabia stands to gain favor in Washington over Gaza.
Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain, suggests that the kingdom could leverage this goodwill to bridge the gap between the U.S. and Arab positions on Gaza.
With Trump potentially in office, Prince Mohammed may attempt to use their close ties to influence American policy in the Middle East.
Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia faces challenges in balancing its strategic interests. Trump has long advocated for Saudi-Israel normalization, but the kingdom remains committed to defending Palestinian statehood.
Saudi officials have consistently emphasized that a lasting peace must guarantee Palestinian rights in accordance with international resolutions. In a recent statement, the kingdom reiterated this stance, underscoring its reluctance to accept Trump’s Gaza relocation plan.
Prince Mohammed’s ability to sustain positive relations with Trump, Putin, and other global leaders may determine the success of his ambitions to position Saudi Arabia as a decisive mediator in international conflicts.
