China balances energy security and diplomacy as Iran crisis roils global oil routes

BEIJING, March 5 — Xi Jinping’s government is prioritizing energy security and diplomatic stability over direct support for Iran after U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered conflict in the Gulf and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, analysts said on Thursday, as China weighs the risks to its oil supplies and broader geopolitical interests.The war in the Middle East has raised fears of a global supply shock after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had taken “complete control” of the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to international markets. Roughly half of China’s seaborne crude imports pass through the strait, making the disruption a significant concern for the world’s second-largest economy.Despite condemning the U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, Beijing is unlikely to confront Washington directly or provide military support to Tehran, analysts said.“Beijing views Iran as a strategic partner rather than a military ally,” said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group. “China also values its relationship with other Gulf states, making direct military support beyond rhetoric highly unlikely.”Energy risks and strategic reservesChina is heavily dependent on imported oil to fuel its industrial economy. Domestic production accounts for roughly 30% of national demand, according to energy analytics firm Kpler.

The Middle East supplied about 57% of China’s direct seaborne crude imports in 2025, equivalent to around 5.9 million barrels per day. Of that volume, roughly 1.4 million barrels per day originated from Iran.However, analysts say China’s large strategic stockpiles give it a cushion against short-term disruptions. Kpler analyst Muyu Xu estimated that China holds about 1.2 billion barrels of crude oil in onshore inventories.Those reserves equal roughly 115 days of China’s seaborne crude imports, providing what Xu described as a “meaningful buffer” that allows the country and its refiners to manage temporary supply shocks and price spikes caused by instability in the region.The scale of those reserves, built up over years of government-directed stockpiling, reduces pressure on Beijing to respond militarily or economically to the crisis.

Diplomatic balancing actChina has expanded its diplomatic footprint in the Middle East in recent years as part of a broader strategy to secure energy supplies and increase geopolitical influence.In 2023, Beijing brokered a landmark agreement restoring diplomatic relations between Iran and Mohammed bin Salman’s Saudi Arabia after years of regional rivalry. Tehran later joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a full member, strengthening ties with China and Russia.At the same time, Beijing has sought to maintain stable relations with Gulf energy exporters while avoiding entanglement in regional conflicts.Chinese officials have called for an immediate halt to military operations following the strikes on Iran, urging restraint from all sides. Foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said the priority was preventing further escalation and limiting the spread of conflict across the region.The crisis also comes weeks before a planned summit between Xi and U.S. President Donald Trump scheduled to begin on March 31 in China.Analysts said the Iran conflict is unlikely to derail the meeting unless Washington moves aggressively to clamp down on Chinese purchases of Iranian oil.Russia seen benefiting from supply shiftsIf oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted, analysts say alternative suppliers could gain from the market shift.Russia could become a key beneficiary, as its crude exports represent one of the few large-scale alternatives available to Asian buyers seeking to replace Middle Eastern barrels.“Russian barrels are one of the most immediately available alternatives for India and China to replace disrupted Middle Eastern supplies,” Xu said.China’s reliance on imported energy, combined with its diplomatic ties across the Gulf, leaves Beijing walking a careful line as tensions in the region threaten to reshape global oil trade routes.