The General Directorate of Civil Defense said the warning was based on projections from the National Center for Meteorology, which expects moderate to heavy rainfall across regions including Makkah, Riyadh, Madinah, Qassim, Hail, Tabuk, the Eastern Province, Northern Borders, Al-Jouf, Al-Baha, Asir, Jazan and Najran.

Authorities said the unstable weather could trigger flash flooding, hailstorms and strong downdrafts capable of generating dust storms that may significantly reduce visibility.In response, Hafar Al-Batin University suspended in-person classes on Monday, shifting to remote learning in its main campus and affiliated colleges in Khafji and Al-Nairyah following meteorological advisories.

The civil defense agency advised residents to remain in safe locations, avoid flood-prone areas and refrain from entering valleys or swimming in affected zones, while monitoring official updates.The warnings follow a series of escalating alerts issued over the weekend, including a red alert for the Madinah region, where forecasters predicted intense rainfall, hail and near-zero visibility conditions.

Weather authorities said the system developed over northern and western regions on Saturday before expanding into central and eastern areas on Sunday, bringing widespread rain and dust-laden winds.

Officials said they continue to monitor the situation closely as adverse weather conditions persist, urging the public to prioritize safety precautions.

The India Meteorological Department projected seasonal rainfall at 92% of the long-period average (LPA), below its benchmark range for normal precipitation. The monsoon, which typically spans June to September, provides nearly 70% of the country’s annual rainfall and is critical for farming and water supplies.

M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said the forecast reflects evolving climate conditions, while IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra noted that weak La Niña-like conditions are transitioning to neutral patterns, with a high likelihood of an El Nino developing after June.

El Niño events are typically associated with hotter and drier weather across South and Southeast Asia and have historically coincided with weaker monsoons in India, sometimes triggering drought conditions and crop losses.

However, Mohapatra said a potential positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole later in the season could partially offset rainfall deficits by strengthening precipitation in the latter half of the monsoon.The initial forecast of 92% of the LPA is the lowest in nearly three decades, with an updated outlook expected in late May.

Economists warned that weaker rainfall, combined with global energy and commodity disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, could weigh on India’s economic outlook. Aditi Nayar said the developments pose downside risks to GDP growth for the 2026–27 fiscal year and could push inflation above 4.5%, compared with 3.4% recorded in March.

The government has projected economic growth between 6.8% and 7.2% for the current fiscal year, but agricultural performance remains a key variable.Lower rainfall could also reshape trade flows.

India, the world’s largest exporter of rice and onions and a major sugar producer, may curb exports if crop yields fall. At the same time, reduced domestic oilseed output could increase reliance on imported edible oils from countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Brazil.

The monsoon outlook is closely watched by policymakers and markets alike, given its broad impact on rural incomes, food prices and overall economic stability.

The storm is expected to bring heavy rainfall and winds of up to 130 km/h (80 mph), raising concerns about flooding and damage in the country’s most populous urban area. Weather officials said the system is likely to make its closest approach on Sunday.

Cyclone Vaianu is then forecast to track west of the Chatham Islands on Monday, though its impact could still be felt across parts of the region.

Emergency authorities have urged residents in vulnerable areas to follow evacuation instructions and prepare for severe weather conditions as the storm system intensifies.