Richard Horne, who leads the NCSC, part of Britain’s GCHQ, is expected to warn in a speech at the CyberUK conference that the country is navigating “the most seismic geopolitical shift in modern history,” according to remarks released in advance.

Horne will say the agency is handling around four “nationally significant” cyber incidents each week. While criminal activity such as ransomware remains the most frequent threat, he will emphasize that the most severe risks originate from state-linked operations.

He is expected to caution that British businesses must prepare for large-scale cyberattacks in the event of a broader international conflict, noting that such incidents could disrupt operations in ways that cannot be mitigated through payments, unlike some ransomware attacks.

Western officials have increasingly linked cyber operations to wider geopolitical conflict following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. According to data tracked by the Associated Press, more than 155 incidents including cyberattacks, sabotage and espionage have been attributed to Russia or its proxies since early 2022.

Authorities across Europe have reported similar threats. Governments in Sweden, Poland, Denmark and Norway have warned of cyberattacks targeting infrastructure such as power plants, dams and water systems, with several incidents attributed to actors linked to Russian intelligence services.

Horne will describe China’s cyber capabilities as highly sophisticated, while warning that Iran is likely using cyber tools to target individuals in the UK perceived as threats to its government.

He will also highlight what he calls “sustained Russian hybrid activity” extending beyond the battlefield into Europe.

The warning echoes remarks made in December by Blaise Metreweli, head of Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service, who said the global security environment is more contested than at any point in recent decades.

Ukrainian defence manufacturer Fire Point is developing a new air defence system aimed at intercepting ballistic missiles at a cost below $1 million per strike, positioning it as a lower-cost alternative to existing Western systems, a senior company executive said.

The company, known for producing the Flamingo cruise missile, is in discussions with European firms to launch the system as early as next year, with an initial interception target set for the end of 2027, according to co-founder and chief designer Denys Shtilierman.

The initiative comes as governments expand air defence capabilities amid ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, which have driven demand for missile interception systems. Existing platforms such as the U.S.-made Patriot system have faced supply constraints due to extensive deployment, while Europe’s SAMP/T system remains limited in production.

Shtilierman said current interception costs remain high, noting that systems like Patriot developed by Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed Martin often require multiple missiles per target, each costing several million dollars.

Fire Point’s objective is to significantly reduce these costs through technological adaptation and battlefield experience gained during the war with Russia.Ukraine’s defence sector has expanded rapidly since Russia’s 2022 invasion, with domestic companies leveraging operational experience to develop cost-efficient systems.

Fire Point has emerged as a leading producer of long-range drones used in strikes deep inside Russian territory and is now extending its capabilities into missile and air defence technologies.The company is also advancing development of ballistic missile systems.

Shtilierman said its FP-7 missile, with a range of about 300 kilometres, is nearing initial deployment, while a larger FP-9 missile capable of reaching up to 850 kilometres is entering testing. The latter could potentially place Moscow within operational range.

Missile analyst Fabian Hoffmann of the Norwegian Defence University College said that wider deployment of such systems could strain Russian air defences, although he noted that the timeline for a new interception system by 2027 remained ambitious.

Fire Point is simultaneously seeking regulatory approval for a proposed $760 million investment by a Middle Eastern conglomerate, which would value the company at approximately $2.5 billion. Ukrainian authorities are expected to decide on the deal by October, as all defence-related investments remain subject to government oversight during wartime.

Ukrainian media have identified the prospective investor as Edge Group, although neither the company nor regulators have publicly confirmed the transaction. Shtilierman said the investment could enable expansion into satellite launch capabilities, including plans for a low-orbit satellite network supported by a potential launch facility in the United Arab Emirates.

He said the company has already developed technology for solid rocket boosters and is in preliminary agreements with Western partners, although the project remains at an early stage.Fire Point is also seeking approval to export its drone systems to Gulf countries, where demand has risen amid heightened regional tensions.

The company said it has the capacity to produce up to 2,500 long-range drones per month, with each unit costing around 50,000 euros.

Production of its Flamingo missiles, currently limited to three units per cycle at a cost of about 600,000 euros each, is expected to increase once a new in-house engine enters mass production and a rocket fuel plant in Denmark becomes operational later this year.

Shtilierman said export of missile systems remains more restricted due to regulatory barriers, though interest from international buyers continues to grow as countries seek cost-effective defence solutions.

In villages such as Pusztavacs, located about 60 km southeast of Budapest, campaign posters and local conversations reflect uncertainty among voters who have traditionally backed Orban’s ruling Fidesz party.

Analysts say the countryside, home to roughly half of Hungary’s 9.5 million population, will determine the outcome of the closely watched poll.Orban has long relied on rural constituencies, bolstered by policies aimed at small communities, including infrastructure investments and family support programs.

Government-backed initiatives in Pusztavacs, such as cemetery and church renovations and the installation of an automated teller machine, have reinforced perceptions among some residents that the administration delivers tangible benefits.

“Orban does not take away, but provides,” said Maria Balogh, an 86-year-old resident, echoing sentiments common among older voters.However, economic pressures are weighing on others. Eva Batta, a 71-year-old pensioner, said her financial situation has deteriorated in recent years and expressed concern about the ongoing war in neighboring Ukraine.

Orban has emphasized such security fears during the campaign, warning that external actors could draw Hungary into the conflict, a claim denied by his opponents and European Union officials.Peter Magyar, whose Tisza party is leading in opinion polls, has focused on corruption and governance reforms, framing his campaign as a push for systemic change.

His messaging appears to be gaining traction in areas once considered strongholds of the ruling party.A local reserve soldier, speaking anonymously, said support for the opposition had “surged,” citing disillusionment with previous voting choices. Pensioner Laszlo Budavari said he plans to back Tisza, citing frustration with alleged corruption and concerns about emigration among younger generations.

“My daughters are leaving me here all alone,” he said, attributing their plans to dissatisfaction with current conditions.Political analysts suggest that while urban voters form a critical base for the opposition, electoral success will hinge on gains in rural districts.

Matyas Bodi, an analyst at Electoral Geography, described the election as being “100 percent” decided outside major cities, while sociologist Imre Kovach noted signs of a broader “political awakening” in the countryside.Magyar has adjusted his rhetoric to appeal to conservative and nationalist sentiments among rural voters, seeking to counter Orban’s longstanding dominance in these regions.The outcome of the election could determine whether Orban secures a fifth consecutive term or whether Hungary enters a new political phase shaped by shifting rural allegiances.