The Liberia-flagged Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) Serifos and China-flagged VLCCs Cospearl Lake and He Rong Hai transited via a designated passage that bypasses Iran’s Larak Island, according to data from LSEG.

Each vessel has the capacity to carry around 2 million barrels of oil.The Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass, had been effectively blocked by Iran since the outbreak of conflict in late February, contributing to supply disruptions and a sharp rise in oil prices.

Serifos, chartered by Thailand’s state energy firm PTT, is carrying crude loaded from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and is expected to arrive at Malaysia’s Malacca port on April 21, according to LSEG and Kpler data. It is among several vessels for which Malaysia had sought clearance from Iran to transit the strait, sources said.

Cospearl Lake, carrying Iraqi crude, is scheduled to reach Zhoushan port in eastern China on May 1, while the discharge destination for He Rong Hai, which is transporting Saudi oil, remains unclear. Both vessels are chartered by Unipec, the trading arm of Chinese energy major Sinopec.

Shipping data also showed that hundreds of tankers remain stranded in the Gulf awaiting passage during the limited ceasefire window, underscoring continued constraints on maritime traffic.At the same time, three empty tankers Mombasa B, Agios Fanourios I and Shalamar were navigating the strait to enter the Gulf and load crude.

One of them signaled plans to load Basrah oil in Iraq for delivery to Vietnam.Industry sources and companies involved did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The partial resumption of tanker movement highlights the critical role of the Strait of Hormuz in global energy flows and the sensitivity of oil markets to geopolitical developments in the region.

In an interview, Banga said the World Bank expects global growth to decline by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points under a baseline scenario assuming an early end to the conflict, and by as much as 1 percentage point if the war continues.

Inflation could rise by 200 to 300 basis points, with further increases of up to 0.9 percentage point in a prolonged conflict scenario.The bank now projects growth in emerging markets and developing economies at 3.65 percent in 2026, down from a previous estimate of 4 percent in October.

In a more severe scenario, growth could fall to as low as 2.6 percent. Inflation in these economies is forecast to reach 4.9 percent, compared to an earlier estimate of 3 percent, and could climb as high as 6.7 percent if disruptions persist.

The conflict has already driven oil prices up by about 50 percent while disrupting supplies of key commodities including oil, natural gas, fertilizers and helium, alongside impacts on tourism and air travel. Continued instability around the Strait of Hormuz remains a major risk factor, given its role in global energy flows.

Banga said the economic outlook depends heavily on whether ongoing negotiations lead to a lasting peace and the reopening of critical trade routes. Failure to stabilize the situation could result in longer-term damage to energy infrastructure and sustained pressure on global markets.

The World Bank has begun discussions with vulnerable countries, including small island states with limited energy resources, on accessing emergency funding through its crisis response mechanisms. These facilities allow governments to draw on pre-approved funds to manage immediate shocks without requiring new approvals.

At the same time, Banga cautioned governments against introducing unsustainable energy subsidies, warning such measures could worsen fiscal pressures in countries already burdened by high debt and elevated borrowing costs.

The crisis has intensified calls for energy diversification and greater self-sufficiency. Banga pointed to increased investments in refining capacity in countries such as Nigeria as an example of improving energy resilience, while noting ongoing World Bank support for expanding energy production in nations including Mozambique.

He added that scaling up nuclear, hydroelectric, geothermal, wind and solar energy would be critical to reducing reliance on traditional fuels and mitigating future shocks to global energy systems.

Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, told reporters in Singapore that while crude prices had fallen below $100 per barrel following a U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement, jet fuel costs were likely to remain elevated due to constraints on refining output.

“If it were to reopen and remain open, I think it will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be given the disruption to the refining capacity in the Middle East,” Walsh said, adding that the region is critical to global supply of refined products beyond aviation fuel.

The Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of the world’s oil trade, has been heavily disrupted during the recent conflict, squeezing fuel availability and driving up costs across the aviation sector.

Airlines in Asia have responded by cutting flights, carrying additional fuel from origin airports and adding refueling stops, measures that have increased operational costs for carriers already dealing with a sharp rise in jet fuel prices.

The impact has been most acute in import-dependent markets such as Vietnam, Myanmar and Pakistan, where supply constraints have tightened further after China and Thailand halted jet fuel exports and South Korea capped shipments at previous levels.

Walsh said a resumption of crude flows could encourage exporters such as China and South Korea to restart shipments of refined products, easing pressure on the market over time.

However, he noted that higher refinery margins, known as crack spreads, would be needed to incentivize increased jet fuel production.

“There is capacity available once we get the crude oil flowing, but it’ll take a little bit of time,” Walsh said.

The tender, issued on Saturday, covers 1.5 million tons for delivery via India’s west coast, with an additional 1 million tons planned through the east coast, according to a document published on the company’s website. Shipments are expected to depart load ports by June 14, while bids must be submitted by April 15.

India, the world’s largest importer of urea, routinely relies on global tenders to meet domestic demand, particularly ahead of the June monsoon season when sowing of crops such as rice, corn and soybeans begins.

Fertiliser availability is critical for the agriculture sector, which remains a key component of the country’s economy.The Gulf region accounts for between 20% and 30% of India’s urea imports and roughly half of its liquefied natural gas supplies, a key feedstock for domestic urea production, according to Aparna Sharma, additional secretary in the Department of Fertilisers.

Disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict have constrained gas availability, leading to a drop in local output last month, although supplies have improved in recent weeks, she said.

A Mumbai-based industry official said domestic urea production declined by around 600,000 to 700,000 tons per month during the disruption, with imports expected to partially offset the shortfall.

However, limited global surplus due to supply constraints in the Middle East may affect participation in the tender and influence pricing, the official added.In a previous tender in November, Indian Potash Limited secured urea at $418.40 per tonne on a cost-and-freight basis.

Prices have since risen amid the conflict, and market participants expect the current tender to serve as a pricing benchmark for other buyers in the global fertiliser market.

Jorgensen said the bloc is assessing “all possibilities” as it braces for sustained disruption, warning that energy prices are likely to remain elevated for an extended period. “This will be a long crisis energy prices will be higher for a very long time,” he said in the interview.

He added that for certain critical energy products, market conditions could deteriorate further in the coming weeks, underscoring concerns about supply constraints and volatility linked to the conflict.

The European Union has previously relied on coordinated measures such as strategic stock releases and demand reduction during periods of supply stress. Officials are now evaluating whether similar or more stringent interventions may be required if the crisis deepens.

The developments come as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt global energy flows, raising risks for import-dependent economies and adding pressure to inflation across the region.

The temporary tax cut will lower fuel costs by 26.3 Australian cents per litre, Albanese said, while the government will also remove the heavy road user charge.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the combined measures would cost about A$2.55 billion.

Global oil markets have tightened sharply after disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, through which around one-fifth of global supply previously passed. Brent crude has risen 59% in March, reaching $115.66 per barrel at the start of trading on Monday.

Domestic fuel prices have climbed in response, with diesel exceeding A$3 per litre and petrol reaching A$2.50, according to industry data.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the government would use expanded powers to support fuel imports, including underwriting high-cost spot cargoes through Export Finance Australia to ensure supply continuity.

The move aims to assist smaller fuel importers that may be unable to absorb the risks of volatile prices.

Canberra said Australia currently holds fuel reserves equivalent to about 30 days of diesel and jet fuel, and 39 days of petrol, below the 90-day level recommended by the International Energy Agency.

Officials said the country remains at level two of a national fuel security framework focused on maintaining transport and supply chains, warning that prolonged conflict could intensify economic pressures.

A fuel reservoir at Primorsk caught fire after a drone strike, Alexander Drozdenko, governor of the Leningrad region, said on Telegram. Separately, Ust-Luga operations were halted due to a drone alert in the surrounding area, the sources said.

Both ports, located in Russia’s northwestern Leningrad region, handle the bulk of the country’s seaborne crude oil and refined fuel exports from its western outlets, making them critical nodes in Russia’s energy supply chain.

The suspensions underscore growing vulnerabilities in Russia’s energy infrastructure as drone attacks increasingly target logistics and export facilities. While the extent of damage and the expected duration of the halt were not immediately clear, any prolonged disruption could tighten export availability from Baltic routes.

Transneft, Russia’s state-controlled oil pipeline monopoly that operates both Primorsk and Ust-Luga, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Primorsk and Ust-Luga serve as key gateways for Russian crude and petroleum products destined for international markets, particularly in Europe and beyond via maritime routes. Interruptions at these ports can affect shipping schedules, storage logistics and broader supply balances.

The incidents come amid heightened geopolitical tensions and a pattern of attacks on energy infrastructure, raising concerns over the resilience of supply networks and potential knock-on effects in global oil markets.

Brent crude futures rose 65 cents to $112.84 a barrel by 0446 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed 84 cents to $98.75, after both benchmarks had earlier fallen by more than $1. The spread between the two contracts widened to over $13 a barrel, the largest gap in years.

The volatility follows a U.S. decision to allow the temporary delivery and sale of Iranian-origin oil already at sea, injecting additional supply into markets strained by disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict.

Market sentiment remained highly sensitive to geopolitical developments after Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum demanding Iran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants.Iranian officials responded with warnings that any such action would trigger attacks on critical energy and infrastructure assets across the Gulf.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said regional facilities could face “irreversible” damage if Iranian plants were targeted.Analysts said the exchange of threats pointed to a heightened risk of escalation.

Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects said markets were underestimating the likelihood that Iran would resist pressure, warning that further confrontation could have severe consequences for Gulf infrastructure.

Despite the release of additional Iranian oil, traders remained focused on the scale of supply disruption caused by the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy flows handling roughly 20% of oil and liquefied natural gas trade, has been severely affected.Industry estimates suggest the war has removed between 7 million and 10 million barrels per day from Middle East production, tightening global supply even as policymakers attempt to stabilise markets.

Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights said short-term price movements would continue to be driven by geopolitical rhetoric, but longer-term trends would depend on the restoration of oil flows from the region.

Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, described the current crisis as “very severe,” exceeding the combined impact of the oil shocks of the 1970s.The conflict, now in its fourth week, has damaged major energy facilities and disrupted shipping routes, amplifying concerns over prolonged supply constraints and broader economic fallout.

The interplay between potential supply increases from Iranian oil and the risk of further infrastructure damage has left markets exposed to sharp price swings as the situation evolves.

Speaking at the National Press Club in Canberra, Birol said the agency would assess market conditions before deciding on further action, after member countries agreed on March 11 to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to ease surging crude prices.

“If it is necessary, of course, we will do it,” Birol said, adding there was no fixed price threshold that would automatically trigger another coordinated release. He cautioned that stock drawdowns could help stabilise markets but would not resolve underlying supply constraints.

Birol said the Asia-Pacific region was at the forefront of the crisis due to its reliance on energy and critical commodities shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime corridor affected by the conflict.

He described the current situation in the Middle East as “very severe,” saying its impact exceeded that of the 1970s oil shocks and the gas market fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war combined.

According to Birol, the conflict has removed around 11 million barrels per day from global oil supply, intensifying pressure on economies dependent on imports.“The single most important solution to this problem is opening the Hormuz Strait,” he said.

Birol said stock releases represented only one element of the agency’s response, pointing to demand-side measures such as reduced speed limits and increased remote working to curb fuel consumption.

He noted similar steps had helped lower energy use in Europe in 2022, though implementation would depend on national policy decisions.

“The depth of the problem was not well appreciated by decision makers around the world,” Birol said, explaining his decision to speak publicly weeks into the conflict.

During his visit, Birol met Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and reviewed the country’s fuel preparedness. While noting that Australia’s overall liquid fuel reserves remain below IEA requirements, he said recent efforts had improved resilience.

He described Australia’s diesel reserves, currently at around 30 days, as “a solid number” in the current environment.

Birol is scheduled to travel to Japan later this week ahead of a Group of Seven meeting, where energy security and coordinated responses to the supply shock are expected to be discussed.