Willie Walsh, head of the International Air Transport Association, said it could take months for jet fuel supplies to stabilize even if the Strait of Hormuz remains open, due to damage and disruption to refining capacity across the Middle East.

Airlines are facing what executives describe as their most severe operational strain in years, as Iran’s earlier closure of the key shipping route choked global jet fuel supply, pushing prices sharply higher.

Although oil prices fell below $100 a barrel following the ceasefire announcement, jet fuel costs remain elevated.Delta Air Lines said it expects lower-than-forecast second-quarter profit and plans to reduce capacity across its network to offset an estimated $2 billion increase in fuel expenses.

The carrier projects jet fuel prices at around $4.30 per gallon for the June quarter, significantly higher than a year earlier.Fuel typically accounts for about 27% of airline operating costs, making the recent surge particularly burdensome.

Industry data indicates jet fuel prices have more than doubled since the onset of the Iran conflict, outpacing increases in crude oil.Airlines globally have responded by raising fares, cutting flights, carrying additional fuel from origin airports and adding refueling stops to manage supply uncertainty.

Walsh said that while crude prices may ease, jet fuel is likely to remain relatively expensive in the near term due to refinery constraints. “Even if it reopens and stays open, it will take months to restore supply to required levels,” he said.The disruption is also affecting adjacent sectors.

TUI said it is assessing options for two cruise ships stranded in Abu Dhabi and Doha since the conflict began, noting it could take weeks to resume operations.Analysts said the ceasefire has supported airline stocks, with some describing the situation as a potential buying opportunity.

However, broader recovery in travel demand may lag, with economists pointing to a prolonged impact on consumer confidence.

According to Oxford Economics, it could take several months for traveler sentiment to normalize, even under a stable ceasefire scenario, as safety perceptions recover gradually.

The Middle East tourism sector, valued at roughly $367 billion, is also expected to face a delayed rebound, reflecting the wider economic fallout from the conflict and supply chain disruptions.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said ships should avoid the main navigation zone and instead follow designated entry and exit paths to reduce the risk of collision with naval mines.

“All ships intending to transit the Strait of Hormuz are hereby notified they should take alternative routes for traffic,” the statement said, emphasizing maritime safety concerns.

The announcement follows Tehran’s agreement to temporarily reopen the strategic strait as part of a two-week truce reached with Washington. The ceasefire was agreed late Tuesday, shortly before a deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump for Iran to comply with demands related to the reopening of the passage.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy corridor, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply typically passes.

Iran had effectively restricted traffic through the route since early March, contributing to a surge in global energy prices and heightening concerns over supply disruptions.

The designation of alternative routes signals continued operational risks in the waterway despite the ceasefire, underlining the fragile security environment and the potential for further disruption to global shipping and energy markets.

The United States is restructuring how it delivers life-saving medical supplies for HIV and malaria to low-income countries, a shift that officials and health experts warn could disrupt treatment access across parts of Africa and Asia.

The changes centre on winding down the Global Health Supply Chain Program – Procurement and Supply Management, a U.S.-funded initiative run by Chemonics, which has coordinated the delivery of critical medicines and prevention tools since 2016. According to internal communications and multiple sources familiar with the matter, U.S. officials have been instructed to begin halting implementation of the programme by May 30.

From its inception through 2024, the programme distributed more than $5 billion worth of HIV and malaria-related commodities to 90 countries, with a primary focus on sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia. The supplies included antiretroviral drugs, malaria treatments and insecticide-treated bed nets, forming a key component of global disease control efforts.The restructuring follows broader changes to U.S.

foreign aid policy under the administration of Donald Trump, which has prioritised reducing reliance on contractors, cutting budgets and shifting toward direct agreements with recipient governments. The overhaul also comes after the dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development, which had previously overseen much of Washington’s development assistance.

Five sources familiar with the transition said the pace of the changes risks creating supply gaps for essential medicines, particularly in countries with fragile health systems. An internal email reviewed by Reuters warned that accelerating the transition without a clear implementation plan could jeopardise continuity of services.

The communication, sent by the U.S. State Department to staff in 17 African countries and Haiti, directed country teams to prepare for the end of programme operations while outlining potential risks. It did not provide a detailed roadmap for replacement mechanisms, instead asking local offices to identify vulnerabilities and report back to Washington.

A State Department spokesperson said the agency had not issued technical instructions for Chemonics to cease operations by May 30, though the contract is set to expire on September 30 in line with other USAID awards. The official end date is listed as November.

The uncertainty has revived concerns stemming from earlier disruptions. In January last year, a freeze on international aid left millions of dollars’ worth of medical supplies stranded in ports and warehouses worldwide, including HIV drugs and malaria prevention tools. Distribution resumed only after waivers were granted for life-saving interventions.

Six sources said the United States has been in discussions with the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria about potentially using its procurement and distribution systems to replace the existing programme. The Geneva-based institution already manages approximately $2 billion in annual purchases for HIV, tuberculosis and malaria programmes through partnerships with national governments and implementing agencies.

However, two sources said earlier plans had envisaged a transition timeline extending to November 2027, allowing sufficient time for procurement cycles and logistical adjustments. Compressing this timeline into a matter of months could create operational bottlenecks, they said, noting that delivering medical supplies to remote areas can take up to a year from order to distribution.

The Global Fund declined to comment on the discussions. The State Department did not directly confirm the talks but said it would rely on pooled procurement mechanisms to secure supplies at competitive prices from private manufacturers.The policy shift is part of a broader “America First” approach to global health funding, which aims to reduce what officials describe as inefficiencies in the existing system.

A strategy document released in September argued that contractor-led programmes had contributed to waste and inflated costs, and emphasised direct funding for frontline services and national governments.

Under the new approach, Washington has signed 28 bilateral health agreements with partner countries and is increasingly channeling funds directly to national authorities. It also plans to use private logistics firms to handle distribution rather than relying on large development contractors.

Recent agreements with countries such as Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda include commitments to increase domestic health spending alongside U.S. funding. However, implementation has encountered obstacles. In Kenya, a proposed deal faces legal challenges from activists concerned about data privacy, while negotiations with Zambia have been delayed as officials seek to safeguard national interests.

Health experts and aid practitioners say the transition risks compounding existing vulnerabilities in global disease control programmes. Previous disruptions linked to funding changes have already contributed to shortages of malaria treatments for children and gaps in HIV prevention services in several countries.

The State Department defended the overhaul, describing the current system as outdated and inefficient. A spokesperson said the new model would prioritise value for American taxpayers while maintaining support for critical health interventions.

Despite those assurances, several sources involved in programme delivery said the lack of a detailed transition plan remains a central concern. They warned that without clear coordination between donors, governments and implementing partners, the shift could interrupt supply chains that millions depend on for survival.

The vessels, BW Tyr and BW Elm, are expected to arrive in Mumbai on March 31 and New Mangalore on April 1, respectively, according to a statement from the petroleum ministry.The transit comes as shipping through the strategic chokepoint has been severely curtailed by the conflict, with Iran allowing passage only to what it has described as “non-hostile vessels” that coordinate with its authorities.

The two tankers are among a small number of Indian-flagged vessels to successfully navigate the strait in recent days. Four LPG carriers have already completed the crossing, while three more remain in the western section of the waterway, according to ship tracking data.

A total of 18 Indian-flagged vessels with 485 Indian seafarers are still in the western Gulf region, the government said, underscoring continued exposure to maritime risks in the area.Energy dependence in focusIndia, the world’s second-largest importer of LPG, consumed 33.15 million tons of the fuel last year, with imports meeting roughly 60% of demand.

About 90% of these imports originate from the Middle East, making the Strait of Hormuz a critical artery for the country’s energy security.

Despite disruptions in maritime traffic, port operations across India remain normal with no congestion reported, the government added.

Rising costs for key inputs such as plastic bottles, caps, labels and cardboard packaging have begun to squeeze margins, with some packaged water manufacturers already increasing prices.

Rahul Kumar, deputy chief executive at SLMG Beverages, said the company would consider price adjustments depending on competitive dynamics and consumer response.“If the war continues, the packaging material cost may continue to move up,” Kumar said, noting that broad-based price increases remain constrained in a highly competitive market.

India’s soft drinks market has intensified following the re-entry of Reliance Industries into the segment with its revival of the Campa cola brand in 2023. The move has triggered aggressive pricing and expanded distribution, limiting the ability of incumbents to pass on higher costs.

Kumar said SLMG Beverages had not implemented a portfolio-wide price increase in the past seven to eight years, reflecting price sensitivity among consumers and the presence of multiple national and regional competitors.

Despite cost pressures, the company is pressing ahead with capacity expansion to capture rising demand in India’s non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages market, which consultancy Redseer estimates could double to about $40 billion by 2030.SLMG Beverages plans to invest between 10 billion and 12 billion rupees in each of four new plants over the next five years.

The bottler, which accounts for more than 22% of Coca-Cola’s India volumes, is targeting net revenue of 100 billion rupees by 2026–27.The expansion will focus on populous states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where consumption levels remain relatively low but incomes are rising.

The company reported strong growth in the last fiscal year, with sales rising 49% to 67.73 billion rupees and net profit increasing 76% to 2.06 billion rupees, according to data from Tofler.

The developments underscore how the Middle East conflict is feeding into global supply chains, pushing up input costs for consumer-facing industries even in markets geographically distant from the conflict zone.

JPMorgan Chase has announced an ambitious plan to invest up to $10 billion in U.S. companies vital to national security and economic resilience, marking one of the largest private-sector initiatives focused on strengthening America’s strategic industries.

This decade-long commitment forms part of the bank’s broader $1.5 trillion pledge to support sectors that are critical to the nation’s growth and long-term stability.

The initiative will focus on four core areas — supply chain and manufacturing, defense and aerospace, energy independence, and advanced frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing.

Through this effort, JPMorgan aims to build a more resilient U.S. economy that can withstand global disruptions while maintaining technological leadership.

JPMorgan’s announcement comes at a time when the U.S. government is placing renewed emphasis on bolstering domestic production and reducing reliance on foreign supply chains, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and clean energy.

The move also aligns with national efforts to strengthen economic security amid rising geopolitical tensions and trade disputes with countries such as China.

CEO Jamie Dimon made it clear that the initiative is entirely JPMorgan-driven and “100% commercial,” distancing it from any direct political influence. “This is a JPMorgan initiative,” Dimon told reporters during a press call.

“America needs more speed and investment. We’ve allowed ourselves to become too dependent on unreliable sources for critical minerals, products, and manufacturing. It’s time to fix that.” His remarks highlighted a growing recognition that economic resilience and national security are deeply interconnected.

The $10 billion will be deployed through direct equity and venture capital investments, targeting both large corporations and middle-market companies.

By supporting businesses at different scales, JPMorgan hopes to build a broad industrial base that strengthens domestic innovation and production. The bank also plans to establish an external advisory council composed of leaders from both the public and private sectors to guide the program’s direction.

Mary Erdoes, CEO of JPMorgan’s asset and wealth management business, and Doug Petno, Co-CEO of commercial and investment banking, will lead the initiative. Both are widely seen as potential successors to Dimon and are expected to play a key role in shaping the bank’s long-term vision for economic leadership. JPMorgan also plans to hire more bankers and investment professionals to support this growing effort.

The “security and resiliency initiative,” as the bank calls it, reflects a broader trend among U.S. financial institutions to align their investment strategies with national priorities. However, analysts note that JPMorgan’s scale and structure make this initiative stand out. “This is different in magnitude and time commitment,” said Mike Mayo, an analyst at Wells Fargo. “It represents a newer direction for sustainability and long-term economic planning.”

Other major banks have also financed defense, energy, and advanced manufacturing projects, but JPMorgan’s approach integrates these efforts under one cohesive framework. According to Michael Ashley Schulman, partner and chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, “JPMorgan stitched together an ocean of existing credit into one big patriotic umbrella. It’s both symbolic and strategic — a move that builds goodwill with the administration and the business community alike.”

The initiative will also expand JPMorgan’s research capabilities. The bank’s newly launched Center for Geopolitics will study supply chain vulnerabilities, global market risks, and emerging technologies that could redefine national competitiveness.

By combining financial expertise with geopolitical insight, JPMorgan aims to stay ahead of shifting economic landscapes.

This announcement comes as the U.S. pursues deals across nearly 30 industries considered vital to national or economic security. JPMorgan has already played a key role in structuring partnerships, including the government’s deal with MP Materials, a U.S.-based rare earth mining company essential to defense and tech manufacturing.

Andrew Castaldo, co-head of mid-cap mergers and acquisitions at JPMorgan, noted that the bank has fielded “no less than 100 calls from clients” to explore similar opportunities.

Dimon also used the occasion to call for policy changes that could accelerate progress. He pointed to regulatory delays, talent shortages, and infrastructure bottlenecks as key barriers to faster growth.

“America has always been strongest when it moves decisively,” he said. “We need more investment, more innovation, and more partnership between the private sector and government.”

By identifying 27 sub-sectors — ranging from shipbuilding and nuclear energy to nanomaterials and secure communications — JPMorgan’s plan demonstrates a granular understanding of the industries that will define America’s future.

The firm’s investment is expected to stimulate job creation, technological development, and industrial modernization across the country.

Shares of JPMorgan rose more than 2% following the announcement, signaling investor confidence in the bank’s long-term vision.

The market response suggests that aligning profit-driven strategy with national priorities can create a powerful narrative of responsible capitalism — one that not only delivers shareholder value but also contributes to national stability.

In many ways, JPMorgan’s new initiative represents a defining moment for the U.S. financial sector. It bridges the gap between Wall Street’s commercial ambitions and Main Street’s strategic needs, offering a blueprint for how financial power can reinforce national resilience.

As the global economy grows increasingly uncertain, such forward-looking commitments may well shape the next era of American economic leadership — one built on strength, innovation, and security.