India’s gross domestic product is expected to grow 6.7% in the fiscal year ending March 2027, unchanged from the March forecast in a Reuters poll conducted between April 20 and April 27 among 54 economists. That would mark a slight slowdown from the 7.0% growth estimated for the year ended March 31, 2026.

Forecasts for fiscal 2026-27 ranged from 5.9% to 7.5%, while growth was projected to edge up to 6.8% in 2027-28.Economists said the headline outlook masks deeper strain in the informal economy, where businesses and workers are more vulnerable to higher fuel costs, supply disruptions and weaker demand.

India’s shadow economy has previously accounted for nearly half of official GDP readings, although real-time data on its performance remains limited.In urban areas, which generate roughly 60% of India’s GDP, restaurants and hotels have reportedly shortened operating hours, reduced menus or shifted to alternative fuels such as firewood as conflict-related disruptions in the Middle East affect liquefied petroleum gas supplies.

“The informal segment is the worst hit and its ability to absorb shocks is very low. So we will see a ripple effect on jobs and demand,” said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. “All of that is going to play out if this problem persists beyond the near term.”India revised its GDP data methodology in recent years to improve the capture of informal sector activity, but economists said gaps remain substantial.

Yes Bank Chief Economist Indranil Pan said the disruption to the informal sector would not be reflected significantly in headline GDP figures.“That’s also the reason why we have not really changed our GDP much at this point in time,” he said.Inflation is expected to average 4.5% this fiscal year, according to the poll, remaining within the Reserve Bank of India’s 2% to 6% target range but more than double last year’s pace.

Despite higher price pressures, economists expect the RBI to keep interest rates unchanged through the end of 2027, reflecting concerns over balancing inflation control with growth stability.

Analysts said the government has attempted to cushion the impact of higher energy prices by cutting fuel duties, but a prolonged Middle East conflict could strain public finances and force a reallocation of spending away from infrastructure investment toward subsidies.

Capital expenditure has been a key growth driver in recent years amid weak private-sector investment, and any shift away from it could weigh on medium-term expansion.Aditya Vyas, chief economist at STCI Primary Dealer Ltd, said uncertainty linked to external shocks made a strong recovery in private investment unlikely in the near term.

“If push comes to shove, there could be a situation where a material diversion of funds from capex to subsidies happens,” Vyas said. “Price pressures are imminent and will in the medium term affect the fiscal front.”

In a joint statement, the groups warned that persistent institutional paralysis, rising protectionism and unresolved disputes risk undermining the WTO’s core functions, including its ability to negotiate new rules and enforce existing ones.

They said urgent action was needed to restore credibility and ensure the organization remains responsive to modern trade realities.

Officials highlighted the continued dysfunction of the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism, particularly the paralysis of its appellate process, which has limited the body’s capacity to deliver binding resolutions in trade conflicts.

They called for a fully operational and accessible system to uphold rules-based trade.

The statement stressed the need to update WTO frameworks to address emerging areas such as digital commerce, industrial subsidies and supply chain resilience.

The EU and CPTPP members said current rules do not adequately reflect evolving global trade patterns or technological change.

The groups reaffirmed their commitment to a rules-based international trading system, warning that fragmentation into competing trade blocs could weaken global economic stability.

They urged broader membership engagement to advance consensus-driven reforms.

The WTO, established in 1995 to oversee global trade rules, has faced increasing pressure in recent years amid geopolitical tensions and shifting economic priorities among major economies.

The planned aid comes as households face mounting pressure from higher fuel and electricity prices driven by geopolitical tensions affecting global energy markets.

Earlier this month, the government introduced a three-month cap on profit margins for fuel retailers and a range of supermarket goods in an effort to curb profiteering and contain inflationary pressures.

The measures target both energy-linked products and essential consumer items, reflecting concerns that supply disruptions tied to the conflict could feed through into broader price increases.

Greece, like many energy-importing economies, remains exposed to volatility in international fuel markets.

The government’s intervention signals an effort to balance market stability with consumer protection as the conflict’s economic impact deepens.Further details of the aid package were not immediately disclosed.