Brent crude futures rose about 7% in early Asian trading to $96.85 a barrel, while S&P 500 futures fell roughly 0.9%, reflecting a shift toward risk aversion among investors. Currency markets also reacted, with the euro easing 0.3% to $1.1735 and the Japanese yen weakening about 0.2% to 158.95 per dollar.

The moves followed conflicting signals on diplomacy after Iran rejected new peace talks with the United States, according to state media, hours after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington would pursue negotiations while warning of further military action if Tehran refused its terms.

Market sentiment was further pressured by rising tensions at sea after the United States said it had seized an Iranian cargo vessel attempting to breach its blockade, adding to uncertainty around energy supply routes.

The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz a key transit corridor for global oil and gas shipments — reversed sharp gains in equities and bonds recorded on Friday, when Iran’s brief reopening of the passage had fueled hopes of de-escalation and sent oil prices lower.

Analysts said markets are recalibrating expectations after what some viewed as an overly optimistic rally. Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, said investors were unwinding positions as geopolitical risks resurfaced, though underlying expectations of continued dialogue between the two sides remain a moderating factor.

“If it is confirmed that talks will not proceed, markets could shift more decisively into risk-off mode,” Brown said, noting that much of Friday’s bond rally could reverse under sustained uncertainty.Global equities had rallied last week, with Wall Street indexes reaching record highs, supported by easing oil prices and expectations of strong corporate earnings.

Bond yields also declined, with the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield falling to its lowest level since mid-March.The U.S. dollar, which had weakened in recent sessions as safe-haven demand eased, edged higher on Monday, with the dollar index up around 0.2% in early trading.

Analysts cautioned that recent market moves suggest heightened volatility ahead. Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Capital Markets noted that the Nasdaq’s extended rally and the dollar’s recent declines indicated markets may have been pricing in a more optimistic scenario than current geopolitical conditions support.

Investors are now closely monitoring developments in the Iran conflict and any signals on diplomatic engagement, as well as upcoming corporate earnings, for direction in global markets.

The shift marks a departure from earlier market resilience, with traders now pricing in longer-term disruptions to energy supply chains and global trade flows. Analysts said the reassessment reflects growing concern that the conflict could inflict sustained economic damage rather than remain a short-lived shock.

Global equities extended losses, with the S&P 500 falling 1.5% on Friday as major technology firms led declines, while futures dropped a further 0.6% in Asian trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 3.5%, and China’s CSI 300 Index was on track for its steepest losses since tariff-driven market turmoil last year.

MSCI’s global equities gauge, the MSCI World Index, hit a four-month low on Monday after breaking below its 200-day moving average, a key technical level closely watched by investors.

Market participants said the selloff reflected waning confidence in valuations following a rally that had been underpinned by expectations of limited geopolitical fallout.

Investors are increasing cash holdings and reducing leveraged positions across major markets, according to fund managers. The reallocation reflects a broader move to hedge against prolonged instability, with energy stocks emerging as relative beneficiaries amid expectations of tighter supply.

Aaron Costello, head of Asia at Cambridge Associates, said markets had previously been conditioned to expect rapid reversals in geopolitical tensions but were now adjusting to the likelihood of escalation. Speaking at a Milken Institute event in Hong Kong, he said investors were beginning to factor in the depletion of reserves and stockpiles if the conflict persists.

Karen Jorritsma, head of Australian equities at RBC Capital Markets, said the speed of the selloff pointed to weak conviction behind earlier gains, with investors exiting positions quickly as risks mount.

Damage to critical energy infrastructure and supply routes is reinforcing expectations of lasting economic impact. Investors are closely monitoring developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil shipments, as tensions raise the risk of prolonged supply constraints.

Recent disruptions have already affected liquefied natural gas flows, with nearly a fifth of Qatar’s export capacity reportedly knocked out by Iranian attacks, according to statements cited by Reuters last week. Market participants said such disruptions could have multi-year implications for contracts and pricing if sustained.

The prospect of continued supply shocks has led investors to reassess the effectiveness of potential policy responses, including interest rate cuts or diplomatic shifts, in offsetting the broader economic fallout.