At least 682 people were confirmed missing as of March 16, making the start of 2026 the deadliest on record for the route, according to the International Organization for Migration, though officials say the true toll is likely significantly higher.

Humanitarian groups and researchers say a growing lack of transparency from authorities is obscuring the number of deaths at sea, with fewer incidents documented or independently verified.

“It’s a strategy of silence,” said Matteo Villa of the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, pointing to the absence of official data releases and limited responses to media inquiries.Even the IOM has struggled to track cases. Julia Black, who leads its Missing Migrants Project, said the agency has created a separate dataset for “unverifiable cases,” with more than 400 already recorded this year alone.

Concerns intensified after Cyclone Harry struck in late January, bringing heavy rain, strong winds and high waves that disrupted migration routes.Groups including Refugees in Libya reported more than 1,000 people missing following the storm, though authorities have neither confirmed nor denied those figures.

In the weeks after the cyclone, bodies were found along coastlines in Italy and Libya, while others were seen floating at sea. Only one known survivor has been identified from boats reported missing during that period.Limited official responseRepeated requests for information by media outlets to authorities in Italy, Tunisia and Malta have gone unanswered.

Agencies have either declined to comment or said they lack verified information.Frontex said it detected several migrant boats during the cyclone period, with some rescued, but confirmed that the fate of others remains unknown.

Analysts say the information gap reflects a broader policy shift. Tunisia curtailed public data on migrant interceptions in 2024, citing security concerns, while Italy gradually reduced reporting on rescue operations, discontinuing detailed updates in recent years.

The tightening flow of information has coincided with wider crackdowns on migration across the region, including restrictions on humanitarian groups and reduced funding, limiting independent monitoring.

For families of missing migrants, the absence of verified information has compounded the humanitarian toll, leaving many without answers about the fate of their relatives.

A Pakistani security official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that Pakistan conducted the strikes overnight but said the targets were fighters belonging to the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group Islamabad accuses of carrying out attacks inside Pakistan.

Khalil Zadran, spokesman for Kabul police, said the bombardment struck homes in the Afghan capital, leaving four people dead and 15 injured. Women and children were among the victims, he said.

The strikes occurred as hostilities between Afghanistan and Pakistan have intensified along their shared frontier, with both sides accusing each other of escalating violence.

Taliban government spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said Pakistani strikes also targeted the southern province of Kandahar Province and the eastern provinces of Paktia Province and Paktika Province, all of which lie near the border with Pakistan.

In Kandahar, air strikes hit a fuel depot used by Kam Air near the city’s airport. The company supplies fuel to civilian airlines as well as aircraft operated by the United Nations, according to Afghan officials.

Pakistan has said its operations target militant groups and insists that its military has not killed civilians during the campaign. Casualty figures reported by both sides have been difficult to verify independently.

Tensions between the two neighbours have escalated sharply since late February.According to Afghan authorities, the latest clashes follow an offensive launched by Afghanistan on Feb.

26 along the border in response to earlier Pakistani air strikes targeting the TTP.Pakistan subsequently declared what it described as “open war” against Taliban authorities and carried out strikes in Kabul on Feb. 27.

Cross-border fighting has since intensified, including artillery and mortar exchanges in eastern Afghanistan. Afghan officials said four members of the same family, including two children, were killed in recent shelling in Khost Province.

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) said that Pakistani military operations between Feb. 26 and March 5 had killed 56 civilians in Afghanistan, including 24 children.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees said the violence has forced about 115,000 people to leave their homes.Clashes between Afghan and Pakistani forces have also disrupted trade and forced residents near the frontier to flee their communities in recent weeks.

The U.N. refugee agency said the estimate was based on preliminary assessments of the number of households forced to leave their homes during the fighting. The conflict has triggered large-scale internal displacement across affected areas as residents move to safer locations within the country.

“This figure is likely to continue rising as hostilities persist, marking a worrying escalation in humanitarian needs,” UNHCR said in a statement.

The agency said the 3.2 million figure reflects early data gathered from humanitarian monitoring and may change as more information becomes available from affected regions.

UNHCR noted that displacement inside Iran has intensified since the outbreak of the conflict at the end of February, with families relocating from areas affected by military activity.

The agency warned that the growing number of displaced people is increasing pressure on humanitarian services and assistance networks.

UNHCR said the continuing hostilities could further expand the scale of internal displacement and humanitarian needs in the coming weeks as assessments continue.

The warning came as fighting intensified following a U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran that began on Feb. 28, prompting Israeli evacuation orders across southern Lebanon and parts of Beirut. The developments have triggered significant population movements both within Lebanon and across its borders, according to the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).Mass displacement across LebanonAyaki Ito, the UNHCR’s Director of Emergency and Programme Support, said the agency had formally classified the unfolding situation as a major humanitarian emergency requiring urgent international response.“UNHCR has declared the escalating crisis in the Middle East as a major humanitarian emergency requiring an immediate response across the region and into Southeast Asia,” Ito told a press briefing in Geneva.According to UNHCR estimates, nearly 100,000 people have been displaced inside Lebanon as Israeli evacuation orders and ongoing hostilities forced residents to leave their homes. Tens of thousands of Syrian refugees who had previously sought safety in Lebanon have also returned across the border into Syria amid growing insecurity.The agency said the pace and scale of displacement remained fluid and warned that available figures were likely an underestimate because population movements were continuing and many families had not yet been formally registered.

Displacement reported inside IranUNHCR officials also reported early signs of internal displacement in Iran linked to the same conflict dynamics.Ito said roughly 100,000 people had already been displaced inside Iran in the first days of the conflict. UNHCR staff operating in the country have been receiving hundreds of calls each day from people seeking assistance or information on humanitarian support.The agency did not provide details on the precise locations of displacement but said the scale of requests for help indicated that the humanitarian impact of the conflict was expanding rapidly.UN calls for urgent responseUNHCR said the emergency classification allows it to mobilize additional resources, staff and operational capacity to respond to the growing humanitarian needs.Officials warned that the crisis could spread beyond the immediate conflict zone as displacement pressures increase across neighbouring countries already hosting large refugee populations.The agency urged international donors and humanitarian partners to prepare for a sustained response as the conflict continues to drive population movements across the Middle East.