If Iran has such capabilities, then why doesn’t it deploy them in Syria to protect its forces?

On September 1, the Iranian regime’s propaganda machine, on the anniversary of the formation of its air defense force, announced another new achievement in its military industry and unveiled two new products, the so-called Borhan Air defense system, and the Alborz 3D radar.

The Iranian regime claims that the Alborz radar system can simultaneously intercept 300 targets within 450 km and the Borhan analysis system, after analyzing the information obtained, transmits the information to the command center in the shortest time so that the decision to destroy the target can be made. 

But what is the reality?

In fact, the Iranian regime is not only incapable of building such systems but cannot even make much simpler tools. It suffices to examine the events of last January to find out the truth about Iranian technical capability.  

At 6:19 a.m., shortly after takeoff from Tehran Airport, a Ukrainian passenger Jet was hit by two missiles and shot down by Tehran air defense, killing all 176 people on board, including innocent men, women, and children.  

Iran immediately denied launching any missiles at the plane, and even before the plane’s black box was obtained and analyzed, blamed the crash on the plane’s technical defect.  

The Iranian regime wanted to hide the scandal it had created. And when the news of the downing of the plane by the Tehran anti-air defense system leaked to the media, a spokesman for the Iranian Armed Forces called the claim a “mere lie” and stressed that “This is being pursued by the enemies in favor of the Americans and this is another conspiracy in the field of psychological warfare.” 

But shortly afterward the US intelligence officials said that infrared satellite imagery showed with certainty the firing of two surface-to-air missiles approaching the fuselage. 

And, of course, later the video footage of the second missile approaching and hitting the plane, by a resident of the area who witnessed the incident and was able to record it with his cell phone was shown on social networks and took away the possibility of further denial from the Iranian regime.

After three days, Ali Haji Zadeh, the IRGC’s Air defense commander was forced to confirm that the plane had been shot down by an operator of the Air defense system, who had mistaken it for a cruise missile and fired at it! 

Imagine when the Iranian Regime’s Air defense system is not even able to differentiate a passenger plane that took off a few minutes before from Tehran airport and is gaining altitude heading west with a cruise missile that is ten times smaller in size and heading toward Tehran, and a command system that is not able to analyze such a thing, then how can one expect such a baseless claim that Iran has built systems that can simultaneously intercept 300 targets at a distance of 450 kilometers?

Of course, a glance at the Iranian regime’s forces in Syria fully clarifies the bogusness of this claim.  

In Syria, we witness Israel continuously targeting bases and forces affiliated with the Iranian regime with planes and missiles, inflicting heavy casualties on them each time. But so far, the Iranian regime has not been able to take any action against these Israeli attacks. This situation is so humiliating to the Iranian Regime that they do not even publish the news of these attacks and announce the casualties in these attacks as a result of other incidents! 

The question is if Iran has such capabilities that it claims, why doesn’t it deploy them in Syria to protect its forces? Of course, the answer is obvious because it does not have such a capability.

On the other hand, one might ask why do some media outlets in other countries publish this Iranian propaganda news? And why do countries like the United States, which are fully aware of the propaganda nature of these claims, remain silent about them?  

The reason is that although they are fully aware of the capabilities of the Iranian regime and the futility of these claims, such news is useful for their arms sales to countries in the region, and as a result, they not only do not react negatively to such news but also the publication of this news is welcomed. 

The claim of a country that cannot even build a complete automobile and assembles cars that were produced with the technology of 30 years ago and are not even allowed to drive them in the European countries’ roads should not be taken seriously. These claims by the Iranian regime have no other use than to boost the morale of their unmotivated forces and are baseless propaganda. 

Cyrus Yaqubi is a Research Analyst and Iranian Foreign Affairs Commentator investigating the social issues and economy of the Middle East countries in general and Iran in particular.

And trust cannot exist as long as Raisi’s regime does.

The very selection of Ebrahim Raisi as an electoral candidate, and then his victory highlighted the sham that is Iran’s electoral process.

Known widely in Iran as the “Hanging Judge” or “The Butcher of Tehran” for his direct role in massacring thousands of political prisoners, Raisi as the president of the Islamic Republic should make clear to the world what has long been clear to the people of Iran: this regime cannot be dealt with because it cannot be trusted.

For nearly half of the regime’s bloody rule, many outside Iran have touted the notion of “reform” or “moderation” within the Islamic Republic establishment. Criminal clerics like Hassan Rouhani and their allies like Javad Zarif have been held out as figures with whom reasoning is possible and for whom Iran’s national interests outweigh those of the system.

Regime apologists who spent years diverting international attention from the Islamic Republic’s crimes against humanity at home and terrorism abroad by promoting the false notion of regime moderation have now pivoted to blame the United States for Raisi’s election. Some have even begun making the case that the man who personally handled the executions of children is not as bad as he may seem.

No matter how well-financed and well-spoken the Islamic Republic’s foreign propaganda machine is it will not be able to change the fact that the hardliners it long said could not be trusted now occupy every relevant position within the Islamic Republic. Their rhetoric, despite its eloquent English and well-placed publication, must defend Raisi’s reality rather than a Viennese fantasy.

In reality, the Islamic Republic cannot be trusted. The facade of trust manufactured by “moderates” like Zarif is now largely discredited and irrelevant due largely to missteps by the moderates themselves. The trust, or rather contrived confidence, during the Obama administration, was based largely on wishful thinking. Both President Obama and Secretary Kerry repeatedly referred to the purported fatwa, or religious edict, that Ali Khamenei had issued against the development of nuclear weapons.

Recently, however, the regime’s intelligence minister has disavowed the fatwa for which Secretary Kerry had “great respect” and said the Islamic Republic was not bound by the edict. Speaking on state television, he said that if Iran were pressured it may indeed develop a nuclear bomb. A theocracy that cannot be trusted to respect even its religious edicts can certainly not be trusted to be loyal to a treaty with countries it has sworn to destroy.

If abrogating a fatwa seems inconsequential, the Iranian regime has long proven itself an untrustworthy partner through various additional breaches of international treaties. Indeed, the very basis of the ongoing talks in Vienna, to the impartial observer, appear more comedy than drama. The P5+1 strategy is simple: diplomatic negotiations in an attempt to control the regime’s nuclear program via an international accord. What they ignore is the Islamic Republic’s long track record of ignoring and breaking international accords, both diplomatic and nuclear.

The Iranian “diplomats”’ sitting across from the French, Germans, and Americans in Vienna represent a regime with no respect for the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations which protects the very diplomats attempting to renegotiate the defunct JCPOA. From taking American diplomats hostage for 444 days as its diplomatic debut to the world, its attempted assassination of the Saudi Ambassador in Washington, and then its sponsored storming of the British Embassy in Tehran, the Islamic Republic has long shown a blatant disregard for diplomacy and indeed a violent animosity towards it.

Iran consistently violates the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty despite remaining an active signatory. It has blocked IAEA access to nuclear sites and continued on its enrichment path in clear breach of mutually agreed to IAEA deadlines and United Nations resolutions. If the regime in Tehran can’t be trusted to respect treaties on diplomacy and nuclear issues it has already signed, why should it now be trusted to respect a diplomatic agreement on its nuclear program?

It can’t. Ebrahim Raisi is a man who personally ordered and watched as Iranian prisoners were raped, newborn babies were thrown against the floor, and activists were executed. His regime violates its own religious edicts and dozens of international laws and conventions. Where trust does not exist, no relationship can exist. And trust cannot exist as long as Raisi’s regime does.

Now is not the time to make a deal with Raisi and his regime. Now is the time to focus on the vast majority of Iranians who boycotted the sham election and are saying, with one voice, “No to the Islamic Republic.”

Cameron Khansarinia is Policy Director National Union for Democracy in Iran. He is an alumni of Harvard University. He tweets under @Khansarinia.

Khamenei has resorted to various tricks and tactics…

The presidential elections of the Islamic Republic of Iran will take place on June 18, 2021.

The presidency has already turned into a war between the factions of Khamenei and Rouhani with two different strategies for the survival of the mullahs’ regime.

Khamenei, by appointing Raisi as head of the judiciary and Qalibaf as head of the legislature has taken two steps towards gaining total control and is now taking the next step by putting the engineering for the head of the executive branch, the President, on the agenda of organizations and institutions affiliated with him.

Fear of upcoming uprisings and protests puts Khamenei under pressure to carry out these plans, having concluded with the IRGC that the best strategy is to close all the gaps at the top of the power pyramid to facilitate swift and decisive response to future uprisings by eliminating regime factional infighting.

To achieve this, Khamenei has resorted to various tricks and tactics. For example, under the pretext of “meetings with artists and cultural and social experts,” a documentary called “Unofficial” was broadcast on TV and social media on December 25, 2020. The clips show brief meetings throughout recent years between the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a number of cultural, artistic, and scientific activists.

The purpose of publishing these clips in this situation is to show the friendship and closeness of the leader with the people. In these films, the artists criticize the dictator without any worries or fears and Khamenei is shown responding with complete equanimity.

One contemporary historian says dictators usually win elections by force or fraud, but the next problem is how to retain power. Maintaining power is not possible by intimidation, arrest, and execution alone. The dictator must deceive the people in various ways with a charismatic personality and a vision of the promised utopia. They are especially interested in foreign journalists and intellectuals presenting a pleasant image of them as popular, different, and profound leaders abroad.

Khamenei also pursues his objective of election engineering with these scenes. In one clip, a young man described as a “jihadi activist” criticized the government for neglect of the youth and the appointment of older people to all the important jobs in the country, to which Khamenei replies: “For your intended young people to take on significant managerial responsibilities, the government must be formed by a young person.”

Khamenei says by advising that this problem is not getting solved “God willing, we will put youth to manage top positions. Our hearts want this to happen.”

“The solution to the country’s problems is the young Hezbollah government of the young believer,” Khamenei said on May 17, 2020.

These clips are shown while the economic crisis and the living conditions of the people are catastrophic and financial and administrative corruption has spread throughout the country. The protests of December 2018 and November 2019 left no legitimacy for the regime and the greater slump than ever before of the parliamentary elections in February 2020 is lurking in the shadows for next year’s presidential election.

More importantly, the awe of the regime has collapsed after three strategic blows, namely the assassinations of Qassem Soleimani and Fakhrizadeh and the trial of the diplomat terrorist Assadollah Assadi in Belgium!

Khamenei needs his bag of tricks to advance his plans!

Hassan Mahmoudi is a Europe-based social analyst, researcher, independent observer, and commentator of Middle Eastern and Iranian Politics. He tweets under @hassan_mahmou1.