Producers emphasise stability as global demand signals soften and supply uncertainties grow.

OPEC+ has decided to keep oil production levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026, signalling a cautious approach as the group balances market stability with concerns about oversupply and shifting geopolitical conditions.

The decision reflects wider efforts within the alliance to preserve a predictable energy environment amid fluctuating economic indicators, evolving trade flows and ongoing geopolitical negotiations involving key global players.

The coalition, which accounts for roughly half of the world’s oil supply, met at a time when discussions aimed at easing tensions between major nations could reshape energy trade patterns.

Participants noted that potential diplomatic developments could influence sanctions-linked production and alter supply levels across several major exporting countries.

Market analysts observed that the stabilising decision comes as benchmark crude prices have weakened in recent months, prompting producers to prioritise consistency over rapid expansion.

The group’s choice indicates awareness of rising inventories, demand uncertainty and the need for careful coordination among members with differing production capabilities.

More than 3 million barrels per day of earlier output cuts remain active, representing an estimated 3% of global demand and serving as a central component in OPEC+ efforts to support balanced pricing.

These include long-term reductions scheduled to continue through 2026, as well as phased adjustments introduced by selected member countries in recent months.

The alliance confirmed that eight member states will continue to pause planned output increases during the first quarter of 2026, following the earlier return of nearly 3 million barrels per day to the market since April 2025.

Leaders emphasised that the pause is intended to limit volatility and allow producers to align strategies with real-time global demand signals.

Another major outcome of the meeting was the approval of a new mechanism for assessing members’ maximum production capacity, which will serve as the foundation for setting output baselines from 2027 onward.

This evaluation process, scheduled to run from January through September 2026, aims to ensure that quota allocations accurately reflect technical capabilities and long-term investment progress.

Independent assessment firms will analyse the production potential of most OPEC+ members, while countries under sanctions will be evaluated through separate arrangements tailored to their circumstances.

This approach seeks to maintain fairness and transparency while accommodating unique economic and regulatory challenges faced by individual states.

Capacity measurement has been a long-standing point of debate within the group, with nations such as the United Arab Emirates seeking recognition for expanded investment-driven capabilities.

Meanwhile, several African members, whose production has declined in recent years, have advocated against reductions to their established quotas, stressing the need to preserve economic stability.

The introduction of the new assessment mechanism reflects a broader strategy to modernise internal governance and reduce future disputes over quota allocations.

Officials hope that a structured, data-driven process will help streamline decision-making and support the group’s long-term cohesion.

While global oil markets continue to navigate a complex environment of shifting demand patterns, technological advancements and energy-transition policies, OPEC+ reiterated its commitment to maintaining equilibrium.

Producers indicated that additional adjustments will be considered if market conditions require further calibration in the months ahead.

Observers note that the coming year may present challenges as economic growth forecasts vary by region and geopolitical negotiations influence trade dynamics.

However, the group’s latest actions suggest a preference for predictable supply management as it monitors trends in consumption, investment and international policy.

Producers’ alliance prepares for a carefully balanced production increase amid signs of market recovery and renewed optimism in global energy stability.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, are poised to approve a moderate increase in oil production targets, according to sources close to the discussions.

The move, expected to be finalized at Sunday’s ministerial meeting, highlights the group’s steady and balanced approach to maintaining energy market stability amid shifting global economic conditions.

The producers’ alliance is expected to agree to raise output by approximately 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for December. This measured adjustment reflects OPEC+’s ongoing commitment to ensuring stable supply without triggering oversupply concerns.

The decision comes as oil markets show signs of recovery following months of volatility influenced by shifting demand, sanctions, and broader economic factors.

Industry observers view this anticipated increase as a positive signal for both producers and consumers. It underscores OPEC+’s confidence in the gradual strengthening of global energy demand while maintaining its cautious strategy to balance production growth with price stability.

Analysts from RBC, Rystad, Commerzbank, and SEB forecast that this incremental rise aligns with the group’s broader goal of fostering a sustainable and predictable energy market.

Since April, OPEC+ has gradually raised output by more than 2.7 million barrels per day—around 2.5% of global supply. However, the group slowed the pace of its increases in recent months, responding prudently to concerns about potential oversupply.

This careful moderation is widely seen as a reflection of OPEC+’s disciplined management approach, prioritizing long-term market equilibrium over short-term gains.

A key factor influencing the current discussions is the introduction of new Western sanctions on Russia, one of the group’s leading members.

Despite these challenges, Moscow continues to play a vital role in the alliance’s coordination efforts. Analysts say that OPEC+’s cooperative framework allows for flexibility in addressing such issues while maintaining the group’s collective strength and unity.

Oil prices, which dipped to a five-month low of around $60 per barrel in late October, have since rebounded to approximately $65. The recovery is attributed to renewed optimism surrounding international trade discussions and the impact of sanctions on global supply chains.

The price rebound reinforces the perception that OPEC+’s cautious strategy has helped prevent sharper declines and sustained investor confidence.

Eight key member nations—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan, and Algeria—are expected to endorse the proposed production increase.

Sources indicate that a pause in the hike remains a secondary option, should the market require additional stability measures. The meeting, scheduled for 1600 GMT, will finalize the group’s December output plan.

Historically, OPEC+ has shown remarkable adaptability in responding to global energy shifts. After implementing significant production cuts totaling 5.85 million bpd during periods of reduced demand, the group began gradually unwinding those cuts earlier this year.

The current adjustment continues that trend, symbolizing OPEC+’s confidence in the resilience of the energy market and the gradual restoration of balance between supply and demand.

Energy analysts note that the alliance’s actions are shaping a more predictable future for oil markets, especially as economies recover from global disruptions.

OPEC+’s emphasis on moderation and collaboration ensures that both energy producers and consumers benefit from a more stable environment, encouraging investment and growth across the sector.

As OPEC+ members convene to finalize their decision, the consensus remains that the group’s steady hand and forward-looking policies are crucial for global energy confidence.

The modest increase, supported by a diverse coalition of member nations, reflects the organization’s ongoing commitment to maintaining stability, supporting recovery, and building a sustainable foundation for future growth.

Hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin went to Riyadh in a hastily arranged visit to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Kremlin released a joint Russian-Saudi statement about the conclusion of their discussions.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies agreed last week to new voluntary cuts of about 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), led by Saudi Arabia and Russia rolling over their voluntary cuts of 1.3 million barrel per day (bpd).

“In the field of energy, the two sides commended the close cooperation between them and the successful efforts of the OPEC+ countries in enhancing the stability of global oil markets,” the statement released by the Kremlin said.

“They stressed the importance of continuing this cooperation, and the need for all participating countries to join to the OPEC+ agreement, in a way that serves the interests of producers and consumers and supports the growth of the global economy,” the statement, which was in Russian, added.

The Russian version used the word “join” while an English translation of the statement, also released by the Kremlin, used the word “adhere” to the OPEC+ agreement.

Saudi state news agency SPA said that the crown prince, known as MbS, and Putin had stressed in their meeting the need for OPEC+ members to commit to the group’s agreement.

Sources in the oil market said such an explicit public remark from the Kremlin and the kingdom about “joining” cuts appeared like a hint aimed at specific oil powers.

Putin will hold talks with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Moscow on Thursday.

Mystery still surrounds Putin’s trip to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, on which he was escorted by four Russian fighter jets, and it was not immediately clear what particular issue was so important for Putin to make a rare overseas trip.

The Kremlin said Putin and MbS also discussed the conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine and Yemen, the Iranian nuclear programme and deepening defence cooperation.

OPEC+

OPEC+, whose members pump more than 40% of the world’s oil, had to delay its meeting over disagreements about output with African producers, though some oil traders said they suspected a deeper schism inside the group.

After the producers decided to cut, oil prices fell to a five month low – a clear sign that the market had expected more forthright action from OPEC+.

Putin and MbS, who together control one-fifth of the oil pumped each day, were shown with smiles and engaging in an effusive handshake as Putin emerged from his car in the Saudi capital.

Both MbS, 38, and Putin, 71, want – and need – high prices for oil – the lifeblood of their economies. The question for both is how much of the burden each should take on to keep prices aloft – and how to verify the burden.

At the talks with MbS, Putin said that a planned visit by the prince to Russia had been changed at the last minute, prompting him to visit Riyadh.

“We awaited you in Moscow,” Putin told MbS with a smile.

“I know that events forced a correction to those plans but as I have already said nothing can prevent the development of our friendly relations.”

Putin then said: “But the next meeting should be in Moscow.”

The crown prince said through a Russian translator that he was of course ready to do that.

“Then we are agreed,” Putin said.

A Saudi account of the meeting said the crown prince praised joint coordination between the two countries “that helped remove tensions in Middle East”.

Putin and the crown prince, de facto ruler of the world’s largest crude exporter, had the hastily arranged talks hours after the Kremlin leader visited Saudi Arabia’s Gulf neighbour, the United Arab Emirates.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, quoted by Russian news agencies, said cooperation would continue within OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia.

The meeting took place after a fall in oil prices despite an OPEC+ pledge to cut output further.

“We talked again about cooperation in OPEC+,” Interfax news agency quoted Peskov as saying. “The parties agree that our countries bear a great responsibility for interaction in order to maintain the international energy market at the proper level, in a stable, predictable state.”

Putin, who has rarely left Russia since sending troops into Ukraine in February 2022, had also been expected to discuss Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza.

The Saudi Press Agency quoted the crown prince as saying: “We share many interests and many files that we are working on together for the benefit of Russia, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Middle East and the world as well.”

In remarks at the beginning of their talks, shown earlier on Russian television, Putin thanked MbS, as the crown prince is widely known, for his invitation. He had originally expected him to visit Moscow, “but there were changes to plans”.

Their next meeting should take place in Moscow, he said, and “Nothing can prevent the development of our friendly relations.”

Russia’s defence ministry had earlier shown the Kremlin chief’s Ilyushin-96 aircraft flanked by Sukhoi-35S fighter jets on its flight from Russia to the United Arab Emirates.

Putin’s delegation included top oil, economy, foreign affairs, space, nuclear energy officials and business leaders.

At his first stop in Abu Dhabi, President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan welcomed his “dear friend”, while a fly-past of UAE jets trailed the colours of the Russian flag.

“Our relations, largely due to your position, have reached an unprecedentedly high level,” Putin told him. “The UAE is Russia’s main trading partner in the Arab world.”

Putin said Russia and the UAE cooperated as part of OPEC+, whose members pump more than 40% of the world’s oil, adding that they would discuss the Israeli-Hamas conflict and Ukraine.

His first face-to-face talks with MbS since October 2019 came days after an OPEC+ meeting was delayed over disagreements – superseding what should have been an MbS visit to Moscow.

Putin’s last visit to the region was in July 2022, when he met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Iran. The Russian president was due to host his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi in Moscow on Thursday.

Close Relations

Putin and MbS, who together control one-fifth of the oil pumped each day, have long enjoyed close relations, though both have at times been ostracised by the West.

At a G20 summit in 2018, two months after the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in a Saudi consulate, Putin and MbS high-fived and shook hands with smiles.

MbS has sought to reassert Saudi Arabia as a regional power with less deference to the United States, which supplies Riyadh with most of its weapons.

Putin says Russia is locked in an existential battle with the West and has courted allies across the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and Asia amid Western attempts to isolate Moscow.

Both MbS and Putin need high prices for oil, the lifeblood of their economies. The question is how much of the burden each should take on to keep prices aloft – and how to verify their contributions.

Last month, OPEC+ delayed a meeting by several days due to disagreements over production levels. The Saudi energy minister said OPEC+ also wanted more assurances from Moscow that it would make good on its pledge to reduce fuel exports.

Relations between Saudi Arabia and Russia in OPEC+ have been uneasy at times. A deal on cutting exports almost broke down in March 2020, but they managed to make up within weeks and OPEC+ agreed to record cuts of almost 10% of global demand.

Brent crude futures inched up 14 cents to $78.17 a barrel by 0735 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 15 cents to $73.19.

Comments by Saudi Arabia’s energy minister that OPEC+ production cuts could continue past the first quarter of 2024, if needed, lent some price support, said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst for Asia pacific at OANDA.

Oil prices had declined on Monday on doubts that OPEC+ supply cuts would have a significant impact, and as a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on commodity prices in general, said CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng.

A stronger dollar typically makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+, agreed on Thursday to voluntary output cuts of about 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first quarter of 2024, led by Saudi Arabia rolling over its current voluntary cut.

At least 1.3 million bpd of those cuts, however, were an extension of voluntary curbs that Saudi Arabia and Russia already had in place.

Resumption of fighting in the Israel-Hamas war, however, stoked supply concern, as did attacks on three commercial vessels in international waters in the southern Red Sea.

Those incidents followed a series of attacks in Middle-Eastern waters since war broke out between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas on Oct. 7.

Data on Tuesday showed U.S. factory orders fell by more than analysts had expected in October and the most in over three years, raising concerns about the health of U.S. demand.

That bolstered the view the rise in interest rates was beginning to limit spending, analysts said.

Included in this figure is an extension of existing Saudi and Russian voluntary cuts of 1.3 million bpd, meaning the new element of the cut is about 900,000 bpd. The new cuts come on top of earlier curbs announced in various steps since late 2022.

OPEC+ negotiations over production quotas have often been difficult in the past, most recently at their June meeting.

What Cuts Were In Place Before Thursday?

OPEC+ in June extended oil output cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5% of daily global demand, until the end of 2024.

In addition, Saudi Arabia since July has been making a 1 million-bpd voluntary reduction in output lasting until the end of December 2023. A Russian cut in oil exports of 300,000 bpd also lasts until the end of 2023.

How Does The New Deal Affect Output Targets?

The latest round of cuts was announced by the individual countries on Thursday at the end of their online meeting.

OPEC+ issued a statement summarising the voluntary cuts as amounting to 2.2 million bpd and said they come on top of earlier ones announced in April 2023.

OPEC+ also revised 2024 targets for Nigeria, Angola and Congo after reviews by outside analysts. Angola has protested to OPEC about its lower 2024 quota which it says is too low.

The following table shows OPEC+ pledged cuts and production targets for the first quarter of 2024 in millions of barrels per day, based on information from OPEC, individual nations and Reuters calculations.

* IEA figures

** Angola, Congo and Nigeria targets taken from OPEC statement putting their achievable production at this level

*** Russia is cutting its oil and product exports by 300,000 bpd until the end of 2023 and promised to deepen the cuts to 500,000 bpd of oil and oil product exports in the first quarter 2024.

**** Figure is total for Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Sudan and South Sudan

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was asked in a telephone briefing if any agreements should be expected following the OPEC+ meeting, and whether any talks were planned between Putin and the Saudi crown prince.

“So far, no phone contacts are planned for this week,” he said. “As for OPEC+, as you know, we never announce anything. This is quite delicate work, responsible work. Russia continues contacts with its counterparts in this format.”

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, will hold an online meeting to decide oil output levels on Thursday.

The meeting was postponed from Nov. 26. OPEC+ sources said this was because of a disagreement over output levels for African producers, although sources have since said the group has moved closer to a compromise on this point.

Several analysts have said they expect OPEC+ to extend or even deepen supply cuts into next year in order to support prices, which on Monday were trading just above $80 a barrel , down from near $98 in late September.

An OPEC+ source said he expected there to be an option for a “collective further reduction” on Thursday, without providing details. OPEC+ sources earlier this month said the group was set to consider additional cuts.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, will begin its online meetings to decide oil output levels at 1300 GMT on Thursday, according to a draft agenda seen by Reuters on Monday.

The meeting was delayed from Nov. 26. OPEC+ sources said this was because of a disagreement over output levels for African producers, although sources have since said the group has moved closer to a compromise on this point.

OPEC member Kuwait is committed to any decisions issued by OPEC, especially those that concern market quotas and oil production, the country’s oil ministry said in a post on social media platform X.

On Thursday at 1300 GMT, ministers on an advisory panel called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee hold talks. This will be followed at 1400 GMT by a meeting of the full policy-making group of OPEC+ ministers, the agenda showed.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC+ have already pledged total oil output cuts of about 5 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5% of daily global demand, in a series of steps that started in late 2022.

This includes Saudi Arabia’s additional voluntary production cut of 1 million bpd which is due to expire at the end of December, and a Russian export cut of 300,000 bpd also until the end of the year.

Brent crude futures inched down by 6 cents, or 0.07%, to $81.36 at 0400 GMT, after settling down 0.7% in the previous session.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slid 66 cents, or 0.86%, to $76.44, from its Wednesday close. There was no settlement for WTI on Thursday as it was a U.S. public holiday.

Both contracts are on track to mark their first weekly rise in five, supported by expectations that OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, could reduce supply to balance the markets into 2024.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together known as OPEC+, surprised the market with an announcement on Wednesday that it would postpone a ministerial meeting by four days to Nov. 30, after producers struggled to come to a consensus on production levels.

“The most likely outcome now appears to be an extension of existing cuts,” Tony Sycamore, a Sydney-based market analyst at IG, wrote in a note.

The surprise delay had initially brought Brent futures down by as much as 4% and WTI by as much as 5% in Wednesday’s intraday trading.

Trading remained subdued because of the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S.

The near-term Chinese outlook appeared stronger, supporting market sentiment.

“The recent Chinese data and fresh aid to the indebted properties can be positive for the oil market’s near-term trend,” said Tina Teng, a market analyst at CMC Markets.

Chinese stocks rose on Thursday amid expectations that China would direct more stimulus to the struggling property sector.

Yet those gains may be capped by higher U.S. crude stockpiles and poor refining margins, leading to weaker crude demand from refineries in the U.S., analysts said.

“Fundamentals developments have been bearish with rising U.S. oil inventories,” ANZ analysts said in a note.

China’s longer-term outlook is lukewarm. Analysts say oil demand growth could weaken to around 4% in the first half of 2024 from strong post-COVID growth levels in 2023, as the country’s property sector crunch weighs on diesel use.

Non-OPEC production growth is set to stay strong with Brazilian state energy firm Petrobras planning to invest $102 billion over the next five years to boost output to 3.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) by 2028 from 2.8 million boepd in 2024.

Brent crude futures rose 14 cents, or 0.17%, to $82.59 a barrel by 0800 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 13 cents, or 0.17%, to $77.90.

Both benchmarks have fallen for four straight weeks, and prices weakened further last week on growing concerns about the demand outlook. Investors remained cautious ahead of Sunday’s scheduled OPEC+ meeting, when the producer group may discuss deepening supply cuts due to slowing global economic growth.

On Monday, both contracts climbed about 2% after three OPEC+ sources told Reuters the group, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers, was set to consider additional oil supply cuts when it meets on Nov. 26.

“The upcoming meeting has been the key central focus for oil prices for now, with sentiments shrugging off the sharp build in U.S. crude inventories,” said Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG.

OPEC+ is likely to extend or even deepen oil supply cuts into next year, analysts have predicted. “While market consensus suggests Saudi Arabia and Russia will be extending voluntary cuts into 2024, any further cuts by other members will hold the key to future prices,” ANZ analysts wrote in a note.

Even if the OPEC+ nations extend their cuts into next year, the global oil market will see a slight supply surplus in 2024, the head of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) oil markets and industry division said on Tuesday.

U.S. crude stocks rose by nearly 9.1 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 17, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

Gasoline inventories dropped by about 1.79 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by about 3.5 million barrels.

U.S. government data on stockpiles is due on Wednesday.

Thursday is a public holiday in the United States.