The world’s largest oil importer boosted production through a combination of intensified drilling at ageing fields, offshore expansion and early-stage shale development, but experts say further gains will be constrained by rising costs and geological limits.

China’s output reached about 4.32 million barrels per day last year, and government targets outlined in its latest five-year plan call for maintaining production near 4 million bpd through 2030.

Industry observers view this level as a strategic baseline to support manufacturing and energy security.

Despite these efforts, China remains heavily dependent on imports, which stood at 11.55 million bpd last year, underscoring the structural gap between domestic supply and demand.

Zhu Weilin said national oil companies are working to sustain output at current levels to guard against supply disruptions, particularly as global markets face volatility.

Much of China’s production resilience comes from mature oilfields such as Daqing oil field, a cornerstone of the country’s energy sector for decades. The field continues to produce roughly 600,000 bpd, supported by advanced recovery techniques.

Engineers have deployed “tertiary recovery” methods, including chemical injection, to extract remaining reserves from ageing wells.

These techniques can increase output by about 20% compared to traditional water-injection methods.The scale of such operations has made China a global leader in enhanced oil recovery, with expertise exported to projects in countries including Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

While shale oil output is expected to grow and potentially double by 2035, analysts say it remains commercially challenging due to higher extraction costs and technical complexity.

Offshore production, another key driver of recent growth, is also showing signs of slowing expansion, further limiting upside potential.

The production plateau comes as China navigates shifting energy dynamics, including slowing economic growth and a transition toward electrification in transport, which is expected to temper demand growth over time.

At the same time, disruptions linked to conflict in the Middle East a region supplying roughly half of China’s crude imports have reinforced the importance of maintaining stable domestic output.

The agency said governments, businesses and households could take immediate steps to reduce fuel demand and mitigate the impact of rising costs, following its decision earlier this month to release record volumes of oil from emergency reserves.

In its latest guidance, the IEA said practical actions such as increased remote work, lower highway speed limits and reduced reliance on air travel could help curb fuel consumption in the short term. The proposals are aimed at softening the burden on consumers facing higher energy bills.

The agency framed the recommendations as part of a broader strategy to complement supply-side interventions, emphasizing coordinated action across sectors to stabilize markets.

The IEA earlier agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves, marking the largest such move in its history. The United States is contributing the majority of the supply, reflecting its central role in global energy coordination efforts.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the agency remains in close contact with key governments, including major producers and consumers, as part of ongoing energy diplomacy efforts.

“We have recently launched the largest ever release of IEA emergency oil stocks,” Birol said in a statement, adding that discussions with governments are continuing to address market volatility.

The spike in oil prices linked to the conflict has intensified concerns over inflation worldwide, as higher energy costs ripple through transport, manufacturing and household expenses.

Birol said the latest report provides “a menu of immediate and concrete measures” that can be implemented quickly to shield consumers, highlighting the importance of reducing demand alongside boosting supply in times of crisis.