The sharp increase reflects a sustained rise in crude oil prices, driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply typically flows. Tankers stranded in the region have curtailed deliveries, constraining supply and pushing benchmark oil prices higher.

Market analysts say the price trajectory briefly softened in mid-April amid expectations of a potential ceasefire. “There was optimism that this could mark the beginning of the end of the conflict,” said Rob Smith, director of global fuel retail at S&P Global Energy, noting that crude and gasoline prices temporarily declined before reversing course as hostilities persisted.

Crude oil accounts for the largest share of gasoline costs in the United States, representing about 51 percent of pump prices in 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Taxes contribute roughly 17 percent, while refining, distribution, and marketing costs make up the remainder.

The International Energy Agency has described the disruption linked to the Strait of Hormuz as the largest supply shock in oil market history, with prices reaching as high as $112 per barrel in early April. Analysts note that gasoline prices tend to track crude movements closely, with minimal lag.

Additional upward pressure followed US actions in April to block Iranian oil exports, a move analysts say removed a key supply source from global markets. “Iran had been moving an unusually high amount of oil to global markets, which helped moderate prices,” said Jim Krane, an energy research fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute, adding that the restrictions intensified price pressures.

Energy markets have remained highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with fluctuations tied to reports of attacks in the Arabian Gulf or shifts in diplomatic efforts. “The oil market is exquisitely sensitive to what’s coming out of the White House,” said Bob Kleinberg, a research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

The pace of price increases has echoed previous geopolitical shocks, including a 48-cent weekly rise at the outset of the Iran conflict. However, analysts caution that no near-term relief is likely, as prolonged constraints in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to sustain upward pressure on prices.

Even in the event of a durable resolution, market participants say a return to pre-war pricing levels could take months due to lingering risk premiums associated with shipping through the region and heightened insurance costs for oil transport.

Ali Mousavi, Iran’s representative to the United Nations’ maritime agency, made the remarks in an interview published on Friday by China’s Xinhua news agency, prior to U.S. President Donald Trump’s warning that Iranian power infrastructure could be targeted if the strategic waterway was not kept “fully open” within 48 hours.

Mousavi, who also serves as Iran’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, said ships not associated with Iran’s adversaries would be permitted to transit the strait, provided they coordinate security and safety arrangements with Tehran.

He added that Iran would continue working with the International Maritime Organization to ensure maritime safety and the protection of seafarers in the Gulf region.The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage between Iran and Oman, handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, making it one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

Concerns over potential Iranian attacks during the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign have already deterred many vessels from using the route, raising the risk of disruptions to global energy supplies.

Mousavi said diplomacy remained Tehran’s priority but emphasized that a “complete cessation of aggression” and the restoration of mutual trust were essential. He attributed the current situation in the strait to what he described as Israeli and U.S. attacks against Iran.

Trump’s earlier warning has heightened fears of further escalation in the region, with shipping security and energy market stability closely tied to developments in the waterway.