Ministers are set to gather in Santa Marta against the backdrop of fuel shortages and rising prices following what the International Energy Agency has described as the largest oil supply shock on record, driven in part by constraints around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route for global energy supplies.

The conference, co-hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands, was initiated amid frustration with the pace of negotiations under United Nations climate frameworks, where consensus-based processes have struggled to produce a clear pathway for reducing fossil fuel dependence.

Organisers say the current energy crisis has reinforced the strategic need for a managed transition, even as some governments increase coal use in the short term to stabilise domestic supply.Energy security considerations are expected to weigh as heavily as climate commitments during the discussions, reflecting the policy dilemma facing both advanced and developing economies.

Countries including Australia, Canada and Norway are expected to attend alongside emerging producers such as Angola, Mexico and Brazil, as well as coal-reliant economies like Turkiye and Vietnam. European nations including Germany, France and the United Kingdom are also set to participate.

However, several of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers and consumers, including the United States, China, Saudi Arabia and Russia, will not be represented, limiting the scope of any immediate global alignment.Colombia’s environment minister Irene Vélez Torres said the meeting has gained increased relevance in light of recent geopolitical developments, describing it as an opportunity to foster more direct engagement between producers and consumers on an issue often constrained in multilateral forums.

Analysts say the smaller, focused format may allow for more candid discussions but could also dilute outcomes given the diversity of national interests. Climate scientist Bill Hare of Climate Analytics noted that broader participation can make it harder to reach specific commitments, while supporters argue the inclusion of fossil fuel-producing nations marks a necessary step in advancing negotiations.

Participants from climate-vulnerable states, including Tuvalu and Vanuatu, are expected to push for accelerated timelines, citing the disproportionate impact of climate change and their reliance on imported energy. Officials from these countries have framed the current crisis as further evidence of the need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

Global investment in clean energy now outpaces spending on fossil fuels by roughly a factor of two, yet emissions from coal, oil and gas reached a record high in 2025, underscoring the gap between policy commitments and implementation.

The Santa Marta meeting is not expected to yield binding agreements but will contribute to a voluntary roadmap on fossil fuel transition being developed under Brazil’s leadership, as countries continue to grapple with balancing climate goals and energy security.

Farmers in India’s northern grain belt are increasingly worried that a distant conflict in the Gulf could disrupt fertiliser supplies and threaten crop yields, as tensions linked to the closure of a key maritime route reverberate through global commodity markets.

In Punjab, a state central to India’s wheat and rice production, growers say uncertainty over input availability has begun to overshadow routine agricultural planning. Gurvinder Singh, a 52-year-old farmer, said concerns over fertiliser access have intensified in recent weeks as global supply chains face strain.

“We are already struggling with profits,” Singh said. “If we don’t get fertilisers, there will be less yield. That will affect my entire family and the entire region, because we are completely dependent on agriculture.

”Singh’s remarks reflect broader anxieties among farmers who rely heavily on imported fertiliser components, many of which are linked to energy markets and international shipping routes. India is one of the world’s largest consumers of fertilisers, and any disruption in supply can have immediate implications for crop productivity.

The concerns follow Iran’s move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil and gas shipments, in response to strikes by the United States and Israel. The disruption has triggered volatility in energy markets, with ripple effects across industries dependent on fuel and petrochemical inputs.

Fertilisers, particularly nitrogen-based variants, are closely tied to natural gas prices, making them vulnerable to energy supply shocks. Analysts say any sustained increase in fuel costs or shipping disruptions could raise input prices or delay deliveries, affecting farmers during key planting cycles.

In Punjab, often referred to as India’s breadbasket, agriculture remains the primary source of income for millions. Farmers typically follow a rotation of wheat and rice crops, with fertiliser use playing a crucial role in maintaining yields. Any reduction in application due to shortages or high costs could directly impact output.

“We are praying this war stops because it will not spare us either,” Singh said, underscoring the sense of vulnerability among rural communities despite their geographic distance from the conflict.

The potential for supply disruptions comes at a time when many farmers are already facing margin pressures from fluctuating crop prices and rising input costs. Industry observers note that even short-term shortages can have lasting consequences, particularly if they coincide with critical stages of crop development.

India imports a significant portion of its fertiliser requirements, including key raw materials such as potash and phosphates. Supply chains for these inputs are globally integrated, often passing through major shipping routes in the Middle East. Any bottleneck in transit can lead to delays and price spikes in domestic markets.

Government officials have in the past taken steps to secure fertiliser supplies through strategic reserves and international agreements. However, traders say prolonged disruption in maritime logistics could test these buffers, especially if global competition for limited supplies intensifies.

The broader geopolitical situation has also raised concerns about inflationary pressures. Higher energy prices could increase transportation and production costs across sectors, feeding into food prices and complicating economic management.

For farmers like Singh, the uncertainty is immediate and personal. With planting decisions already underway, the availability and affordability of fertilisers will be a key determinant of the upcoming harvest.

As global markets react to developments in the Gulf, the impact is being felt far beyond the region, highlighting the interconnected nature of modern supply chains.

For India’s agricultural heartland, the stakes are tied not only to international diplomacy but also to the livelihoods of millions who depend on stable inputs to sustain production.

Currently the country is grappling with power shortages when a heatwave has driven up demand for cooling.

Gas production between January and May declined by 9% year-on-year and 12% when compared to the same period in 2021.

Egypt, which faces growing demand for gas from its population of 105 million, has been seeking a regional supply role, selling its own gas and re-exporting Israeli gas as liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the Middle East, Africa and Europe.

It received a boost from Italian company Eni’s discovery of the giant Zohr gas field in 2015, and started importing from Israel in 2020.

But there have been few large discoveries since, and a significant increase in supplies from Israel would only be possible after major infrastructure investment.

Production at Zohr stands at 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), the government said last month, down from 2.7 bcfd in 2019.Reuters Graphics

Analysts and an industry source said water infiltration issues at Zohr, which had an estimated 30 tcf of gas reserves and a design capacity of 3.2 bcfd, have held back production.

“The decline in production from the field is having a notable impact on gas output as the field accounts for approximately 40% of the country’s total gas production,” said Olumide Ajayi, senior LNG analyst at LSEG.

Both Eni and the Egyptian government last week denied production problems at Zohr. The government says work is under way on Zohr’s 20th well.

The government in July announced the start of a $1.8 billion programme to drill natural gas exploration wells in the Mediterranean Sea and Nile Delta, and the discovery of an offshore field, Nargis, estimated to hold around 2.5 tcf of reserves.

However, in July ratings agency Fitch revised down its forecast for Egypt’s gas production in 2023, to a 4% decline from its previous prediction of 1% y-o-y growth. It cited a thin project pipeline and high depletion rates at existing fields.

These include declining output from the Western Desert, West Delta Deep Marine and onshore fields in the Nile Delta, said Siamak Adibi of consultancy FGE.

Rolling blackouts this summer have also raised questions about gas supply, which accounted for 77% of Egypt’s power generation in 2022, according to BMI Research.

In 2022, the government announced a decision to ration electricity so it could export more gas. However, it said last month it would halt exports until the autumn to meet domestic demand.

“This gas rationing for export coupled with the increase in electricity demand and the shortage of gas has contributed to the power shortages in Egypt,” said Lerato Monaisa, BMI Research’s senior power and renewables analyst.

Electricity Minister Mohamed Shaker told local media in July that the power cuts resulted from his ministry receiving lower quantities of natural gas and fuel oil.

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly later denied that natural gas shortages or exports were a factor in the power cuts, and said extra mazut, a carbon intensive fuel oil the government has resorted to for power generation, would be imported.

Egypt’s petroleum and electricity ministries did not respond to a request for comment.