Bank of Japan data released Friday showed the corporate goods price index (CGPI), which measures prices companies charge each other for goods and services, rose 4.9% in April from a year earlier, sharply exceeding market forecasts for a 3.0% increase.
The annual increase was the fastest since May 2023 and accelerated significantly from March’s 2.9% rise.

The figures underscored the growing impact of higher import costs on Japan’s economy following disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran conflict. Japan remains heavily dependent on imported energy, particularly crude oil from the Middle East.

The yen-denominated import price index jumped 17.5% in April from a year earlier, marking the steepest increase since December 2022 and reflecting both elevated global energy prices and the weaker yen’s effect on import costs.

On a monthly basis, wholesale prices rose 2.3% in April after increasing 1.0% in March, the data showed.
Petroleum and coal product prices climbed 5.3% from a year earlier as crude oil and jet fuel costs rose, while chemical goods prices surged 9.2%, the strongest increase since September 2022. Naphtha prices soared 79.4%, according to the report.

The data came a day after a Bank of Japan policymaker called for raising interest rates “at the earliest stage possible” to contain inflationary pressures stemming from higher fuel costs and supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.

Economists said the breadth of price increases would be closely monitored by policymakers assessing whether inflation pressures are becoming more entrenched across the broader economy.

“If price rises are contained to oil-related goods, there is little need for the BOJ to respond,” said Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus.
“But if they broaden to a wide range of goods, the BOJ will likely have to raise rates,” he said.

The inflation surge adds to pressure on the central bank as it seeks to normalize monetary policy after years of ultra-low interest rates and stimulus measures aimed at reviving growth and inflation.

The initiative centres on the e-rupee, a central bank digital currency (CBDC) being tested across roughly 10 pilot projects nationwide, where welfare payments are transferred directly into digital wallets for targeted use in sectors such as agriculture and food distribution.

In one case in Maharashtra state, farmer Samadhan Sonawane used CBDC-linked subsidies to install a drip irrigation system on his onion farm, with funds transferred directly from the central bank and covering about 80% of equipment costs.

The remaining balance is paid through approved vendors under the programme’s rules.The system is part of a broader effort by the Reserve Bank of India to streamline India’s estimated $80 billion welfare payment system, which authorities say has historically faced inefficiencies and leakages.

Officials involved in the programme say programmable features in the CBDC allow authorities to restrict how funds are spent, ensuring subsidies are used only for approved goods and services. The pilot is being run in coordination with state governments and financial institutions, including Punjab National Bank.

The approach is also being tested in food subsidy programmes, including a rollout in Gujarat state where about 15,000 beneficiaries are currently enrolled, with plans to scale up to millions of eligible households.

Globally, central bank digital currencies remain in early stages, with dozens of countries running pilot projects, though only a few have launched fully operational systems. India’s programme is among the largest in terms of potential user base.

Since its launch in 2022, India’s e-rupee has seen limited uptake compared with the country’s dominant digital payments platform, the Unified Payments Interface, which processes hundreds of billions of dollars in transactions monthly.

Total e-rupee transactions have reached about $3.6 billion, underscoring both the scale of experimentation and the gap between pilots and mainstream adoption.Supporters of the programme argue that direct digital transfers can reduce fraud, improve transparency and eliminate delays in welfare delivery.

However, economists and digital currency experts caution that restricting spending through programmable money could limit user flexibility and affect adoption.

Critics say that tightly controlled digital currencies risk undermining the cash-like nature of money, raising concerns about privacy and economic freedom if scaled broadly.

A three-judge panel at the US Court of International Trade will consider lawsuits filed by 24 mostly Democratic-led states and two small businesses seeking to block the tariffs, which took effect on February 24.

The plaintiffs contend the policy sidesteps a decision by the US Supreme Court that struck down a broad set of earlier tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

The Trump administration has defended the tariffs as a lawful response to persistent trade imbalances, arguing that the United States’ long-standing deficit importing more goods than it exports justifies emergency measures.

The tariffs were enacted under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which permits duties of up to 15% for a limited period in cases of significant balance-of-payments deficits or to prevent a sharp depreciation of the U.S. dollar.

Plaintiffs argue that the provision is intended for short-term monetary crises and does not apply to routine trade deficits, which they say do not meet the statutory threshold.The legal dispute marks a further test of executive authority over trade policy, an area traditionally involving congressional oversight.

Trump has made tariffs a central element of his economic and foreign policy agenda in his second term, asserting broad unilateral powers to impose import duties.

The case follows a February 20 ruling by the Supreme Court that invalidated many of Trump’s earlier tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, finding that the statute did not grant the authority he had claimed.

The current lawsuits do not challenge other tariffs imposed under more conventional legal frameworks, including duties on steel, aluminum and copper imports.

Tokyo — Business sentiment among Japanese firms improved in the three months to March while corporate inflation expectations rose to record levels, a closely watched survey showed on Wednesday, strengthening the case for a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, even as escalating fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict darken the economic outlook.

The central bank’s quarterly “tankan” survey indicated that large manufacturers’ sentiment index rose to +17 in March, slightly above market forecasts of +16 and up from +16 in December, marking its highest level since December 2021.

The improvement extended a fourth consecutive quarter of gains, suggesting that parts of Japan’s industrial sector have continued to recover despite mounting global uncertainties.

Sentiment among large non-manufacturers remained robust, with the index holding steady at +36, surpassing a median market forecast of +33. The strength in the services sector was supported by rising profits from price increases and a continued recovery in inbound tourism, according to the survey data.

A Bank of Japan official said resilient demand for artificial intelligence-related semiconductors and easing uncertainty over U.S. trade policy helped offset pressures from higher input costs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

At the same time, the survey highlighted growing inflationary pressures within the corporate sector. Companies reported rising expectations for future price increases, reflecting the impact of higher fuel and raw material costs.

Analysts said this trend could provide additional justification for the central bank to move toward policy normalisation after years of ultra-loose monetary settings.Mari Iwashita, executive rates strategist at Nomura Securities, said the survey underscored mounting inflation risks driven by external shocks.

She noted that companies facing surging energy costs may increasingly pass those expenses on to consumers, reinforcing upward pressure on prices.The data comes at a critical juncture for the Bank of Japan, which is weighing whether to raise interest rates as early as this month.

Market participants have been closely monitoring the tankan survey as a key gauge of corporate sentiment and investment plans.Despite the relatively upbeat current conditions, the survey revealed growing caution among firms about the near-term outlook.

Both manufacturers and non-manufacturers expect business conditions to deteriorate over the next three months, reflecting concerns about the economic fallout from the Iran conflict and its impact on energy markets.

The ongoing conflict has driven up global fuel costs, increasing operational expenses for Japanese companies that rely heavily on imported energy. The resulting squeeze on margins is expected to weigh on profitability, particularly for industries with limited pricing power.

Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, said the strength of the survey could still encourage policymakers to act. He noted that firms appeared to be absorbing the energy shock for now, suggesting that underlying economic conditions remain stable enough to support a rate hike in the near term.

Capital expenditure plans among large firms also pointed to cautious optimism. Companies expect to increase investment by 3.3% in the fiscal year 2026, exceeding a median market forecast of a 3.0% rise.

The planned increase suggests that firms are continuing to invest in growth despite heightened uncertainty.The survey period, which ran from February 26 to March 31, captured responses from roughly 70% of firms by March 12, shortly after the escalation of hostilities involving the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran on February 28.

This timing indicates that early assessments of the conflict’s economic impact are already being reflected in corporate sentiment.Economists cautioned that the positive momentum seen in the survey may not be sustained if external conditions worsen.

Stefan Angrick said that while a weak yen and subdued wage growth have supported corporate margins, broader economic challenges remain.He noted that export growth could weaken amid slowing global demand, while domestic consumption may remain constrained by modest income gains.

Over time, these factors could weigh on corporate profits and sentiment, complicating the central bank’s policy decisions.The survey underscores the delicate balance facing policymakers as they navigate between emerging inflationary pressures and risks to economic growth.

While improving sentiment and rising prices strengthen the case for tightening monetary policy, the uncertain global environment, particularly developments in the Middle East, continues to pose significant challenges for Japan’s export-driven economy.

The agreed, subject to approval by the IMF’s executive board, would release about $1 billion under the Extended Fund Facility and an additional $210 million under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, bringing total disbursements under the current program to $4.5 billion.

Under the broader $7 billion program, the Washington-based lender has urged Islamabad to maintain a tight and data-dependent monetary policy stance to anchor inflation expectations and reinforce foreign exchange buffers.

The IMF’s guidance comes as global energy prices rise and regional geopolitical tensions add uncertainty to Pakistan’s inflation outlook, particularly given its reliance on imports.

Pakistan’s central bank has held its benchmark policy rate steady at 10.5% this month, pausing an easing cycle as authorities weigh the risks of renewed price pressures against the need to support economic stability.

The staff-level agreement marks a critical procedural step in unlocking further funding, which analysts say remains essential for sustaining macroeconomic stability and meeting external financing needs.

The U.S. Treasury Department said the redesigned notes, timed to coincide with the 250th anniversary of American independence, will replace the treasurer’s signature with that of Trump while retaining other statutory design elements.

The first $100 bills will bear the signatures of Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, with broader circulation expected in the weeks following production.Break with long-standing conventionThe move ends an unbroken lineage dating to 1861, when U.S. federal currency was first issued with the treasurer’s signature.

Current and previously printed notes bearing the signatures of former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and former Treasurer Lynn Malerba will remain in circulation.Treasury officials said the redesign complies with existing statutes governing Federal Reserve notes, which allow flexibility in design changes for anti-counterfeiting purposes while mandating specific elements such as inscriptions and limiting portrait subjects to deceased individuals

The signature change aligns with broader efforts by the Trump administration to associate the president’s name with national institutions and commemorative initiatives. A federal arts panel recently approved a design for a gold coin bearing Trump’s image, though existing law prohibits the depiction of living individuals on circulating U.S. coinage.

In a statement, Bessent described the initiative as appropriate for the semiquincentennial, citing what he called strong economic performance during Trump’s second term. Brandon Beach, the current U.S. treasurer whose signature has not appeared on currency, also expressed support.

Treasury officials said no other major visual changes are planned for the notes beyond the signature adjustment. Production of the new currency will begin in June, with distribution through the banking system expected to follow gradually.

Malerba declined to comment on the change. Jovita Carranza, who served as treasurer during Trump’s first term, said the move reflected continuity in economic policy and national identity.

Its surge came alongside a steady rise in gold prices, which touched a seven-week peak and continued to demonstrate resilience in a shifting global economic landscape.

The upward movement of both metals reflects renewed investor confidence amid easing currency pressures and monetary policy adjustments.

A softer dollar strengthened the appeal of gold and silver for international buyers, pushing prices upward throughout the week.

Gold prices moved steadily and maintained strong momentum, supported by favorable macroeconomic signals.

The metal benefited from broad safe-haven demand as global uncertainties encouraged investors to protect their portfolios with more stable assets.

Silver’s record-breaking performance stood out as it briefly exceeded earlier highs before stabilizing at elevated levels.

The metal has seen one of its strongest annual runs, aided by tighter inventories and growing industrial requirements, including its expanding role in clean-energy technologies.

Industrial demand has been a major contributing factor to silver’s impressive gains, with sectors such as renewable energy, electronics and advanced manufacturing increasingly dependent on the metal.

This long-term demand outlook has created a positive environment for sustained strength, even as prices reached new records.

Analysts noted that the rally in silver also boosted gold, reinforcing the trend across the broader precious-metals market.

Market watchers observed that investors were encouraged by the synchronized climb, viewing both metals as stable assets during uncertain financial periods.

The global currency environment also contributed to the upward trend, with the dollar maintaining a weaker posture that supported increased international buying.

This helped gold become more accessible and attractive to buyers outside the United States, further amplifying demand.

Central bank policy developments played an important role this week, as interest-rate decisions influenced investor expectations for the coming year.

The recent rate cut signaled a more accommodative monetary direction while maintaining a cautious outlook, creating favorable conditions for non-yielding assets like gold.

Investors are now awaiting upcoming labor-market data, which may provide additional clarity on the future path of monetary policy.

Such data will likely guide market sentiment, influencing how investors position themselves in the precious-metals market over the short term.

Global geopolitical developments also added to the overall sense of caution in financial markets, further improving the appeal of gold and silver.

Uncertainty surrounding international trade and energy issues encouraged investors to diversify into assets traditionally seen as reliable during periods of volatility.

Silver’s extraordinary rise this year reflects not only its investment appeal but also its structural importance in growing technologies.

Its addition to the list of critical minerals underscores its strategic significance for the future, supporting expectations of sustained demand growth.

While analysts acknowledged that the recent sharp rise calls for careful monitoring, they maintained that the long-term outlook remains broadly positive.

Demand from industrial sectors is expected to expand further, particularly as clean-energy projects continue advancing in major economies.

Platinum and palladium also posted solid weekly gains, reflecting the strength of the precious-metals sector overall.

These metals benefited from similar market forces, highlighting the broader momentum across the commodity landscape.

As global markets continue navigating changing economic currents, precious metals remain a central focus for investors seeking both stability and long-term opportunity.

The strong rally in silver and gold reinforces their enduring value and their importance in times of transition.

The rally was further amplified by an extraordinary surge in silver, which touched a fresh record high, marking one of the strongest sessions for metals this year.

Spot gold rose 1.2% to $4,280.08 per ounce, achieving its highest level since late October and extending a steady upward trend supported by softer U.S. monetary policy.

U.S. gold futures for February delivery also advanced by 2.1% to settle at $4,313 per ounce, signalling strong forward-looking sentiment among traders.

Silver delivered one of the standout performances of the day, jumping nearly 4% to $64.22 per ounce and hovering close to the record high of $64.31 reached earlier.

Its rapid surge added significant momentum across the metals market, lifting both platinum and palladium as investors poured into hard assets.

Analysts noted that silver’s powerful rally acted as a tailwind for the broader precious metals sector.

Market observers emphasised that the strong upward move reflected global interest in alternative stores of value at a time of shifting financial conditions.

The U.S. dollar weakened to an eight-week low after the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut, making dollar-priced metals more affordable for international buyers.

This decline helped fuel additional buying, with traders viewing the environment as favourable for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Experts pointed out that inflation remains above the central bank’s long-term target, creating conditions that traditionally support gold’s role as a safe-haven investment.

Lower interest rates in an inflationary environment tend to boost demand for precious metals, reinforcing the bullish outlook.

The rate cut marked the Fed’s third consecutive quarter-point reduction, with policymakers signaling a potential pause as they continue to monitor labour market indicators and inflation pressures.

Despite this cautious tone, the overall shift toward looser monetary conditions remains a key driver of strength in the metals market.

Political factors also added context, as U.S. President Donald Trump has consistently supported lower interest rates during his second term.

His expected nominee for the next Federal Reserve chair is anticipated to maintain a dovish stance, providing additional reassurance to markets.

Traders now await the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report, scheduled for release on December 16, which is expected to offer new signals on employment trends and help shape expectations for future rate decisions.

The results of the report may further reinforce or moderate the current rally in precious metals.

In India, pension funds received approval to invest in gold and silver exchange-traded funds, expanding access to metals exposure for long-term savers.

The move is expected to strengthen domestic demand for precious metals and broaden market participation.

Meanwhile, platinum prices rose 2.5% to $1,697.61, supported by stronger industrial demand and spillover effects from the precious metals rally.

Palladium climbed 1.1% to $1,492.55, maintaining its steady advance in line with improved global investment sentiment.

The day’s strong performance underscored the resilient appeal of gold and silver in times of economic adjustment and currency volatility.

With supportive monetary conditions and rising global interest, precious metals continue to shine as reliable assets in a shifting financial landscape.

The MSCI global equity index posted modest gains, reflecting confidence in a soft-landing scenario for major economies.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields slipped, suggesting that investors anticipate easier financial conditions in the months ahead.

In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose steadily, buoyed by strength in value stocks and renewed market breadth.
While technology shares saw mild selling, cyclical sectors such as finance and energy led the rally, signaling broader investor participation.

Market analysts said the easing of bond yields underscored rising optimism about inflation moderation and potential policy support.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes dropped to around 4.06%, marking a notable decline that reflects improving market sentiment.

European stocks joined the global rally, with both the STOXX 600 and FTSEurofirst 300 hitting record highs.
Banking and industrial shares led gains as investors positioned for stable growth and steady borrowing conditions.

The improved outlook also comes as U.S. lawmakers prepare to vote on a bipartisan agreement to reopen government agencies.
The resolution of the longest shutdown in U.S. history is expected to restore economic clarity and resume crucial data releases.

In currency markets, the dollar strengthened slightly against the yen, while the Japanese currency hovered near nine-month lows.
Officials in Tokyo reaffirmed their commitment to monitoring exchange rates, ensuring stability amid changing global dynamics.

Analysts noted that the gradual return of risk appetite is fueling optimism across global markets.
Many expect further recovery in equity performance as interest rate cuts and fiscal stability provide a supportive backdrop.

Federal Reserve officials have also signaled a potential shift toward accommodative measures to sustain economic growth.
Comments from New York Fed President John Williams hinted at the possibility of restarting bond purchases to manage short-term rates effectively.

The market also reacted to news of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s planned retirement in early 2026.
Analysts believe his replacement could lean toward dovish policies, aligning with the White House’s preference for lower borrowing costs.

Investors are also watching the technology sector closely as spending on artificial intelligence continues to drive corporate strategy.
Despite short-term volatility, sentiment remains positive for AI-related investments and innovation-driven growth.

Global equity strategists highlighted that the market’s resilience reflects confidence in central bank coordination and policy clarity.
With inflation easing and liquidity improving, the conditions appear favorable for continued equity inflows.

Market participants are also encouraged by renewed corporate earnings momentum, especially in financial and industrial sectors.
This shift toward value-oriented strategies underscores expectations of long-term economic expansion.

As the Fed’s next policy meeting approaches, analysts predict a measured approach that balances growth with inflation management.
Investors remain focused on data-driven decisions and the gradual normalization of global financial markets.

Overall, the decline in U.S. bond yields and the steady rise in global stocks signal renewed optimism in the global economy.
With improving fiscal coordination, easing inflation pressures, and strong corporate resilience, markets are positioned for sustained progress in 2026.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack emphasizes the Fed’s careful balancing of inflation control and economic stability, highlighting optimism about long-term economic growth and resilience.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack recently shared her views on the U.S. economy, expressing cautious optimism as the Federal Reserve continues its efforts to maintain price stability while supporting employment.

Speaking at an event hosted by the Economic Club of New York, Hammack acknowledged that while inflation remains a challenge, the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the situation and maintaining policies designed to support sustained economic growth.

Hammack noted that the current stance of monetary policy is close to a neutral point — a level that neither accelerates nor restricts economic activity.

She stated that while there are still some pressures on prices, the U.S. job market continues to demonstrate strength and adaptability, a sign that the broader economy remains resilient despite recent inflationary trends.

According to Hammack, the Federal Reserve’s policy approach aims to balance multiple objectives: keeping inflation in check, promoting employment, and ensuring stable financial conditions.

She highlighted that the Fed’s decisions are guided by data, collaboration, and long-term economic sustainability. This measured approach reflects the institution’s commitment to maintaining the health and confidence of the American economy.

Hammack emphasized that while inflation has been a key concern for policymakers, there are encouraging signs of progress as supply chain pressures ease and consumer confidence stabilizes.

She said the Fed is continuing to assess the balance between interest rate levels and their impact on both inflation and growth, underscoring the importance of patience and precision in policy adjustments.

She acknowledged that maintaining stability in such a complex environment requires vigilance but expressed faith in the Federal Reserve’s capacity to adapt effectively.

The focus remains on steering the economy toward a soft landing — reducing inflation gradually without stalling growth or causing unnecessary disruptions in the labor market.

In her address, Hammack also pointed out that the U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience despite global headwinds. Strong employment figures, steady consumer spending, and robust business investment all indicate that the fundamentals of the economy remain strong.

She expressed confidence that, with the right policy mix, inflation can be brought under control while preserving economic momentum.

Hammack’s comments come at a time when central banks globally are facing similar challenges of managing inflation amid evolving market dynamics.

Her perspective reflects the Federal Reserve’s balanced approach — maintaining flexibility while focusing on achieving the dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.

The Cleveland Fed president also highlighted the importance of communication and transparency in monetary policy, emphasizing that clear guidance helps businesses and investors plan effectively.

She added that collaboration among policymakers, economists, and financial institutions plays a crucial role in ensuring steady progress toward long-term economic goals.

Overall, Hammack’s outlook reflects a positive sentiment about the direction of the U.S. economy. While acknowledging short-term challenges, she reinforced the belief that the combination of strong fundamentals, strategic policymaking, and market adaptability will ensure continued growth.

Her message of cautious optimism underscores the Fed’s confidence in navigating current economic complexities while maintaining its focus on sustainable prosperity.

As the U.S. continues to adjust to post-pandemic dynamics, inflation control, and changing global conditions, Hammack’s comments serve as a reminder of the Federal Reserve’s enduring commitment to economic stability.

The balance between managing inflation and supporting employment remains delicate, but the Fed’s pragmatic and data-driven approach continues to inspire confidence in the resilience of the American economy.