The findings suggest that the trajectory of Tehran’s nuclear program has remained broadly unchanged since last summer, despite months of conflict involving the United States and Israel. The war, launched on February 28, has largely targeted conventional military infrastructure, though Israel has struck several nuclear-related facilities.

Analysts say the unchanged timeline reflects both the limited focus of recent U.S. operations on nuclear sites and the continued existence of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Significantly delaying the program would likely require neutralizing or removing this material, they said.Earlier intelligence assessments had concluded that Iran could produce sufficient bomb-grade uranium within three to six months.

Following U.S. strikes last year on key facilities including Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan, that estimate was extended to roughly nine to twelve months.The International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, has said Iran’s existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium could be sufficient for multiple weapons if further processed.

However, inspectors have been unable to verify the location of part of this material after oversight activities were disrupted.A fragile truce agreed on April 7 has paused large-scale hostilities, though tensions remain elevated. The conflict has also disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil flows, contributing to wider energy market instability.

U.S. officials have consistently said preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon remains a central objective. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has stated that Washington aims to achieve this through a combination of military pressure and negotiations.Experts say assessing the full impact of military operations on Iran’s nuclear capacity remains difficult.

While physical infrastructure has been damaged, knowledge and technical expertise may persist, and some nuclear material is believed to be stored in hardened underground sites beyond the reach of conventional strikes.Iran has long denied seeking nuclear weapons, maintaining that its program is for civilian purposes.

U.S. intelligence agencies and the IAEA assess that Tehran halted an organized weapons development effort in 2003, though concerns remain over its enrichment capabilities and potential breakout capacity.

Lebanese state media reported fresh Israeli strikes, while the Israeli military issued an evacuation warning for a building near the southern city of Tyre, signaling ongoing operations despite the broader regional truce.

Hezbollah, which entered the conflict by launching attacks on Israel on March 2, has not claimed any operations since early Wednesday. Three Lebanese sources close to the group told Reuters it had halted fire on northern Israel and Israeli forces in Lebanon as part of the ceasefire arrangement involving Iran.

The Israeli military said it “continues fighting and ground operations” against Hezbollah, underscoring that hostilities along the Lebanon front remain active.Lebanon’s army warned residents against returning to southern areas, citing ongoing Israeli attacks and the presence of advancing Israeli forces.

It urged civilians to avoid exposed zones until conditions stabilize.An AFP correspondent in the Tyre region reported limited civilian movement southward, despite the displacement of hundreds of thousands since the conflict expanded into Lebanon.

Hezbollah is expected to issue a formal statement clarifying its position on the ceasefire and Netanyahu’s assertion that Lebanon is excluded from the agreement, the Lebanese sources said.

French President Emmanuel Macron, while welcoming the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, said the situation in Lebanon remained critical and called for its inclusion in any broader de-escalation framework.

In a joint statement issued during a ministerial meeting hosted by France, the group said it had emphasized the need to minimize harm to civilian populations, regional partners and essential infrastructure amid intensifying hostilities.

The statement reflected mounting concern among major economies over the humanitarian and systemic risks posed by the conflict.

The ministers underscored that safeguarding non-combatants and public infrastructure remains a priority under international norms, as recent strikes have reportedly affected energy facilities and other civilian-linked assets in the region. They stressed coordination among allies and partners to contain spillover effects.

The G7 highlighted potential disruptions to global supply chains, including energy, fertilizer and broader commercial flows, noting that such shocks could have direct consequences for domestic economies and consumers.

The ministers said efforts were underway to mitigate these risks through coordinated policy responses and international norms.

The statement also reiterated the importance of restoring safe and toll-free maritime navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments.

Any prolonged disruption in the corridor could exacerbate volatility in energy markets and strain international trade routes.

The G7 comprises the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan, along with the European Union.