The move expands an emergency arrangement under which Iraq has already been exporting fuel oil through Syria’s port of Baniyas following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime corridor through which the vast majority of Iraqi crude exports traditionally pass.

Iraqi officials said the strategy will remain in place even after maritime traffic through Hormuz normalizes, reflecting a broader government effort to diversify export routes and reduce dependence on a single corridor.

“The Iraqi government and the oil ministry attach the highest importance to diversifying crude export routes, particularly through Syrian territory,” Iraqi Oil Ministry spokesman Saleem Al-Rikabi told Reuters.

Al-Rikabi said state oil marketer SOMO was continuing discussions with Syrian authorities aimed at expanding energy exports through Iraq’s western neighbor.

Iraq typically exports around 3.6 million barrels of crude oil per day, with approximately 3.4 million barrels previously shipped through southern terminals near Basra before the conflict disrupted Gulf trade routes.

The closure of Hormuz forced Baghdad to seek alternative export channels as storage facilities filled and outbound shipments became constrained.

An interim solution introduced in April involved transporting Iraqi fuel oil by tanker truck across Syria to Baniyas for re-export through the Mediterranean.

Syrian officials said preparations are underway to expand the arrangement. Mohammed Al-Ahdab, head of the media office at the Syrian Petroleum Company, said operations at Baniyas were continuing despite expectations that the strait could reopen.

A Syrian Energy Ministry official said two additional unloading areas and supporting facilities would become operational within a week to accommodate Iraqi crude oil and naphtha shipments.

According to Iraqi oil officials, crude exports through Syria could initially reach around 50,000 barrels per day once loading infrastructure is completed. Tanker-truck shipments are expected to begin in early July, while SOMO plans to establish offices in Baniyas to support operations.

The expansion represents a significant opportunity for Syria, which is seeking to rebuild its economy and reconnect with regional markets after years of conflict and international isolation.

Officials said Syria is earning transit-related income from the movement of Iraqi fuel products, although details of the financial arrangements have not been disclosed.

Shipping data cited by industry sources indicate that Iraqi fuel oil exported through Syria has already reached destinations in Africa and Europe, including a tanker that arrived in Alexandria, Egypt, earlier this month.

The overland route faces logistical and security challenges. Roads linking Iraq and Syria have suffered extensive war-related damage, while fuel transport operations have encountered accidents and occasional disruptions from local protests.

At Baniyas, Iraqi fuel oil is being unloaded into storage facilities connected to marine export infrastructure rather than processed domestically, according to a source familiar with the operations.

Syrian authorities are also exploring longer-term solutions, including the rehabilitation of damaged pipeline infrastructure. Officials said the Iraq-Syria pipeline network has the capacity to transport up to 300,000 barrels per day if restored to operational status.

The initiative underscores how the disruption of Hormuz has accelerated efforts by regional producers to develop alternative export routes and strengthen resilience against future geopolitical shocks affecting global energy markets.

Leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Russia concluded their first in-person summit in eight years on Thursday with a commitment to strengthen energy ties, expand trade and investment, and pursue long-term commercial partnerships aimed at diversifying supply sources and reducing exposure to market shocks.

The agreement comes as many Southeast Asian economies grapple with the impact of supply disruptions stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy transit route. The region remains heavily dependent on Middle Eastern crude, with around 60% of Southeast Asia’s crude oil imports originating from the Gulf.

In a joint statement issued after the summit, ASEAN and Russia voiced concern over rising global energy insecurity driven by geopolitical tensions, supply-chain disruptions and market volatility. The two sides also agreed to enhance crisis preparedness, cooperate on energy-transition initiatives and expand engagement in civilian nuclear energy.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who hosted ASEAN leaders in Kazan, said Moscow was prepared to increase exports of value-added products to Southeast Asian markets, including fertilizers, pharmaceuticals and energy resources.

“Of course, we remain committed to supplying our Asian friends with food products and energy resources, which have been enjoying so much demand,” Putin said at a joint press conference with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

The energy partnership has gained urgency as regional economies face higher fuel costs and supply constraints. The Philippines, for example, imports more than 90% of its crude oil requirements from Gulf producers, leaving it particularly exposed to disruptions in Middle Eastern supply routes.

Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono said ASEAN viewed Russia as an important partner in strengthening regional energy resilience and broadening access to alternative sources of supply.

“We seek cooperation that diversifies our sources, strengthens our supply chains, and shields our region from external shocks,” Sugiono told the summit’s plenary session.

Analysts said Russia’s role as a major energy exporter could become increasingly attractive for Southeast Asian governments seeking to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical instability in traditional supply regions.

Chester Calabaza, founding president of the Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation think tank, said the recent disruption to Middle Eastern energy flows had increased interest in Russian supplies among ASEAN economies pursuing broader energy-security strategies.

Russia’s outreach to ASEAN comes as Moscow seeks to deepen economic engagement with Asia and expand markets for its energy exports, while Southeast Asian governments look to diversify procurement channels amid heightened uncertainty in global energy markets.

Birol told Swiss newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung that recovery timelines would vary across countries, with some producers facing longer setbacks than others. He said overall output in the region was expected to return to pre-war levels in roughly two years, citing uneven infrastructure damage and differing production capacities.

He cautioned that markets may be underestimating the consequences of continued instability in the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil and gas shipments. While cargoes dispatched before the outbreak of hostilities have largely reached their destinations, he said the absence of new shipments in March was beginning to create supply gaps, particularly for Asian markets.

“No new tankers were loaded in March,” Birol said, adding that if the strait remains closed, the shortfall could translate into sustained upward pressure on global energy prices.The disruption comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the region, which have curtailed production and complicated export logistics.

Energy analysts have pointed to the Strait of Hormuz as a critical vulnerability, handling a significant share of global seaborne crude and liquefied natural gas flows.Birol said the IEA remained prepared to intervene through coordinated releases of emergency oil reserves, following a similar move earlier in March aimed at stabilizing markets.

He added that while such action was not yet imminent, it remained under active consideration should supply conditions deteriorate further.

Producers’ alliance prepares for a carefully balanced production increase amid signs of market recovery and renewed optimism in global energy stability.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, are poised to approve a moderate increase in oil production targets, according to sources close to the discussions.

The move, expected to be finalized at Sunday’s ministerial meeting, highlights the group’s steady and balanced approach to maintaining energy market stability amid shifting global economic conditions.

The producers’ alliance is expected to agree to raise output by approximately 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for December. This measured adjustment reflects OPEC+’s ongoing commitment to ensuring stable supply without triggering oversupply concerns.

The decision comes as oil markets show signs of recovery following months of volatility influenced by shifting demand, sanctions, and broader economic factors.

Industry observers view this anticipated increase as a positive signal for both producers and consumers. It underscores OPEC+’s confidence in the gradual strengthening of global energy demand while maintaining its cautious strategy to balance production growth with price stability.

Analysts from RBC, Rystad, Commerzbank, and SEB forecast that this incremental rise aligns with the group’s broader goal of fostering a sustainable and predictable energy market.

Since April, OPEC+ has gradually raised output by more than 2.7 million barrels per day—around 2.5% of global supply. However, the group slowed the pace of its increases in recent months, responding prudently to concerns about potential oversupply.

This careful moderation is widely seen as a reflection of OPEC+’s disciplined management approach, prioritizing long-term market equilibrium over short-term gains.

A key factor influencing the current discussions is the introduction of new Western sanctions on Russia, one of the group’s leading members.

Despite these challenges, Moscow continues to play a vital role in the alliance’s coordination efforts. Analysts say that OPEC+’s cooperative framework allows for flexibility in addressing such issues while maintaining the group’s collective strength and unity.

Oil prices, which dipped to a five-month low of around $60 per barrel in late October, have since rebounded to approximately $65. The recovery is attributed to renewed optimism surrounding international trade discussions and the impact of sanctions on global supply chains.

The price rebound reinforces the perception that OPEC+’s cautious strategy has helped prevent sharper declines and sustained investor confidence.

Eight key member nations—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan, and Algeria—are expected to endorse the proposed production increase.

Sources indicate that a pause in the hike remains a secondary option, should the market require additional stability measures. The meeting, scheduled for 1600 GMT, will finalize the group’s December output plan.

Historically, OPEC+ has shown remarkable adaptability in responding to global energy shifts. After implementing significant production cuts totaling 5.85 million bpd during periods of reduced demand, the group began gradually unwinding those cuts earlier this year.

The current adjustment continues that trend, symbolizing OPEC+’s confidence in the resilience of the energy market and the gradual restoration of balance between supply and demand.

Energy analysts note that the alliance’s actions are shaping a more predictable future for oil markets, especially as economies recover from global disruptions.

OPEC+’s emphasis on moderation and collaboration ensures that both energy producers and consumers benefit from a more stable environment, encouraging investment and growth across the sector.

As OPEC+ members convene to finalize their decision, the consensus remains that the group’s steady hand and forward-looking policies are crucial for global energy confidence.

The modest increase, supported by a diverse coalition of member nations, reflects the organization’s ongoing commitment to maintaining stability, supporting recovery, and building a sustainable foundation for future growth.