The HSBC flash India Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, compiled by S&P Global, fell to 56.5 from February’s 58.9, missing expectations in a Reuters poll and marking the sharpest slowdown in 18 months. While readings above 50 indicate expansion, the drop signalled a loss of momentum at the end of the fiscal year.

Manufacturing slowdown deepensThe manufacturing sector bore the brunt of the slowdown, with its PMI declining to a 4-1/2-year low of 53.8 from 56.9. Factory output growth weakened to its softest pace since August 2021, reflecting heightened uncertainty and subdued consumer demand.

The services sector, which makes up the bulk of India’s economy, also eased, with its PMI slipping to 57.2 from 58.1.Cost pressures intensifyInput costs rose at their fastest pace since June 2022, driven by higher prices for oil, energy, food, metals and chemicals.

Firms responded by increasing selling prices at the quickest rate in seven months, though some absorbed costs by compressing margins.India’s heavy reliance on imported energy has amplified the impact.

As the world’s third-largest oil importer, it sources about 90% of its crude and nearly half of its natural gas from overseas, making it vulnerable to price shocks linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have risen more than 40% since the conflict began.

External demand offers supportDespite weakening domestic demand, international orders rose to their highest level since the sub-index was introduced in 2014, with businesses reporting increased demand from Asia, Europe, the Americas and the Middle East.

Business confidence improved to its strongest level since September 2023, supporting the fastest pace of job creation since August, even as inflation risks mount and growth prospects face renewed pressure.

”Population shifts won’t rock U.S. inflation,” says Fed Governor Stephen Miran.

As the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to refine its policy tools, recent analyses around immigration’s impact on housing and inflation underscore a measured, data-driven approach that reassures both markets and consumers. Fed Governor Stephen Miran’s recent assessment sparked discussions about potential effects of immigration trends on rent and overall inflation, but experts emphasize that the broader U.S. economy remains resilient.

Miran’s evaluation, which referenced historical housing data from the 1980 Mariel boatlift in Miami, aims to understand how changes in population dynamics could influence rental markets and consumer prices. While his initial estimates suggested a moderate effect on rent inflation, leading economists point out that the actual impact is smaller than early figures implied, highlighting the robustness of U.S. housing and rental markets.

Albert Saiz, a distinguished MIT economist whose research informed parts of Miran’s analysis, notes that population growth and migration patterns do influence housing prices, but the magnitude is manageable. Even with shifts in local demand, overall consumer inflation is projected to remain stable, giving policymakers confidence in a steady economic environment. This measured perspective allows the Fed to carefully calibrate its interest rates while maintaining its dual focus on price stability and employment growth.

By considering the full scope of population trends and rental market data, Miran and the Federal Reserve are demonstrating a forward-looking approach. Their work reflects an effort to anticipate market movements without overreacting to short-term changes, ensuring Americans experience balanced and predictable inflation trends. Saiz’s latest research shows that a modest adjustment in rent inflation would have a limited effect on the national consumer price index, reinforcing that the economy is fundamentally resilient.

Miran’s updated analysis retains a cautious estimate for rent-related inflation adjustments but emphasizes that the effect on total inflation will be minimal, around 0.1 percentage points per year. This measured approach allows the Fed to respond thoughtfully, maintaining a stable monetary environment while still addressing emerging trends. Analysts see this as a positive step in ensuring that policy decisions are informed, data-driven, and protective of consumer interests.

The discussion also highlights the broader benefits of rigorous research in shaping economic policy. By incorporating historical data and contemporary studies, the Fed continues to provide guidance that supports sustainable growth. This balance reassures businesses, investors, and everyday Americans that inflation and housing markets are being monitored and managed carefully, reducing uncertainty and enhancing economic confidence.

As the Federal Reserve evaluates its policies in light of these findings, markets can remain optimistic. The emphasis on careful measurement, combined with the recognition that population shifts have a manageable effect on inflation, underscores the Fed’s commitment to a stable, forward-looking economy. Policymakers are thus positioned to make informed, proactive decisions that support both economic stability and long-term growth.

In conclusion, the ongoing analysis of immigration and housing impacts illustrates the Fed’s dedication to maintaining a resilient economy while applying thoughtful, research-based policy decisions. Americans can take comfort in knowing that the central bank is continuously evaluating trends and employing measured strategies to ensure stability, affordability, and continued economic growth across the nation.