Dalia Ziada

Libya is on the brink of a new civil war that will undermine the entire political solution process. 

The election of the Libyan interim Government of National Unity (GNU), in January, under the supervision of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), and the approval of all disputing political factions in the country, brought hope that the political solution for Libya might really work. 

This was the first time, the Libyans came to an agreement, after six years of a brutal civil war (2014-2020) that claimed the lives of thousands, including innocent civilians, and created a tribal chaos that empowered terrorism and foreign interventions. Fast forward to our present day, the euphoria has diminished and Libya is on the brink of a new civil war that will undermine the entire political solution process. 

The GNU is an interim government, that came to power with two difficult missions on its to-do list. The first mission is to unite Libya; eastern and western. The second mission is to hold general elections, on the 24th of December, that would set the foundation for a stable system of governance. The GNU, aided by UNSMIL and the international community, are exerting tremendous efforts to achieve the second mission of holding the elections on time, but very little is exerted on the first and most important mission to unite the Libyans. 

GNU leaders are spending the majority of their time traveling and signing agreements with regional and European key players. That is important, despite the fact that GNU is an interim government and thus all the international agreements and protocols of cooperation that it signs are also temporary. Meanwhile, GNU is exerting a very little effort, on the domestic level, to establish a working mechanism of coexistence amongst disputed Libyan political groups. That is much more important than their international tours.  

Last week, on the 20th of June, the Libyan National Army (LNA), commanded by General Khalifa Haftar, in Benghazi, blocked the border crossing between Libya and Algeria and declared it a military zone. GNU responded immediately by an official statement prohibiting the movement of military troops, whatever their affiliation is, without direct instructions from the central military command in Tripoli. The Tripoli-based army is commanded by GNU and receives training and ammunition from Turkey; while the Benghazi-based LNA receives support from Russia and France. 

LNA’s unilateral move happened on the same hour the GNU Prime Minister announced the re-opening of the coastal road, as a sign on Libya’s unity. LNA has always opposed the opening of the coastal road because it means submitting to the GNU military and kicking the Russian mercenaries, who support LNA, out of the country. Unfortunately, the next day the GNU had to close the coastal road, once again to avoid clashing with LNA. 

Two days later, on June 23rd, at the conclusion of the Berlin II Summit on Libya, GNU’s Foreign Minister mentioned that the foreign troops and mercenaries, either affiliated to Russia or Turkey, will start to gradually depart from Libya, in the following days. Yet, one week has passed since then, and no one left. On the contrary, the security situation is getting worse. Earlier this week, on June 26th, clashes erupted between two tribes in Benghazi, leaving at least five people killed. The militia elements and the weapons used in these clashes brought to mind the notorious battle of Benghazi, that erupted in 2014, and continued during the first three years of the second Libyan civil war. 

In that sense, the GNU needs to re-evaluate its achievements in contrast to its assigned priority missions. Unifying western and eastern Libya must be accomplished before continuing with the preparation for the general elections, in December. In particular, the lack of unity among the Libyan military troops in eastern and western Libya poses a huge threat to the entire political process. The continuity of the military division justifies the continued presence of foreign military troops and mercenaries, and complicates the process of disassembling local militia. Ironically, the international community keeps calling for removing foreign troops and mercenaries from Libya, rather than focusing on ending the division of the Libyan military forces, which is the only reason why foreign troops can continue to exist on the Libyan soil.

That is not pessimism; that is logic. Elections need a secure environment to produce enduring results that can truly save Libya. The only way to create this secure environment is by unifying the eastern and western militaries, before it is too late. 

Article first published on The Levant News.

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not reflect Milli Chronicle’s point-of-view.

Rival authorities have backed a ceasefire in Libya, raising the prospect of a de-escalation in the country’s long-running conflict. Achieving a lasting deal will require political and economic agreements that have proved elusive for years, and cooperation from foreign powers.

Who’s been fighting who?

Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) has been battling forces aligned with the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA). Both sides are formed from local armed factions, whose shifting loyalties have helped steer the course of the conflict.

Both have depended heavily on foreign allies pursuing strategic and political goals in Libya. Turkey stepped up its military support for the GNA in January after signing a maritime deal with Tripoli.

Haftar has long enjoyed backing from countries including the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Russia and Jordan.

How did we get there?

Libya’s fault lines surfaced nine years ago as local groups took different positions in the NATO-backed uprising that toppled Muammar Gaddafi.

An attempted democratic transition slid out of control as armed groups built local power bases and coalesced round rival political factions.

After a battle for Tripoli in 2014, one faction moved east and set up a parallel government and institutions. It recognised Haftar as chief as he began a long campaign against the Islamist groups and other opponents in Benghazi.

The GNA emerged from a December 2015, U.N.-backed agreement struck as Islamic State gained a foothold in Libya and migrant smuggling to Europe surged.

Haftar consolidated control of the east and swept south in early 2019 before launching his offensive on Tripoli.

Who controls what?

Front lines are drawn at LNA-held Sirte, roughly the midpoint of Libya’s Mediterranean coastline and a gateway to major oil ports.

The GNA and affiliated groups seized Libya’s densely populated northwest and the LNA governs the east. Allegiances in the south are more tenuous.

What’s the Damage?

Nearly 400,000 Libyans have been displaced over the past nine years. Thousands more have died.

The conflict has cost tens of billions of dollars in lost oil revenue, damaged infrastructure, and sharply reduced living standards.

Coronavirus infections have started to surge.

The collapse of public services has fueled protests in western Libya against the political elite.

What chance of Peace?

Fighting stopped in June but both sides have continued to mobilise. The ceasefire call by GNA head Fayez al-Sarraj proposed demilitarising Sirte, allowing an oil restart by freezing revenues until a political deal is reached, and elections in March.

But it is unclear how much backing those ideas have in the west, let alone the east.

The LNA dismissed the Sarraj’s announcement as a ploy. A parallel ceasefire call by Aguila Saleh, head of an eastern parliament aligned with Haftar, proposed Sirte as the seat of a new government.

The United Nations is pushing the two sides to resolve issues including oil revenue distribution, the make-up of a unity government and the status of armed groups.

Foreign powers officially back the process, but have also shipped arms to their allies, undercutting diplomatic efforts.

What happened to the Oil?

OPEC member Libya holds Africa’s largest oil reserves, producing 1.6 million barrels per day before 2011. Blockades have caused output to fluctuate sharply since then.

Production climbed to around one million bpd from late 2016, then plunged to less than 100,000 bpd as the LNA’s allies closed ports and pipelines in January.

The National Oil Corporation says it will restart exports only if military forces leave oil facilities.

According to the military source reported by Reuters, the strikes were carried out by “unknown aircraft”. However, a resident from the nearby town of Zintan said that the explosions were clearly heard from the direction of the base, and other sources confirm that the strikes were carried out by Khalifa Haftar’s forces of LNA.

UK-based Arabic channel Sky News Arabia also reported that LNA destroyed Turkish deployed air defense systems.

In May, the Watiya airbase was occupied by GNA with its Turkish backers that resulted in the sudden collapse of the 14-months struggle of LNA to seize the capital.

Turkey was playing a vital role with its support for GNA by providing advanced air defence system and drone strikes to cut-off Haftar’s supply lines.

Turkey’s Defence Minister Hulusi Akar was in Tripoli on Friday and Saturday for meetings with the GNA to prepare all necessary steps to establish two bases in Libya, and one of them was Watiya airbase.

According to the sources, MIM-23 Hawk Air Defense System in the Watiya airbase was destroyed, that sent a strong signal to Turkish-involvement.

LNA is backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and France, while GNA is backed by Qatar, Turkey and Italy.

Turkish involvement in Libya has angered local Libyan population of Benghazi city, who burnt the Turkish flags and the pictures of Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan for interfering and sending militias to slaughter the Libyans. It has also angered France and Greece. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has warned of new sanctions on Ankara if it does not halt its intervention.

Analysts suggest that, Turkish president Erdogan manipulated GNA chief Fayaz al-Sarraj into making him sign an agreement to hand over the Watiya airbase to the Turks officially. Moreover, the agreement will give diplomatic immunity to the Turkish army in Libya.

Meanwhile, Egypt has openly warned that if Turkish-backed forces were to attempt to occupy Sirte, there would be a direct military intervention.