Taha tweeted, “Knock, knock! Who’s there? The Biden administration! They’ve got a surprise for you: $3 billion dollars transferred to Iran. But hold your chuckles, folks, because it’s not a joke… apparently. They claim it’s for humanitarian cases. Now, the real punchline?”

“They want the Middle East to trust them, while discouraging us from building relationships with Russia and China. Let’s hope the geopolitical comedy show doesn’t leave us all in stitches”, Taha continued.

There is no doubt that the U.S. has a complicated history with Iran. The two countries have been at odds since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, which led to the overthrow of the U.S.-backed Shah of Iran and the establishment of an Islamic Republic. Since then, the U.S. has pursued a policy of economic sanctions and isolation towards Iran, accusing the country of supporting terrorism and pursuing nuclear weapons.

However, the situation in Iran has changed in recent years. The country has been hit hard by economic sanctions, as well as the uprising caused by the custodial death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, which have caused widespread suffering among the Iranian people.

U.S. discourages its allies specially the Saudi Arabia and UAE, from engaging with Iran, Russia, and China. However, with the China-brokered Saudi-Iran deal in March, Saudi Arabia has exuded its autonomous right to execute its choices without American involvement.

With these statements, Khamenei cannot hide his desperation and crisis.

The Vienna talks resumed on Tuesday, February 7, after a few days of pause. Many observers, relying on the comments of the officials of the countries involved, consider these talks to be the final task of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

In this situation and on the same day, Khamenei came to the scene and while many thought that at least this time he would clarify the roadmap for his negotiating team, Khamenei in his speech addressed a group of Air Force personnel said: “Today, the United States is being hit from a place that it never expected.”

This sentence implies that Khamenei will turn the tables of negotiations. But he continued: “Today, the two presidents of the United States, the former and the current, have joined hands to tarnish the image of the United States and they are being successful in doing so … They are weakening themselves day by day and this will continue”. While, it turned out that the first sentence was only for domestic consumption and to relieve the Basij (the paramilitary force) and the Revolutionary Guards. It also revealed that it was not the Iranian regime that hit and would hit the United States again, but the previous and current presidents of the United States!

Also, another more important fact that has become increasingly clear is Khamenei’s extreme weakness. While many observers see the JCPOA negotiations at its 90^th minute of the game and emphasize that the nuclear talks have reached the final stage and that they will either succeed or fail, Khamenei is still unable to speak clearly and give up his usual duplicity because it is high time for him to make a “big decision” at a point when time is running out. A decision on whether to back down and accept the other side’s conditions, or not to cut short but intensify nuclear activities. In either case, it will cost him dearly, as much as the existence of his system.

This frailty and desperation, in the first place, is due to the devastating crisis within the Iranian government, which intensifies as JCPOC approaches its final line, and contradictory words and voices are heard from the highest levels of government leaders; “A good deal is definitely within reach and the regime is determined to reach a secure outcome,” a spokesman for Raisi’s administration told a news conference. On the other hand, the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs says, “The lifting of sanctions is very key and the red line of the Islamic Republic.” Shamkhani, secretary of the regime’s Supreme Security Council says, “Without Washington getting out of its current illusions, the Vienna talks will not be smooth.”

But the deeper roots of Khamenei’s hypocrisy and extreme helplessness must be sought in the socio-economic crises that have gripped his regime on all sides. The same crises that force him one day to shed crocodile tears for the livelihood of the people and express dissatisfaction with macroeconomic indicators, but a few days later to stupidly praise “thousands of achievements and epics achieved during four decades of mullah rule in Iran, which are denied by our enemies and ill-wishers.”

In the same speech, to justify the crimes committed in his government, he accused the dissident media that “by embellishing the ugly and corrupt face of the former dictatorial regime and covering up their betrayals, they even seek to embellish the criminal image of SAVAK (Shah’s security force).”

The fact is, during Khomeini’s rule, the Revolutionary Guards, the Ministry of Intelligence, and the Basij forces were the main factor in whitewashing the dictatorship of the Shah and SAVAK by suppressing and killing people.

With these statements, Khamenei cannot hide his desperation and crisis. Not only has he reached a milestone in the nuclear issue and the JCPOA is fast approaching its final stage, but his rule has come to an end in all areas, and the Iranian people have made this clear in their continual protests. The situation is expected to lead to a general uprising in the near future. This time, however, Khamenei will simply not be able to suppress it.

Cyrus Yaqubi is a Research Analyst and Iranian Foreign Affairs Commentator investigating the social issues and economy of the Middle East countries in general and Iran in particular.

United States can either force Khamenei to give up not only its nuclear activities but also its missile programs and meddling in the region.

While few politicians or governments are unaware that acquiring an atomic bomb is one of Khamenei’s strategic goals to ensure the survival of his government, there is still insufficient will to prevent him from achieving that goal.

The 2015 accord (JCPOA) between Iran and the P5 + 1 (US, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany) limited Iran’s nuclear activities for a short period (15 years). However, even after this agreement, Iran continued its nuclear activities, such as working on the production of more advanced centrifuges, either covertly and out of sight of IAEA inspectors or under the guise of research to produce isotopes and treat cancer patients.

After Donald Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018 and re-imposed US sanctions, Iran, had already equipped itself with more advanced IR-6 centrifuges with five times the capacity of the first-generation IR-1 centrifuges and began to increase its enriched uranium reserves further than agreed in JCPOA.

Currently, Iran has begun using IR-8 centrifuges, which are 16 times more efficient than IR-1 and can shorten the enrichment time significantly. Also, by resuming enrichment at a concentration of 20% and increasing it to 60%, it has become as close as possible to producing the enrichment needed to make an atomic bomb.

According to the New York Times and the Institute for Science and International Security, it now takes just about a month for Iran to reach the enrichment level needed to make an atomic bomb.

In 2015, the Iranian regime was in a state of complete bankruptcy. Unfortunately, however, the policy of appeasement of the West and the fear that the collapse of the mullahs in Iran may lead to regional instability, the demands of the regime were largely accepted. The mullahs were allowed to limit their nuclear activities for only a short period of 15 years, instead, all sanctions imposed on the regime was lifted. Iran was allowed to sell its oil, investors were encouraged to return and invest in Iran, and billions of their frozen assets were released and flown to Tehran in cash.

Now it seems that history is repeating itself!!

Because Khamenei, who had until recently strongly opposed negotiations with the United States and had put difficult conditions on the table to return to negotiations, suddenly agreed with the visit of the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA), Mr. Rafael Grossi, to Iran and gave the green light to return to the Vienna talks.

Has he given up his desire to acquire a nuclear bomb and come to the conclusion that without nuclear weapons and only with the lifting of sanctions, he could save his regime from this situation? Or maybe he was worried that the IAEA’s Board of  Governors would issue a resolution against Iran and send Iran’s nuclear file back to the Security Council, which would add the UN sanctions to the existing US sanctions and return Iran to the pre-2015 economic situation that brought his regime to the brink of suffocation!? Khamenei is therefore pursuing a well-known policy of buying time through resultless negotiations with the West and the IAEA.

Although Khamenei sees his survival in acquiring an atomic bomb by following North Korea’s example, he knows that Iran is now in the worst economic situation, with 80% of Iranians living below the poverty line, with the inflation rate generally rising over 50% and for some essential food items over 70%. Many factories and production centers have been forced to close and unemployment is such that one-third of Iran’s youths are unemployed. Nearly a third of the population of metropolises such as Tehran and Mashhad can no longer afford the high housing costs and as a result have been driven to the outskirts of cities and live in shantytowns that lack the necessary facilities such as running water and electricity.

Iran’s budget deficit is now more than 464,000 billion tomans (Iran Currency), and without the lifting of sanctions, there is no prospect of getting out of this situation. The government is forced to print banknotes without support, which will further increase inflation. The vast majority of Iranians, fed up with the corruption and incompetence of the Mullahs’ dictatorship, want regime change and a democratic government with the separation of religion and state. They express this demand despite the security forces’ brutal repression in the protest rallies and the strikes of workers and employees that we see almost every week, with slogans such as death to Khamenei and death to the dictator They also made this clear publicly with the widespread boycott of the presidential election last June. According to reliable sources, despite all the propaganda and arrangements to get people to the polls, only about 10% of eligible people went to the polls.

Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic is also taking its huge toll in Iran. Currently, Iran has the highest number of victims of this disease globally as per its capita. So far more than 428,000 people have died due to this disease. The people blame Khamenei for deliberately preventing the importation of the valid Pfizer, Moderna and Astrazeneca vaccines into Iran, and consider him the main culprit and perpetrator of this massacre and want him to be tried.

The situation is so bad that according to some officials of the regime, the Iranian society is like a time bomb that is getting closer to the time of the explosion, or according to the former president, Ahmadinejad, a flood is coming that will soon take everyone away.

In such circumstances, Mr. Grossi traveled to Tehran and at the end of the trip described the outcome of the talks with Iranian officials as “constructive”. He confirmed in a press conference that he was pleased to meet the new head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, and confirmed that “in less than two weeks, the IAEA General Conference will be held in Vienna, which is one of the most important nuclear events in the world”.

The United States also implicitly expressed interest that Iran’s return to the Vienna talks would allow the lifting of sanctions related to JCPOA.

It is quite clear that the P5 + 1 countries will also express their satisfaction with these words and give signals to the Iranian regime of the benefits that they can get from its return to the Vienna negotiations and drafting a new agreement.

In reality, reaching a new agreement with Iran and lifting sanctions can be very beneficial for the western countries and it can open the 85 million Iranian market for investment and the export of its products.

Also, with the entry of Iranian oil and gas into the world market, the price of these products will go down, which will benefit industrialized countries.

At the same time, they think that they can prevent the Iranian regime from acquiring an atomic bomb, at least for some time. But this is the same miscalculation that could give Khamenei new strength and save him from the brink of overthrow.

While if the Western countries, especially the United States, stand by the Iranian people and put strict conditions on the table, they can either force Khamenei to give up not only its nuclear activities but also its missile programs and meddling in the region. Otherwise, the growing worsening of Iran’s economic and social situation will cause widespread social uprisings that will be destined to bring the regime down.

Khamenei knows that he cannot leave the JCPOA suddenly and completely, but he seeks to buy time and disregard the IAEA and secretly follow his nuclear ambitions. To what extent he may be able to play this game, what the international community’s response may be and how the Iranian society will react to all the economic and social shortfalls are matters worth pursuing? 

Cyrus Yaqubi is a Research Analyst and Iranian Foreign Affairs Commentator investigating the social issues and economy of the Middle East countries in general and Iran in particular.

The Iranian regime considers the fall of the Afghan government and the Taliban’s domination of the country to be to its advantage.

The fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban and the turmoil that has shocked the world over has given the Iranian regime an opportunity to use it to put pressure on the West, and especially the United States, to gain more ground in the Vienna talks.

The Vienna talks have been stalled for almost two months now, and with the change of government in Iran and the arrival of new President Ebrahim Raisi, the prospect of a resumption and conclusion of these talks seems darker than before. 

The Iranian regime considers the fall of the Afghan government and the Taliban’s domination of the country to be to its advantage, at least in the short term. Therefore it cautiously and indirectly supports recent developments, assessing that the US is in a tight corner by losing its position in Afghanistan. Thus, they can use this situation to take a tougher stance in the nuclear negotiations, forcing the United States to lift sanctions without giving in to the United States demands to negotiate their missile program and intervention in the region.

Khamenei knows that all the attention of the US government is currently on withdrawing from Afghanistan, and it is under international pressure due to the unexpected and unplanned collapse of the Afghan government and current turmoil in Kabul.

Having this in mind, Khamenei has increased enrichment of Uranium to 60% by adding another centrifuge cascade to send a message to the international community that if Iran’s demands are not heeded, there is little left to increase enrichment to the level of producing an atomic bomb.

It should be noted that Iran’s economy has been severely bankrupt and disintegrated due to widespread government corruption as well as US sanctions. Inflation above 50% and skyrocketing prices have pushed more than 80% of Iranians below the poverty line. Unemployment and the inability to afford high housing costs in metropolitan areas have led to 40% of the urban population being pushed to the outskirts of cities and living in shantytowns.

In addition to the dire economic situation that has made people more impoverished than ever, Iran is currently facing the highest number of casualties due to the COVID__19 pandemic in the world. According to reliable statistics, more than 370,000 people have fallen victim to the disease so far. Although the regime has announced official statistics of a little over 100,000. According to many regime officials, the actual number is 3 to 3.5 times the official figures. Iran is currently struggling with the fifth peak of the disease and more than 2,000 people die from the disease every day.

The main reason for this situation in the first stage was the regime’s secrecy and denial of the Corona outbreak in Iran due to the parliamentary elections.

While other countries of the world took measures to confront the spread of the virus by quarantining the infected cities and regions, Khamenei denied the arrival of the virus in Iran and did not take any action to quarantine the city of Qom, where the first suspicious cases were seen.

In this way, Khamenei was able to hold parliamentary elections that he had engineered to install his handpicked agents in the parliament.

In the next stage and the outbreak of the disease, the ban on the import of vaccines made in the United States and Britain by Khamenei under the pretext of distrusting these vaccines and the promise to make domestic vaccines caused the disease to spread to all Iranian cities and heavy casualties so that now only about 6٪ of the population has been vaccinated. If the vaccine had been imported from the beginning, Iran would not be in such a situation now.

The situation is so critical that for fear of public outrage and revolt, Khamenei was recently forced to announce, the import of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is allowed.

Khamenei is aware of this chaotic situation. He recently faced an uprising in various cities of the oil-rich province of Khuzestan due to water shortages, which quickly spread to cities in other provinces. He knows that he cannot control the situation in this way for a long time, and desperately needs the lifting of sanctions on oil exports to earn revenue, so that perhaps by lowering prices, he can defuse the anger of people which otherwise may increase so much the risk of uprising and overthrow would be seriously at hand.

On the other hand, he is still looking to expand his regime in the region because he considers this expansion as leverage for its survival. But pursuing this policy requires large sums of money to support its proxy forces, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, or the Houthis to intervene in the region. Khamenei, following the example of North Korea, also considers the survival of his regime in obtaining the atomic bomb and tries covertly to achieve this objective.

The current situation in the region has allowed the regime to get closer to its wish. Because Khamenei views that the United States does not want to open a new front in the current situation, and Israel cannot prevent Iran from acquiring an atomic bomb without the help of the United States.

Of course, some observers believe that the circumstances limit the Biden administration’s maneuvering space. Because with the loss of Afghanistan, the United States will no longer give in to the Iranian regime’s demands.

Therefore, with the prospect of the United States not accepting the Iranian regime’s conditions in Vienna talks and the talks reaching a deadlock, the sanctions will continue, and the regime will face the danger of uprising and revolt by Iranians. Khamenei will be left with the only lever he thinks can protect himself from falling. That is an atomic bomb.

Of course, history has shown that even the Soviet Union, with its largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, could not prevent its fall. Therefore, the United States should not give concessions to the Iranian regime to prevent it from acquiring a nuclear weapon, because this will only delay the regime change in Iran, which is what most Iranians want. If the sanctions continue, the Iranian regime will certainly not last long. 

The disgruntled people of Iran, who expressed their dissatisfaction with the widespread boycott of the recent presidential sham election, will overthrow the government much sooner. 

With the establishment of a democratic government in Iran, the entire Middle East region will surely be at peace and quiet.

Cyrus Yaqubi is a Research Analyst and Iranian Foreign Affairs Commentator investigating the social issues and economy of the Middle East countries in general and Iran in particular.

And trust cannot exist as long as Raisi’s regime does.

The very selection of Ebrahim Raisi as an electoral candidate, and then his victory highlighted the sham that is Iran’s electoral process.

Known widely in Iran as the “Hanging Judge” or “The Butcher of Tehran” for his direct role in massacring thousands of political prisoners, Raisi as the president of the Islamic Republic should make clear to the world what has long been clear to the people of Iran: this regime cannot be dealt with because it cannot be trusted.

For nearly half of the regime’s bloody rule, many outside Iran have touted the notion of “reform” or “moderation” within the Islamic Republic establishment. Criminal clerics like Hassan Rouhani and their allies like Javad Zarif have been held out as figures with whom reasoning is possible and for whom Iran’s national interests outweigh those of the system.

Regime apologists who spent years diverting international attention from the Islamic Republic’s crimes against humanity at home and terrorism abroad by promoting the false notion of regime moderation have now pivoted to blame the United States for Raisi’s election. Some have even begun making the case that the man who personally handled the executions of children is not as bad as he may seem.

No matter how well-financed and well-spoken the Islamic Republic’s foreign propaganda machine is it will not be able to change the fact that the hardliners it long said could not be trusted now occupy every relevant position within the Islamic Republic. Their rhetoric, despite its eloquent English and well-placed publication, must defend Raisi’s reality rather than a Viennese fantasy.

In reality, the Islamic Republic cannot be trusted. The facade of trust manufactured by “moderates” like Zarif is now largely discredited and irrelevant due largely to missteps by the moderates themselves. The trust, or rather contrived confidence, during the Obama administration, was based largely on wishful thinking. Both President Obama and Secretary Kerry repeatedly referred to the purported fatwa, or religious edict, that Ali Khamenei had issued against the development of nuclear weapons.

Recently, however, the regime’s intelligence minister has disavowed the fatwa for which Secretary Kerry had “great respect” and said the Islamic Republic was not bound by the edict. Speaking on state television, he said that if Iran were pressured it may indeed develop a nuclear bomb. A theocracy that cannot be trusted to respect even its religious edicts can certainly not be trusted to be loyal to a treaty with countries it has sworn to destroy.

If abrogating a fatwa seems inconsequential, the Iranian regime has long proven itself an untrustworthy partner through various additional breaches of international treaties. Indeed, the very basis of the ongoing talks in Vienna, to the impartial observer, appear more comedy than drama. The P5+1 strategy is simple: diplomatic negotiations in an attempt to control the regime’s nuclear program via an international accord. What they ignore is the Islamic Republic’s long track record of ignoring and breaking international accords, both diplomatic and nuclear.

The Iranian “diplomats”’ sitting across from the French, Germans, and Americans in Vienna represent a regime with no respect for the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations which protects the very diplomats attempting to renegotiate the defunct JCPOA. From taking American diplomats hostage for 444 days as its diplomatic debut to the world, its attempted assassination of the Saudi Ambassador in Washington, and then its sponsored storming of the British Embassy in Tehran, the Islamic Republic has long shown a blatant disregard for diplomacy and indeed a violent animosity towards it.

Iran consistently violates the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty despite remaining an active signatory. It has blocked IAEA access to nuclear sites and continued on its enrichment path in clear breach of mutually agreed to IAEA deadlines and United Nations resolutions. If the regime in Tehran can’t be trusted to respect treaties on diplomacy and nuclear issues it has already signed, why should it now be trusted to respect a diplomatic agreement on its nuclear program?

It can’t. Ebrahim Raisi is a man who personally ordered and watched as Iranian prisoners were raped, newborn babies were thrown against the floor, and activists were executed. His regime violates its own religious edicts and dozens of international laws and conventions. Where trust does not exist, no relationship can exist. And trust cannot exist as long as Raisi’s regime does.

Now is not the time to make a deal with Raisi and his regime. Now is the time to focus on the vast majority of Iranians who boycotted the sham election and are saying, with one voice, “No to the Islamic Republic.”

Cameron Khansarinia is Policy Director National Union for Democracy in Iran. He is an alumni of Harvard University. He tweets under @Khansarinia.

Some experts consider the pain of ordinary people to be a time bomb that the Iranian government ultimately has no power to neutralize

In today’s Iranian society, rising prices, unemployment, a sharp decline in the value of the currency, government corruption, protests by retirees, teachers, workers, and farmers, and long queues to buy food can clearly be seen. Many experts say the economic and living conditions of Iranians cannot easily be measured and calculated by the usual classic criteria, and the danger of the collapse of the Iranian economy sparking an explosion of fury from the distressed people will be seen in the near future.

Afshin Kolahy, a private sector activist, told the Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA)  on March 22, 2021: “Even with the JCPOA agreement,” an extraordinary event “will not happen in Iran, and by the end of 2021 Iran will experience 65% inflation and a dollar equivalency above 35,000 Tomans… In the last few years, we have had a lot of setbacks.”

The supreme leader Khamenei is constantly running to the scene to control the situation. Speaking on March 21^st, 2021 about the country’s production in the past year, he said: “To be fair, there was progress in important sectors of production. In some cases, we could even call it a jump in production, in others, even though there is no jump,  there is definitely progress in production.”

He continued: “Automobile tires, aluminum, petrochemicals, steel, commodities like these, have had progress and growth”.

Khamenei, of course, refers to industries such as the production and distribution of drugs, production, and exploitation of metal and nonmetal mines, the oil, petrochemical, gasoline, diesel, and steel industries, and agro-industrial companies, etc., which are exclusively in the hands of the Supreme Leader  Khamenei and the IRGC affiliated mafia whose profits have skyrocketed at the expense of the closure of hundreds of factories and bankruptcy of small workshops.

Mohsen Dehnavi a member of parliament told the Khane Mellat state-run newspaper on September 8, 2020, that “more than 45,000 industrial and production units are located in industrial parks, of which 21% have been completely shut down,” meaning that about 9,450 production units in industrial parks have been closed.

Tasnim News Agency wrote on January 13, 2021, “More than 2,000 production units have been repossessed and closed by banks.”

One of the consequences of the closure of this number of factories and workshops and the disappearance of many side jobs of these work units is further the impoverishment of the poor and the disappearance of the middle class as they join the deprived classes (Hamdeli State-run newspaper July 15, 2020). This same newspaper on July 18, 2020, quoting Javad Hosseinzadegan, head of the Statistics Center of Iran wrote: “The increase in population of people living in city outskirts, the budget deficit of households, the slipping of the middle class into the poor and even the evaporation of this class are among the thousand and one other harms that feed on poverty.”.

Shargh newspaper, June 24, 2020 wrote, “Households, step by step, are going down from every level of income and we are clearly facing an increase in population of people in city outskirts living in dilapidated structures.”

Ibtekar Newspaper on July 6, 2020, wrote “The collapse of the middle class will have many consequences for the regime. The set of logic governing economic conditions in Iran …. has increased the class distance and removed the middle layer from the top to the bottom of society.”.

The result of such an economy is an increase in popular discontent, which led to protests in 200 cities in November 2019 and continues. During February and March 2021, protests peaked in Saravan, Balochestan, Gonbad Kavus, and Zahedan and led to the setting fire of security forces vehicles making them flee the scene. Government officials, however, resorted to crackdowns, intimidation, and censorship of the Internet, shooting protesters, and arresting and hanging popular young people, such as Navid Afkari, the Iranian wrestling hero, and Ruhollah Zam, an Iranian journalist.

Some experts consider the pain of ordinary people to be a time bomb that the Iranian government ultimately has no power to neutralize. In such circumstances, the Iranian regime is significantly weak and incapable of protecting and securing its interests. Government newspapers now report the smuggling of weapons into Iranian cities on a daily basis..

On March 1, 2021, the Deputy Commander of Khuzestan Police announced the discovery of more than 4,800 illegal weapons in the province since the beginning of the year.

On February 22, 2021, the police commander of West Azerbaijan announced the discovery of weapons and ammunition and the arrest of two members of a gang carrying weapons and ammunition on the Urmia-Tabriz road.

However, with Biden coming to the White House, Iran’s currency rose against the dollar by 20%. Many Iranian officials had hoped that Biden’s victory would mean a return to the 2015 JCPOA but despite Washington’s soft policy toward Tehran, Iran enhanced its nuclear ambitions. When the US foreign minister said we have a long way to go before rejoining the JCPOA, the dollar climbed again against Iran’s currency.

Global condemnation of Iran increased in 2020 as a result of the regime handling of the November 2019 uprising. At the United Nations, Canada proposed a resolution condemning the regime’s human rights record that was successfully passed.

In a letter to Biden, 158 members of Congress condemned the Iranian government’s crackdown on the November 2019 Iranian protests and other human rights abuses and called for a firm policy against the regime.

On March 25, 2021, 43 senators from both parties also wrote to Biden reminding him of the need to use all the tools of Washington’s diplomatic and economic power to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and furthering its destabilizing activities in the region.

All these difficulties highlight the basic and inevitable reality for Iran in 2021, a fact that Iranians have highlighted on social media. It shows the prospect of a severe economic crisis, with dried-up trade and collapsed industry, effectively a country in international isolation.

Hassan Mahmoudi is a Europe-based social analyst, researcher, independent observer, and commentator of Middle Eastern and Iranian Politics. He tweets under @hassan_mahmou1. 

The Iranian regime is missing a big point that these kinds of actions are no longer effective in 2021 and conditions have changed.

On February 25, the US military carried out airstrikes in eastern Syria targeting Iran’s proxy Shia militias. This was an appropriate and justified retaliatory military response to the Iranian regime’s missile strikes on US bases in Iraq, under the new administration. 

In response, on March 3, 2021, Iran, re-launched 10 missiles at Iraq and towards Ein al-Assad, intended to create more tension to falsely show an upper hand and attempt to break up the current balance in the psyche of stakeholders.

The Iranian regime is missing a big point that these kinds of actions are no longer effective in 2021 and conditions have changed. Military rules based on correct geopolitical policy and proper timing affect the international and regional balance.

Tehran’s desperate rocket attack, however, is a sign of the regime’s stalemate inside and a result of international isolation and will shift the balance to its detriment.

On the US side, Biden knows that breaking up the current balance of power created by sacrifices of Iranian protesters and insurgents in 2018 and 2019, which persuaded Trump to adopt the “maximum pressure” policy toward the Iranian regime, is very dangerous.

No one can withstand the strong winds of change! Seeds have been sown in Iranian society in a very harsh international soil and environment over the years that must be harvested, or the crop will be ruined.

In such a situation, the position of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Friday, March 5, 2021, can seriously affect this balance. Khamenei’s announcement of a deadline to pull out of JCPOA and NPT and other bluffs has left him stuck in a deadly impasse with no way forward nor back.

Javan, a state-run newspaper wrote, “The JCPOA is dead”. Meanwhile Congressional Republicans are working on a range of measures to stop the Biden administration from reentering 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, an effort that includes a full-court press to block sanctions relief for Tehran until it fully dismantles its contested nuclear program, according to conversations with multiple GOP foreign policy leaders.

This is an effort that could be backed by mainstream Democrats, especially leaders such as Senator Robert Menendez (D., N.J.), a prominent Iran sanctions champion who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Representative Jim Banks of Indiana (R., Ind.), A member of the House Armed Services Committee, said “the Biden administration is aware it cannot capitulate to Iranian demands for sanctions relief as a prerequisite for diplomatic talks” .

While the State Department has said it is somewhat open to easing sanctions, if this is deemed to be Tehran’s unrealistic demands then the government will face a widespread backlash from US allies.

Banks said, “We will fight against any attempt by the Biden administration to return to the failed Obama strategy on Iran or to accept any ‘Iran Deal lite’ or ‘Iran Deal 2.0’”.

A glance at current Iranian society demonstrates the balance to be completely against the rulers of Iran. Currently, in Iran, the uprising of youth and the suffering people of Sistan and Balochestan has shaken the ground under Khamenei. The main concern of Khamenei and IRGC is for the critical and inflamed situation in Sistan and Balochestan to spread throughout the country.

Government systematic corruption and the looting of billions of dollars of Iranian wealth for nuclear ambitions and the cost of proxy forces have left “current wages are robbing the livelihood of workers.”

Regimes’ official’s corruption has plagued Iran’s economy, with “the value of the minimum wage this year being less than half of what it was in 2019 and a third of the average of 1990 to 2018.” Khamenei is trying to get help from his ally “Coronavirus” and postpones vaccination as much as he can with various justifications to keep people paralyzed and worried and immobilized for his regime to survive.

Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Rouhani are trying to contain the situation by using IRGC to prevent an outburst of the public’s anger. But despite these efforts, nationwide protests by disadvantaged groups, including retirees, have grown steadily over the past two months. The protests of the people of Balochestan have shown the explosive state of Iranian society and how a spark could create an uprising.

Hassan Mahmoudi is a Europe-based social analyst, researcher, independent observer, and commentator of Middle Eastern and Iranian Politics. He tweets under @hassan_mahmou1.     

The revival of the 2015 nuclear deal by the Biden administration could turn the region into a war zone.

In spite of major opposition from many senators and regional powers to the US pursuing appeasement policies toward the Iranian regime, the Biden administration is going ahead with its plan to rejoin the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal, which would see it lift sanctions against Tehran.

Unofficial meetings between the regime and the P5+1 (China, Russia, the US, the UK, France and Germany) seem to be on the way in order to resurrect the nuclear deal. The Biden administration is also reversing the previous administration’s maximum pressure policy on the Islamic Republic. But President Joe Biden ought to realize that a renewal of the nuclear deal could have very different implications in the region compared to when the pact was first struck almost six years ago.

From 2013 to 2015, some governments in the Middle East were cautiously willing to give the Obama administration and the Islamic Republic a chance for diplomacy and negotiations in the hope that the Iranian regime would alter its destructive behavior in the region. After the JCPOA was agreed, former US President Barack Obama said he was “confident” the deal would “meet the national security needs of the United States and our allies.” Throughout Obama’s presidency, the White House made unprecedented concessions in an attempt to appease the ruling mullahs. It met them with generosity and flexibility every step of the way.

Soon after, it became clear that Iran’s funding of violent proxies, in the form of Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, was entirely overlooked during the negotiations. This would never have been the case if the Gulf states or Israel had been at the table. The composition of the P5+1’s negotiating team completely excluded those on Iran’s doorstep, with policy set by governments thousands of miles away in an approach reminiscent of the bygone colonial era.

However, after the nuclear agreement was sealed, the regional powers came to witness its impact first-hand. As sanctions against Iran were lifted, it quickly became clear that the JCPOA gave Iran global legitimacy. This newfound legitimacy and the lifting of sanctions generated billions of dollars in revenue for Iran’s military institution, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as for its proxy militia and terror groups. Tehran used this money to expand its influence throughout the region, including in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon. Its expansionist campaign has proved to be immensely successful.

The Gulf states and Israel recognized that the threat Tehran poses was never adequately thwarted by the JCPOA. The region saw a greater propensity for Houthi rocket launches at civilian targets in Saudi Arabia, the deployment of thousands of Hezbollah foot soldiers in Syria, and the constant bombardment of southern Israel by Iranian-funded Hamas rockets.

This is why Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan told AFP in December: “I think we’ve seen as a result of the after-effects of the JCPOA that not involving the regional countries results in a buildup of mistrust and neglect of the issues of real concern and of real effect on regional security.” And it is also why Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pointed out: “We have already seen the nature of agreements with extremist regimes like yours (the Iranian regime).”

Taking this recent history into account, reviving the 2015 nuclear deal would be a strategic mistake that could devastate the Middle East. By returning to a deal that brought nothing but heightened destruction and instability, the Biden administration would leave the regional powers with no option other than to take firm action against Iran without the US, in order to stop Tehran’s military adventurism in the region.

One possible repercussion of the US rejoining the nuclear deal would be that Israel may take military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities — a move that could spiral into a regional war. Netanyahu last week warned Tehran: “With an agreement or without an agreement, we will do whatever is necessary so you do not arm yourselves with nuclear weapons.” Israeli military chief Aviv Kochavi last month revealed that plans had been drawn up to strike the Iranian regime. He said: “I instructed the army to prepare a number of operational plans in addition to the existing ones. We are taking care of these plans and will develop them during the coming year. Those who decide on carrying them out, of course, are the political leaders. But these plans have to be on the table.”

In a nutshell, the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal by the Biden administration could turn the region into a war zone.

Piece was first published on Arab News.

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh.

Accepting the US’s new conditions would be poisonous for Khamenei, although it might give the regime short term relief…

While Iran is mired in a social, economic, and political quagmire due to widespread and systematic corruption and its officials’ incompetence, the regime’s leaders are knocking on every door to find a way out of this situation. The regime’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Rouhani, who faced sanctions from the Trump administration and have been under severe economic pressure, had invested on US elections, hoping that with US President Biden’s victory, he would immediately return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and lift sanctions, and release Iran’s blocked funds so that the clerics could once again sell oil and perhaps revive their dead economy.  

This is because nearly 60 million of Iran’s 82 million people live below the poverty line. This figure covers 90% of workers in some provinces. Due to the high cost of housing and the inability of people to pay rent, 38 million people have moved to the outskirts of cities and live in very poor conditions, and while the poverty line has reached above 10 million tomans, the salaries of many workers and employees are less than 3 million tomans. Some of these workers and employees have not received their meager salaries for several months. Many people have not tasted meat for several months and many foods have been removed from their diet. Some even buy their daily bread from their neighborhood bakeries in installments and pay for it later.

The Covid-19 pandemic has also exasperated their situation. According to the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), more than 216,000 people have died from the deadly virus with no vaccine in sight.  

Khamenei is still reeling from the November 2019 nationwide protests that seriously threatened his regime. The regime’s Supreme Leader sees the pandemic as an opportunity for his regime’s survival. He used it as an excuse to prevent protests, used it as a smoke screen for his regime’s inefficiency and systematic corruption and at the same time put pressure on the United States to lift sanctions. He banned the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines in Iran and delayed widespread vaccination while encouraging the domestic vaccine production, which is expected to reach production at the end of next summer. However, his decision was met with such negative reactions by Iranians that the regime was forced to import a limited number of vaccines from Russia to douse resentment and dissatisfaction.

But after Biden got to the White House, contrary to Khamenei and Rouhani predictions, the United States conditioned its return to the JCPOA on Iran reversing all its actions that violated the JCPOA, and added Iran’s missile program and its meddling in the region to the mix, as new conditions that should be negotiated within the framework of JCPOA.

The prospect of reaching a new agreement between Iran and the United States to break the deadlock now seems bleak.

For Iran, the return of the US to the 2015 deal, according to which Iran’s restrictions on its nuclear program would expire in almost four years, without getting into its missiles and regional terrorism, is ideal. In addition, sanctions would be lifted, and Iran could sell oil at the same rate of 2.5 million barrels per day, thus, both economically and politically, both inside and outside Iran, show that it has been able to resist and defeat the US.

To this end, it has resorted to maneuvers that increase the pressure on Biden. Some examples of these maneuvers are the ratification of a bill by Iran’s Parliament saying that if sanctions were not lifted by February 23, it would withdraw from the NPT annex and will no longer allow IAEA inspectors access and intrusive inspections of its nuclear sites. Another example was its missile attack on the US Consulate in Erbil, Iraq which the regime thought was a way to show the new US administration its “regional power”.

Although Biden wants to defuse tensions with Iran, he can by no means return to the same situation in 2015 because many American politicians from both the Democratic and Republican parties and US regional allies, including Saudi Arabia and Israel believe the 2015 agreement is no longer acceptable. 

A new agreement that can be called the 2021 agreement is needed now. Even EU countries that were staunch supporters of the JCPOA, including France and Germany, are now talking about the need for new negotiations.

Khamenei will not give up his missile program and his terrorism in the region, because without having an atomic bomb, he considers these levers as his only means of power and survival, especially since the Iranian army, despite having more personnel, is weak and ill equipped compared to regional countries.

Therefore, accepting the US’s new conditions would be poisonous for Khamenei, although it might give the regime short term relief, in a very near future it will lead to the end of the already weak regime. Here is why: The regime is a theocracy which cannot meet the demands of Iranians who hate their religious rulers. Iran’s angry population who are suffering under poverty are sick and tired of the regime’s institutionalized corruption. If Khamenei accepts a new 2021 deal, it will mean he has bowed to the US despite the regime’s 42 years of anti-American rhetoric. This will lead to the collapse of the ruling elite and even the IRGC, which is the regime’s repressive apparatus, will crumble. It remains to be seen whether Khamenei will accept the new conditions or whether, by continuing in the current path, will risk the wrath of angry masses who are waiting for a spark to once again take to the streets and overthrow their dictators once and for all.

Cyrus Yaqubi is a Research Analyst and Iranian Foreign Affairs Commentator investigating the social issues and economy of the middle east countries in general and Iran in particular.

The source of Khamenei’s thinking and plan is based on his hypothesis that the new US administration will not go to war against him..

On February 9, Iran’s intelligence minister said persistent Western pressure could push Tehran to fight back like a “cornered cat” and seek nuclear weapons.

Earlier, on February 7, Khamenei entered the arena under the pretext of the anniversary of the Shah’s air force technicians meeting with Khomeini in 1979 and met with several regime air force commanders.

At the same time, ordinary people from various segments of Iranian society, farmers, teachers, stock market shareholders, retirees, nurses, etc., took to the streets in more than 20 cities to protest unemployment, high prices, corruption and looting by the regime’s gangs, and his regime’s diplomat terrorist Assadi was sentenced to 20 years in prison in Belgium.

Khamenei, however, to cover up these crises did not mention the economic and social problems plaguing his regime, instead focusing his speech on drawing his regime’s roadmap to the JCPOA.

In this speech, Khamenei made every effort to blame the United States and European countries and identify them as the enemy and the culprit. Khamenei does this to gain concessions from the United States through blackmail on uranium enrichment activities to extort them on one hand, and to pave the way for suppression of internal protests on the other.

Khamenei drew a red line for his regime gangs and stressed that no one should deviate from this line and said, “This is the definite and irreversible policy of the Islamic Republic and the common denominator of all officials and no one will deviate from it.”

The source of Khamenei’s thinking and plan is based on his hypothesis that the new US administration will not go to war against him and is inclined to appease him, thus he can gain more points by resorting to mumbo jumbo and sophistry.

He pursues the same policy in dealing with the coronavirus crisis inside Iran. In his speech on January 8, 2021, he said, “We do not trust the vaccines from the United States and Britain, and the two vaccines are forbidden to enter the country”.

By doing so, he intends to protect his regime from the danger of uprisings and protests and keep the people busy with coronavirus crises by delaying vaccination as much as possible.

But what is the reality?

Is it possible to return to the previous balance of 2015?

The fact is the rules of the game have changed and it is not possible to return to the previous balance.

The bipartisan letter was sent to the president on Thursday and corresponded with the introduction of a resolution co-sponsored by 112 lawmakers from both sides of the aisle reaffirming U.S. support for Iranian civil society.

It also notes the struggle of the Iranian people in the country itself, highlighting protests in Nov. 2019 and the execution of a wrestling champion in September. The NCRI has pushed for a democratic, secular Iran and the resolution notes the 10-point plan put forward by its president-elect.

From the social point of view in Iran, everything has changed after the uprisings of 2017 and at their height of 2019.

The fact is that today the circle of possible negotiations between the P5 + 1 and the regime is no longer closed, as French President Macron bluntly put it, “Saudi Arabia must also be” involved “in any negotiations with Iran for a new agreement.”

More importantly, Biden responded no to a CBS television presenter on February 7, 2021, who asked if he would lift sanctions to begin negotiations.

Abdullah Izadpanah in the mullahs’ parliament on February 7, 2021, said, “The threshold of tolerance of the people has sharply decreased. Youth unemployment is a serious threat.”

Ali Bigdeli, a government expert, contradicted Khamenei and emphasized that we have no choice but to retreat and negotiate and said, “Also consider that bearing these heavy economic pressures is not tolerable for the Iranian people.

Iran should try to get rid of this poisonous atmosphere and political isolation because the continuation of this situation can lead to social uprisings. (Jahan Sanat newspaper, February 7)

A citizen posted a video on social media on February 5, 2021, and in that said, “Hello. today, Friday, February 5, right now in Nayshabour’s Eastgah street at 7 o’clock I saw they broke a window and ripped apart a photo of Khamenei. It is evident that people are tired of them. I hope this year would be the last of these dictators ruling us. I hope for that day.”

So, Khamenei has taken a big risk, this is a double-edged sword that can end up chopping Khamenei. The result of such a policy can be seen in the regime’s approaches to international relations.

Ghalibaf left for Moscow on February 5, 2021, with a message from Khamenei. But they did not let him into the Kremlin …! The so-called “reformist” gang took a swing at Ghalibaf and said that this was an insult for the regime …! What is the reality now? Why did Putin meet with Qassem Soleimani before, violating UN protocols, and even met with Khamenei in Tehran, but now they do not let in Khamenei’s message carrier …?

The fact is the rules of the game have changed to the detriment of the mullahs’ regime. Khamenei who is terrified of popular uprisings and protests understands such a change before anyone else!

Hassan Mahmoudi is a Europe-based social analyst, researcher, independent observer, and commentator of Middle Eastern and Iranian Politics. He tweets under @hassan_mahmou1.