At least 682 people were confirmed missing as of March 16, making the start of 2026 the deadliest on record for the route, according to the International Organization for Migration, though officials say the true toll is likely significantly higher.

Humanitarian groups and researchers say a growing lack of transparency from authorities is obscuring the number of deaths at sea, with fewer incidents documented or independently verified.

“It’s a strategy of silence,” said Matteo Villa of the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, pointing to the absence of official data releases and limited responses to media inquiries.Even the IOM has struggled to track cases. Julia Black, who leads its Missing Migrants Project, said the agency has created a separate dataset for “unverifiable cases,” with more than 400 already recorded this year alone.

Concerns intensified after Cyclone Harry struck in late January, bringing heavy rain, strong winds and high waves that disrupted migration routes.Groups including Refugees in Libya reported more than 1,000 people missing following the storm, though authorities have neither confirmed nor denied those figures.

In the weeks after the cyclone, bodies were found along coastlines in Italy and Libya, while others were seen floating at sea. Only one known survivor has been identified from boats reported missing during that period.Limited official responseRepeated requests for information by media outlets to authorities in Italy, Tunisia and Malta have gone unanswered.

Agencies have either declined to comment or said they lack verified information.Frontex said it detected several migrant boats during the cyclone period, with some rescued, but confirmed that the fate of others remains unknown.

Analysts say the information gap reflects a broader policy shift. Tunisia curtailed public data on migrant interceptions in 2024, citing security concerns, while Italy gradually reduced reporting on rescue operations, discontinuing detailed updates in recent years.

The tightening flow of information has coincided with wider crackdowns on migration across the region, including restrictions on humanitarian groups and reduced funding, limiting independent monitoring.

For families of missing migrants, the absence of verified information has compounded the humanitarian toll, leaving many without answers about the fate of their relatives.

The conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran has entered its third week, with the Strait of Hormuz — a corridor for roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows effectively constrained by Iranian drones and naval mines.

Several U.S. partners, including Germany, Spain and Italy, said they had no immediate plans to send warships to secure the passage, citing legal and political constraints.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Berlin lacked a mandate from the United Nations, the European Union or NATO, and added that Germany had not been consulted prior to the launch of military operations.

Trump, speaking in Washington, said some countries had expressed willingness to assist but criticised others for what he described as a lack of enthusiasm despite long-standing U.S. support.

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has heightened fears of supply shocks and inflationary pressure, as energy markets react to restricted flows through one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.Iran has targeted oil infrastructure across the Gulf, including facilities in the United Arab Emirates.

Drone strikes hit an oil facility in Fujairah for a second consecutive day, while operations at key sites, including the Shah gas field in Abu Dhabi, were suspended.

Airspace closures and temporary halts at major hubs, including Dubai’s international airport, underscored the wider economic and logistical impact.

There was no pause in hostilities, with Israel saying it struck Iranian infrastructure in Tehran and positions linked to Hezbollah in Beirut. Israeli officials have indicated plans for at least three more weeks of military operations.

Iran launched overnight strikes on Israel, demonstrating continued long-range capabilities, while warning it would target energy assets in any country facilitating attacks on its territory.

Tehran has also accused the UAE of serving as a launch point for recent U.S. strikes on Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil export hub, signalling a potential widening of the conflict’s geographic scope.

Speaking to the newspaper on Saturday, Trump described Meloni as “a great leader” and said Italy was doing what it could to help in the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. “She always tries to help, she is an excellent leader and she is a friend of mine,” Trump said, according to the report.Italy signals support roleItaly has taken steps in recent days indicating a possible role in regional security efforts linked to the conflict.

Meloni said on Thursday that Rome was planning to send air-defence assistance to Gulf countries facing Iranian air strikes.The move reflects broader European concerns about the security implications of escalating hostilities in the Middle East.Naval deployment near eastern MediterraneanSeparately, an Italian navy vessel is preparing to sail to Cyprus, an Italian navy spokesperson said on Friday. The deployment is part of a joint European mission intended to help protect the island after it came under Iranian fire.The operation underscores growing military coordination among European countries as regional tensions intensify.

Diplomatic alignment with WashingtonTrump’s remarks highlight the close political relationship between Washington and Rome under Meloni’s leadership. Italy, a NATO member and a key European Union economy, has maintained strong security ties with the United States.Italian officials have not detailed the full scope of their potential involvement, but recent defence measures suggest Rome is positioning itself to support regional security initiatives connected to the conflict.

Support for regional partnersItaly’s government said the planned assistance aims to strengthen defensive capabilities in affected areas and ensure the safety of Italian personnel stationed in the broader Middle East.Rome maintains military deployments and energy interests across the region, and officials said the measures were intended to reduce risks to Italian nationals and infrastructure linked to the country’s energy security.

Meloni said Italy would work with partners to reinforce defensive systems where necessary, describing the move as part of broader coordination with allies responding to the security situation.Focus on energy and securityItalian authorities said the decision reflects concerns about potential disruptions to energy supply routes and the safety of facilities connected to European energy markets.Officials noted that instability in the Gulf region could have implications for global energy flows, prompting governments to take precautionary steps to protect assets and personnel.

Opposition criticism at homeOpposition parties criticised Meloni for announcing the measures without first briefing parliament, saying the government should have sought legislative discussion before committing to security assistance abroad.Government officials said the decision was driven by urgency and the need to respond quickly to the evolving situation, while reaffirming that Italy remained committed to coordination with European and international partners.