Mostapha Hassan Abdelwahab

The Iranians want the leadership to stop wasting the country’s resources on extraterritorial follies and allocate these vast resources to the Iranian people, who have long been denied a dignified living.

The 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran was a watershed moment in the country’s modern political history. It signaled the end of monarchy and the beginning of republicanism in its Islamic version. The revolution was led by Ayatollah Khomeini, a jurist who established Velayat-e Faqih theory. It had both successes and failures. The successes came early and were fleeting, while the failures came later and continue to this day. Yet, the successes only benefited the clerical revolutionary elite, but the failures have caused harm to all people. 

The first success is the revolution’s own success. On January 16, 1979, Iran’s Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi fled the country. Three months later, Iranians decisively voted in favor of creating an Islamic republic in a referendum. After creating the Islamic state he had long desired and for which he had laid out doctrines and written books, Khomeini launched a drive to purge opponents, which he was remarkably successful in.

Abolhassan Bani-Sadr, a leftist president who was always at conflict with the clerical leadership, was the first president of the newly founded Islamic regime. Khomeini didn’t tolerate his opposition. Accordingly, Bani Sadr fled the country in 1981, only two years after the revolution’s victory.

Aside from Bani Sadr, thousands of dissenters were executed as part of Khomeini’s dissident persecution. The Iranian religious government developed a ‘death committee’, which oversaw the mass execution of thousands of dissidents. The government not only murdered dissidents, but it also closed down newspapers and abolished unions. Non-Islamists were the first to be swept out in the purge, which marked the beginning of Islamist success in consolidating power. 

The regime’s ideology was also a triumph. Velayat-e-Faqih was an ideological cornerstone upon which the Iranian system was founded from the beginning.

The Shiite Islamic concept of Velayat-e-Faqih has historically been used to justify limited clerical guardianship over a specific sector of the population: widows, orphans, and the disabled. Its current form is a relatively recent interpretation of the ideology produced in the early 1970s by the revolutionary Iranian cleric Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

This theory is a success per se. It is the first theory in Shiite law to break with the quietist Shiite tradition that avoids political involvement. The theory has been present as the ideological governor of the political system throughout the revolution’s four decades. It was solidified within domestic state institutions and disseminated beyond borders. 

Despite these victories, primarily political and ideological, the Islamic revolution entered an era of failure, beginning with a single early but humiliating military defeat to Iraq during the eight-year war between the two neighbors in the 1980s. Iran was defeated in the war, and Khomeini was forced to drink the poisoned chalice.

This external failure has prompted further failures, including internal political and economic failures. These failings have degraded the country’s economic capacities and pulverized the political landscape under one-man, quasi-divine rule.

After the war, Iran attempted to mend fences with the outside world, allowing more moderate’ reformists to ascend to power, including Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami. All of these attempts, however, have been futile because the regime split labor, with the military and intelligence institutions having the upper hand at both home and overseas. The democratic, moderate, and gestures aimed to placate the West were ineffective, resulting in a diplomatic failure.

This diplomatic failure has endured, with the country facing crushing sanctions on its economy as a result of its contentious nuclear program, ballistic missile program, and regional and global backing for terror networks.

The regime’s most recent failure has been economic in nature. Iran is a wealthy country with vast oil and gas reserves, the most of which are concentrated in the Arab region of Ahwaz. However, the Iranian people are impoverished. The reason is simple: the Iranian regime is funneling most of the country’s resources and earnings to its proxy actors abroad, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iraqi militias, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in Palestine. The clerical regime is generous abroad but stingy at home. There are no adequate or sufficient expenditures in Iran’s budget for the long-suffering Iranian people, but people’s money is lavished on primarily non-Iranian fighters operating beyond boundaries to spread the regime’s ideology and achieve its expansionist ambitions. 

It is a failure to prioritize the needs of the people. And the consequences of this failure have been catastrophic. Poverty is widespread throughout Iran. The currency has been falling to record lows. The majority of Iranians are unable to make ends meet. Iranians have staged repeated protests after sanctions were imposed, namely in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2022. The protesters’ demands are politico-economic. The Iranians want the leadership to stop wasting the country’s resources on extraterritorial follies and allocate these vast resources to the Iranian people, who have long been denied a dignified living.

Even after establishing the morality police, Iran was unable to sustain the apparatus, which was engaged in the killing of the Kurdish girl Mahsa Amini, the episode that signaled the end of the religious machinery. In this regard, the regime has failed to defend its vision for enforcing the Islamic dress code and public morals, for which it has established morality police.

To sum up, the Iranian revolution had made successes at the organizational, ideological and political levels. But it has failed to sustain these successes, with failures prevailing throughout the revolution’s course, which is a stone’s throw from downfall. The regime was successful in consolidating control and suppressing opposition both at home and abroad. However, it has failed miserably to strengthen the economy or establish a democratic political process. The regime was able to entrench its ideology by intimidation and indoctrination. Nonetheless, it has failed to persuade large segments of the population to embrace it willingly. The first anniversary of Iran’s revolution was marked by success. But on the 44th, failure reigns supreme. And if events continue on this course, the regime will collapse wholly and entirely in the end, with the people finally gaining their long-awaited triumph.

Mostapha Hassan Abdelwahab is the former editorial manager of the English edition of the Baghdad Post. He is focusing on Iraq, Iran and political Islam movements, with articles posted on the Herald Report, Vocal Europe, the Greater Middle East and other platforms.

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not reflect Milli Chronicle’s point-of-view.

Only when the defendant/ has been found guilty by all three courts is the sentence carried out

Saudi Arabia announced on Saturday that it had executed 81 men. Here are the details about who they were and what they did.

But before we get into that, we need to understand a little background about the legal process in Saudi Arabia. 

There are several stages to the process starting with the Criminal Court. When someone is found guilty of a capital crime in that court, the case then moves to the Appellate Court. If they are still found guilty, the case moves to the Supreme Court.

If either the Appellate Court or the Supreme Court finds the defendant/s not guilty, the case goes back to the Criminal Court for a retrial. Only when the defendant/ has been found guilty by all three courts is the sentence carried out.

Now, what have all three courts found the different defendants guilty of:

Talal Mohammed Al-Faisal is a Saudi-based thinker. He writes and tweets about Business and Politics. He tweets under @tmafaisal.

Ministry tweeted, “As part of efforts to protect national security, a proactive security operation in cooperation with the National Intelligence Agency, the CID: Terrorists arrested for plotting terrorist operations against security and civil peace”.

“Weapons and explosives from Iran were seized” from the group who “are linked with terrorist groups in Iran,” the brief statement said.

In 2020, Bahrain said it had foiled a terrorist attack backed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Iran played a major catastrophe role in Bahrain during the 2012 uprising, which was successfully confronted by Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

The severity of poverty in Iran has reached such a level that there are many people with disabilities who have been forced to sell their wheelchairs to survive!

When Khomeini made his triumphant return to Iran in 1979, the population of the country was 36 million.

In the 42 years that have followed, Iran’s population has grown to more than 85 million. At that time, in 1979, due to incompetence and corruption of the monarchy, there were no reliable statistics on poverty in Iran, but according to a research article by Javad Salehi Esfahani, an Iranian economist at Virginia Tech University, titled “Revolution and Wealth Distribution in Iran” which had been published on the World Bank website: In 1977, two years before the revolution, 48% of Iranians were living in poor rural areas, and 28% of the city dwellers also lived below the poverty line. In other words, about one-third of Iranians lived below the poverty line.

Forty-some years after the revolution, according to Shahab Naderi, a member of the Economic Commission of the Iranian Parliament, 80% of Iran’s population lives below the poverty line.

In 1979, the Iranian per capita GDP was $10,000, while in 2019, the per capita GDP was less than $7,000.

But on Nov. 2, 2019, at the inauguration of a development project to mark the 40th anniversary of the revolution, Mohammad Ali Jafari, ex-commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, declared this: “Before the revolution, 46% of the population lived below the poverty line”. He adds: “in 2016, only about 10% of the people live below the poverty line”. He then concludes that “such a huge drop is the direct result of the Islamic revolution and a pride for the country”.

What it shows is that the regime in Tehran is a master at demagoguery and deception.

The statistics offered by Jafari could not be found on any reputable website. They were absolutely baseless lies.

According to research, in the first decade of 2000, many Iranian heads of families, despite having jobs, could not provide the minimum living needs for their families, and the problem of child malnutrition, associated with adult poverty, was one of the immediate effects of such a substandard lifestyle in Iran.

According to the ILNA news agency in a report dated Oct. 20, 2021, more than 95% of the Iranian labor community currently do not have job security and experience a life full of pressure and stress. The Iranian workers are at the bottom of the pyramid regarding their inadequate income and high cost of living.

According to Tasnim News Agency in a report dated Dec. 30, 2020: “…their food basket (expenses have) increased by about 200% in the period of 9 months before this date. Their housing costs have increased five times in a period of 2 years. With these conditions, the 14,494,000 officially insured workers, who number more than 49 million with their families and make up about 58 percent of the population, are just trying to survive, not live”.

The severity of poverty in Iran has reached such a level that there are many people with disabilities who have been forced to sell their wheelchairs to survive!

Another sign of poverty is the presence of too many beggars in cities, who have become an “increasing problem” for society due to their large numbers.

Another product of such a broken economy is the presence of working children in every city throughout Iran. The exact number of working children is not known, but it is estimated to be 3 million, who instead of going to school and studying are wandering in the streets of big cities, engaged in peddling or looking through garbage bins, collecting recyclable items so that they can provide food for their families.

According to Mohammad Reza Mahboobfar, a member of the Land Management Association of Iran, in 2017, about 40% of the urban population of Iran were living on the outskirts in substandard situations. After three years in 2020, along with inflation, skyrocketing prices in the housing sector, rent hikes, etc., the population living in the shantytowns has reached 45%.

If we calculate this 45% of 85 million people in Iran, it means more than 38 million Iranians have been forced to move and live in slums on the outskirts of cities and lack the necessary living facilities such as running water and electricity, sewage system, school, hospital and park and playground for children, etc.

However, with these circumstances, the Iranian regime has not stopped its nuclear and missile programs and the expansionist policies of meddling in other countries! According to Falahatpisheh, a member of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, in the last decade, Iran has spent more than $30 billion just to support the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. To this figure, we should add the payout to its proxy groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Palestine, and various groups in Iraq, which amount to millions of dollars each month.

On the other hand, due to the institutionalized corruption in Iran’s governmental organizations and IRGC, and astronomical thefts and embezzlement have earned Iran number 1 rank in the number of millionaires in the Middle East. The children of these people, who are all affiliated with the regime officials, live in aristocracy in Iran, Canada, the United States, and European countries.

With such class divide and widespread poverty and discontent pervading more than 90% of society, it can be expected that Iran will soon witness a scene of unrest and uprisings comparable to those that we saw in November 2019. The difference is that this time Khamenei will not be able to suppress them easily, because the people have nothing to lose and they are determined to change the regime in Iran.

Cyrus Yaqubi is a Research Analyst and Iranian Foreign Affairs Commentator investigating the social issues and economy of the Middle East countries in general and Iran in particular.

And trust cannot exist as long as Raisi’s regime does.

The very selection of Ebrahim Raisi as an electoral candidate, and then his victory highlighted the sham that is Iran’s electoral process.

Known widely in Iran as the “Hanging Judge” or “The Butcher of Tehran” for his direct role in massacring thousands of political prisoners, Raisi as the president of the Islamic Republic should make clear to the world what has long been clear to the people of Iran: this regime cannot be dealt with because it cannot be trusted.

For nearly half of the regime’s bloody rule, many outside Iran have touted the notion of “reform” or “moderation” within the Islamic Republic establishment. Criminal clerics like Hassan Rouhani and their allies like Javad Zarif have been held out as figures with whom reasoning is possible and for whom Iran’s national interests outweigh those of the system.

Regime apologists who spent years diverting international attention from the Islamic Republic’s crimes against humanity at home and terrorism abroad by promoting the false notion of regime moderation have now pivoted to blame the United States for Raisi’s election. Some have even begun making the case that the man who personally handled the executions of children is not as bad as he may seem.

No matter how well-financed and well-spoken the Islamic Republic’s foreign propaganda machine is it will not be able to change the fact that the hardliners it long said could not be trusted now occupy every relevant position within the Islamic Republic. Their rhetoric, despite its eloquent English and well-placed publication, must defend Raisi’s reality rather than a Viennese fantasy.

In reality, the Islamic Republic cannot be trusted. The facade of trust manufactured by “moderates” like Zarif is now largely discredited and irrelevant due largely to missteps by the moderates themselves. The trust, or rather contrived confidence, during the Obama administration, was based largely on wishful thinking. Both President Obama and Secretary Kerry repeatedly referred to the purported fatwa, or religious edict, that Ali Khamenei had issued against the development of nuclear weapons.

Recently, however, the regime’s intelligence minister has disavowed the fatwa for which Secretary Kerry had “great respect” and said the Islamic Republic was not bound by the edict. Speaking on state television, he said that if Iran were pressured it may indeed develop a nuclear bomb. A theocracy that cannot be trusted to respect even its religious edicts can certainly not be trusted to be loyal to a treaty with countries it has sworn to destroy.

If abrogating a fatwa seems inconsequential, the Iranian regime has long proven itself an untrustworthy partner through various additional breaches of international treaties. Indeed, the very basis of the ongoing talks in Vienna, to the impartial observer, appear more comedy than drama. The P5+1 strategy is simple: diplomatic negotiations in an attempt to control the regime’s nuclear program via an international accord. What they ignore is the Islamic Republic’s long track record of ignoring and breaking international accords, both diplomatic and nuclear.

The Iranian “diplomats”’ sitting across from the French, Germans, and Americans in Vienna represent a regime with no respect for the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations which protects the very diplomats attempting to renegotiate the defunct JCPOA. From taking American diplomats hostage for 444 days as its diplomatic debut to the world, its attempted assassination of the Saudi Ambassador in Washington, and then its sponsored storming of the British Embassy in Tehran, the Islamic Republic has long shown a blatant disregard for diplomacy and indeed a violent animosity towards it.

Iran consistently violates the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty despite remaining an active signatory. It has blocked IAEA access to nuclear sites and continued on its enrichment path in clear breach of mutually agreed to IAEA deadlines and United Nations resolutions. If the regime in Tehran can’t be trusted to respect treaties on diplomacy and nuclear issues it has already signed, why should it now be trusted to respect a diplomatic agreement on its nuclear program?

It can’t. Ebrahim Raisi is a man who personally ordered and watched as Iranian prisoners were raped, newborn babies were thrown against the floor, and activists were executed. His regime violates its own religious edicts and dozens of international laws and conventions. Where trust does not exist, no relationship can exist. And trust cannot exist as long as Raisi’s regime does.

Now is not the time to make a deal with Raisi and his regime. Now is the time to focus on the vast majority of Iranians who boycotted the sham election and are saying, with one voice, “No to the Islamic Republic.”

Cameron Khansarinia is Policy Director National Union for Democracy in Iran. He is an alumni of Harvard University. He tweets under @Khansarinia.

Many Iranians have not tasted meat and fruit for months and have not been able to make ends meet.

The first year of the Iranian calendar starts with the year the Prophet Mohammad migrated from Mecca to Medina.  The first day though, coincides with the first day of spring, celebrated by Iranians as “Nowruz” or New Day.

Iranians celebrate Nowruz with traditional festivals, and it has been a national holiday since the rule of Cyrus the Great (538 BC). Historically, the celebration was to mark the victory of the Zoroastrian God, Ahura Mazda over the evil spirit, Ahriman.

Nowruz celebrations include many customs, including spring cleaning, buying new garments and household items, visiting family members and neighbors, as well as setting up a table called “Haftsin” or the table with seven items beginning with the letter ‘S’ in Farsi.

The Haftsin table includes hyacinths called ‘sonbol’ in Farsi, wheat, barley or lentin sprouts or ‘sabzeh’, sweet pudding made from wheat germ called ‘samanu’, vinegar or ‘serke’, jujube berries or ‘senjed’, garlic or ‘sir’, apple or ‘sib’ in Persian, and sumac.

It also includes a goldfish, a mirror, the holy book, painted eggs, and candles.

This year, Iranians are bearing the brunt of a collapsed economy, some paying for bread in installments and standing in long lines for basic food items. However, they will still arrange their Haftsins in hope of a bright future.

The holiday custom of spring cleaning usually starts a few days before the New Year.

Iranians hope to “spring clean” their country this year by getting rid of the corrupt regime, a clerical rule that has lasted 42 long years.

Iran has historically been invaded and occupied in the past 3,000 years by different ethnicities and cultures, but still, the Nowruz celebrations never faded, and the tradition lived on.

Another Nowruz custom is the fire festival. The fire festival or ‘Chaharshanbeh Suri’ is held on the last Tuesday of the year, when Iranians jump over small bonfires. The symbolic gesture is meant to purify against evil and misery.

Due to the explosive state of the society, the clerical regime fears the traditional fire festival will get out of hand and discourages the celebration. Many are arrested for selling or buying firecrackers. In 2019, Tehran’s Chief of Police announced 280 arrests of “troublemakers” and threatened the public against actions that he deemed as “destructive” in the festival.

The first five days of the New Year are considered official holidays. This is when Iranians visit friends and family members by reinstating friendly relations and letting go of past grudges. Iranians welcome their guests and serve them with a variety of traditional Persian sweets, a mixture of nuts and fruit.

However, ordinary Iranians have lost most of their purchasing power this year and many say they cannot provide the traditional snacks for Nowruz. They are angry at the damaged economy and systematic corruption of the regime. Due to the high inflation rate in Iran’s crumbling economy, the prices of basic foods have increased and Iranians have to spend up to 40% or more on goods.

Another custom of Nowruz includes elders giving gifts or money to the young members of the family. The spirit of Nowruz includes spreading joy, love, and hope, and driving out grief and misery.

After the anti-Shah revolution in 1979, Rohullah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic came to power. Khomeini and his clerical rule discouraged Nowruz celebrations, saying it was affiliated with Zoroastrianism, and that it was pagan and anti-Islamic.   

However, knowing how much most Iranians loved the traditional Nowruz celebrations and rituals, they feared opposition and did not officially prohibit it. Instead, the clerics try to diminish it by encouraging Islamic holidays.  

After 42 years of theocratic rule, the regime has brought about nothing but misery, poverty, corruption, and death. Over 60 million Iranians live under the poverty line, which accounts for 70% of the population. Many Iranians have not tasted meat and fruit for months and have not been able to make ends meet.

A report published by the Statistical Center of Iran in November 2020 said Iranians were not able to buy basic groceries. Average Iranians eat 52% less red meat, while those with lower incomes eat 65% less red meat compared to last year, the report said.  Iranians are also eating 34% less rice, the country’s staple food.  

Workers across the country have not received their wages for months, and there are protests held in several cities by teachers, nurses, and pensioners on a weekly basis.

The COVID-19 pandemic aggravated Iran’s economic problems. In addition to the battle with the deadly virus, many workers have lost their jobs, or have not received wages for many months.

While Mullah regime elites thrive in their luxurious lives, the result of corruption and embezzlement, Iranians can barely afford food for Nowruz.

Still, Iranians are determined to celebrate Nowruz and replace the current sorrow and oppression with happiness and hope.

Cyrus Yaqubi is a Research Analyst and Iranian Foreign Affairs Commentator investigating the social issues and economy of the middle east countries in general and Iran in particular.

In recent decades, “Chaharshanbeh Soori” has become a scene of protests and outrage against the regime in cities across Iran…

The Iranian people hold various festivals throughout the year, many based on ancient Persian traditions. Chaharshanbeh Soori is one such celebration that is nearly 4000 years old and is one of the most popular festivities among Iranians, with deep historical and traditional roots.

By celebrating this festival Iranians demonstrate non-acceptance of inaction and silence and pave the way for uprising and change by revolting against the ruling regime despite facing the coronavirus pandemic on top of the ever-present repression and violation of their human rights.

Jumping over small bushes of fire, symbolizing purification and burning away of harmful energies, at dusk on the eve of the last Wednesday of the Persian calendar year shows the people’s determination to achieve victory and get rid of the mullahs’ control.

This year, Iranians will celebrate “Chaharshanbeh Soori” from the evening of March 16, 2021. The celebration is already worrying the police and judicial authorities.

As the national holiday of “Chaharshanbeh Soori” approaches ever nearer, the police and judicial authorities of the dictatorial regime issue more threats to prevent this celebration from turning into a revolt against the ruling regime.

In this fire festival, Iranians traditionally jump over small burning bushes and pieces of wood in public places such as streets, alleys, and squares. They also gather around the fires, clasping hands in a circle, and sing.

The usual goal is to hope for a brighter future and happiness during the coming year, but there is an additional fervor for this year’s celebration. This year, people are using the occasion of “Chaharshanbeh Soori” to bring resolution to their 42 year-old problem and to boost their efforts in battling against the mullahs ruling in Iran since 1979, which constitutes the darkest period of contemporary Iran.

Iranian officials are now very scared of this festival and publish circulars in the media aiming to intimidate the public and to prevent Iranians from celebrating the “Chaharshanbeh Soori”.

Military commanders have expressed concern that the situation will worsen during the celebration, and have already put all special units, city police, and police stations on high alert.

Top provincial officials have already warned that stores should not sell firework materials, or firecrackers. They have threatened that intrusive inspections will be carried out as soon as the fireworks start, and severe measures will be taken against the slightest violation.

Sardar Hossein Rahimi, Greater Tehran Police Chief, pointed out: “If, God forbid, people engage in risky behaviors on the night of the last Wednesday of the year, they will face a serious and severe treatment from the police and the judiciary. He said that we are fully prepared to deal with the last Wednesday of the year and the necessary arrangements have been made for this night”.

Authorities under the pretext of the coronavirus pandemic are trying to prevent any gathering and are warning: “Due to approaching the last Wednesday of the year, if you do not follow the health instructions, people are more likely to be infected with the coronavirus”.

Also, the cyber police, a suppressive force unique to Iran, announced, “Websites that post instructions on how to make firecrackers and fireworks on the Internet will be prosecuted”.

Nevertheless, the youth intend to celebrate this national event by intensifying their activities despite the security measures, by burning pictures and posters of the Iranian leader Ali Khamenei and Qassem Soleimani.

In recent decades, “Chaharshanbeh Soori” has become a scene of protests and outrage against the regime in cities across Iran. Last year, the sound of firecrackers exploding by angry Iranian youth was constantly heard in many cities, but this year’s festival is different from last year, especially after the November and December 2019 uprisings.

As a result, Iranians, by celebrating “Chaharshanbeh Soori” on Tuesday, March 16th 2021, will send a message to the Supreme Leader that “fire is a symbol of our long struggle against dictatorship”.

Iranians are already posting messages on social media that we are all together and Coronavirus and repression will not slow us down.

Hassan Mahmoudi is a Europe-based social analyst, researcher, independent observer, and commentator of Middle Eastern and Iranian Politics. He tweets under @hassan_mahmou1.     

Systematic corruption is the pseudonym of the Iranian regime. As long as this regime exists, corruption will exist.

Per capita income and Gini index are two criteria that represent the income and income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or a group of people in a society. According to available statistics, per capita income (PCI) or average income of Iranian households has been declining instead of increasing over time. On top of that according to the head of the Iranian Chamber of Commerce, during the four decades after the revolution, the country’s economy had single-digit inflation for only four years and double-digit inflation for the rest of the years, which means higher prices, reduced purchasing power and loss of livelihood. This is primarily due to the regime’s erroneous economic policies, which are the result of incompetence and corruption in all the ruling institutions.

After the withdrawal of the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), international companies left Iran and oil exports reached the lowest possible level. To compensate for the budget deficit caused by the reduction in oil exports, the Iranian regime manipulated the foreign exchange rate, borrowed from the central bank, sold state-owned companies and factories, and swayed the stock market, and has recently started extracting bitcoins. All these measures are what observers call the “wrong policies” and the “mismanagement of the economy” which “has exacerbated the stagflation in recent years.”

Ishaq Jahangiri, Iran’s First Vice President, said on January 24 during a visit to an oil, gas and petrochemical exhibition that “sanctions have reduced Iran’s revenue by about $100 billion.”

“If it were not for sanctions, $100 billion would have been invested in the country, increasing per capita income and reducing poverty.”

The regime has always blamed the US for all its economic failures despite its systematic corruption. However, even before sanctions, Iran was suffering from a crumbling economy. Many believe that sanctions have not played a major role in the declining trend of the Iranian economy. The main problem is neither sanctions nor investment; the problem is institutionalized corruption and mismanagement.

Systematic corruption is the pseudonym of the Iranian regime. As long as this regime exists, corruption will exist. And as Javad Mansouri, regime elite and former IRGC commander famously said in 2013, “even if gold fell from the sky” nothing will change.

During the eight-year administration of former Iran President Ahmadinejad, Iran earned more than $100 billion from oil sales. But most of that money went to the regime’s belligerence in the region, its covert atomic bomb program, missile program expansion, and into the pockets of officials and elites, not to the people or in investments and development.

According to the head of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, “from 2012 to 2020, about $90 billion of capital was taken out of the country.”

“The inflation index has always been in double digits for more than four decades, except for four years, and Iran is among the nine countries with double-digit inflation in the world,” Massoud Khansari added in a parliamentary meeting said.

According to the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, liquidity has increased from 354 trillion tomans in 2012, to 3,130 trillion tomans in the first nine months of this (Persian) year. An amount that threatens the economy like a destructive avalanche. This index has experienced an average annual negative growth of 5%.

 According to the Parliamentary Research Center, while Iran’s national per capita income was 5,760 million tomans in 2005, it is now 4,740 million tomans putting 35% of the population, or nearly four lower income groups of the population, below the line of poverty.

Two years ago, the government more than tripled the official exchange rate for the dollar. This policy increased the dollar exchange rate in the open market and the value of each dollar surged to 32,000 tomans.

The rising dollar exchange rate, in turn, has made essential consumer goods more expensive and has caused loss of livelihood. Even government agencies are reporting a reduction in protein consumption in low-income households adding that some families no longer eat meat and fruit.

In the past year, the coronavirus epidemic has also intensified the recession and inflation in Iran at the same time. Although the Statistics Center of Iran has falsely reported a decrease in unemployment, the estimates of the Parliament’s Research Center indicate an increase in unemployment which is now officially at 24.5%. The real figure, however, is much higher.  

In the last three years, Iran has experienced economic growth of negative 5% and inflation above 30%, which is the highest and longest inflationary recession in the economic history of Iran.

The Statistics Center of Iran announced the official inflation rate as 44.7% in November 2020. The inflation rate for foodstuffs is 59%.

Khansari, who is also the Vice President of the Iranian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, cited the government’s six-year budget deficit and said “during the first nine months of this (Persian) year, 83% of the assignment of securities, equivalent to 120,000 billion tomans, has been used on government expenditures and the rest has been given to corporations”. He said this would add to government debt in the coming year.   

Khan sari also noted the declining trend of real investment in the country from 2005 to 2019. According to the Head of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, investment in the country in 2020 was equal to 98,000 billion tomans, which is the lowest figure in the last 15 years. He also cited the average annual negative growth of 6% for private sector investments from 2012 to 2019.

Khansari also pointed out the growth trend of available capital in the country. According to him, in 2019, the depreciation of capital exceeded the amount of investment and for the first time in Iran, the growth of capital was negative. Khansari said Iran had also failed to attract foreign investment adding that the lowest rate of direct foreign investment in Iran was recorded in 2019. Clearly, Iran’s economy has shrunk, poverty has risen, and living standards have fallen. Investment and trade, which are the main drivers for economic growth, have reached their lowest levels, the outflow of capital from the country has increased, and interaction with the global economy has also reached a minimum.

Lack of economic stability, dual exchange rate, inflation and recession, lack of a clear picture of the current state of the economy and an ambiguous political future coupled with political instability, uncertainty in economic affairs, and an unfavorable business environment are some of the challenges that the Iranian economy faces. Current conditions have led to public discontent. Most Iranians no longer trust regime leaders and hold daily protests to express their economic grievances.

Cyrus Yaqubi is a Research Analyst and Iranian Foreign Affairs Commentator investigating the social issues and economy of the middle east countries in general and Iran in particular.

Many prisoners have been secretly executed in remote and unknown prisons that no one knows about.

While the international community is involved in combating the coronavirus pandemic, vaccination, and US elections, the Iranian regime is engaged in leveraging JCPOA, piracy, firing missiles, terrorism, bombings in neighboring countries and threatening the former US president on social media with definite revenge. The Iranian regime seeks to break the embargo on isolation by extortion and threatening the international community. Inside Iran, however, the mullahs try to prevent protests and uprising by executions, repression, and putting pressure on political activists, to delay its overthrow.

The Iranian regime set a new criminal record by executing 33 people in December 2020 and January 2021. These 33 executions were carried out in Ahvaz, Qom, Zahedan, Ardabil, Sanandaj, Karaj, Rasht, Mashhad, Meshkinshahr, Zabol, Tabriz, Yazd, and Qazvin prisons.

Also, many prisoners have been secretly executed in remote and unknown prisons that no one knows about.

Among those executed were three Baloch political prisoners, executed on January 3, 2021, in Zahedan, and three Sunni prisoners, held in Vakilabad Prison in Mashhad, who were executed on December 26, 2020. A child, who at the time of their alleged crime was only 16, was also executed in Rasht after 13 years in prison.

Hay-Negouv, a Human Rights Organization, reported that the number of people detained by government security forces in the past two weeks has risen to more than 67. According to their report, on Tuesday, January 19, 2021, four citizens were arrested in Piranshahr. One of the detainees was a 37-year-old man who was taken to an unknown location after his arrest.

They arrested some of these activists without a court order, searched their houses, and seized their personal belongings. Security forces beat several detainees during their arrests. Human rights activists in Iran emphasize in their report, “the Iranian regime’s history in such cases, following widespread detention of citizens, has raised concerns about obtaining forced confessions and pressuring these citizens.”.

Security forces also pressured the families of some of the detained citizens to get them to refrain from participating in an interview with the media about their children’s condition.

On the other hand, some human rights sources in Sistan and Balochistan, including the “Baloch Activists Campaign”, have stated that at least 10 Baloch citizens have been executed in Zahedan Central Prison in the past three weeks.

The judiciary of Sistan and Balochistan province announced the execution of three Baloch citizens in Khash and Saravan prisons on January 3, 2021.

In another event, according to the Iran Human rights monitor, Saeid Sangar, 47, one of Iran’s longest incarcerated political activists were sentenced to a further 11 months in prison in Urmia after already serving more than 20 years in prison, during which time he was subjected to 13 staged executions, for supporting the MEK!

Sanger, imprisoned since his arrest in August 2000, was interrogated and tortured in solitary confinement in Evin Prison until 2003 when he was sentenced to 18 years in prison. And now, after 20 years in prison, without being given temporary release for even a single day, the regime’s Judiciary has added another 11 months to his prison term.

In recent years, the Iranian judiciary, without regard to international pleas and campaigns, has carried out the death sentences of many imprisoned citizens, including political prisoners, and, with the appointment of Ebrahim Raessi, a member of the death Committee responsible for the massacre of 30,000 Prisoners in 1988, to the head of the judiciary, executions have gained even more momentum. Carrying out death sentences has intensified in Iran’s judiciary while Human Rights Watch in its 2021 world report described Iran as one of the “world leaders in carrying out the death penalty over the past year”, also declaring that many of those executed did not have a fair trial.

The report states: “From the beginning of 2020 to November 19 of that year, 233 people were executed in Iran, including those who had committed crimes as children.”

The Iranian regime must be held accountable by the international community for these crimes. And Iran’s human rights dossier must be referred to the UN Security Council.

Hassan Mahmoudi, is an Europe-based social analyst, researcher, independent observer, and commentator of Middle Eastern and Iranian Politics. He tweets under @hassan_mahmou1.

IRGC has been very active in producing and making movies and TV shows and has made its presence known in most of Iran’s TV channels.

Most executive institutions in Iran are somehow under the control and supervision of the Velayat-e Faqih, aka the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. However, town, and village council elections are the only vote in Iran that are held without the direct supervision of the Guardian Council.

Therefore, efforts have been made to control and monitor these elections in various ways. For example, on January 13, Ali Haddadi, a spokesman for the Iranian parliament’s internal affairs commission, said Parliament was considering a plan to employ the intelligence services of the IRGC in the approval process of town and village council candidates.

Ali Haddadi said the plan “aims to prevent councils from deviating, to monitor their performance and to form an efficient council”. By implementing this plan, the IRGC can approve or reject the qualifications of candidates before the elections without any legal impediments.

There have been several instances where town and village council members have drawn the ire of various ruling establishments because of their remarks, or by simply taking a stance on policies or getting involved in matters beyond their jurisdiction.

For example, Mehdi Hajati, a member of the Shiraz City Council, spoke out against the arrest of two Baha’i citizens and criticized officials’ actions regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. He was expelled from the council, under the pretext of “unjustified absence” from council meetings for two months and was arrested himself.

Another example is Mohammad Parham, a member of the Borujerd city council, who posted a video comparing the leaders of Iran and Finland last January. He was arrested and charged for insulting the leadership.

By implementing this new system of supervision on the election process of town and village councils, Khamenei can effectively eliminate those not affiliated with him through the IRGC.

Basij involved in all projects

Furthermore, changes are going to be made by the parliament to a law on the authority of the IRGC’s paramilitary branch, known as the “Basij”. The most important of these amendments is about changing the word “authorized” to “obligated” in the second article of the law.

According to this law, all ministries, government and public institutions, and companies, especially the ministries of Agricultural Jihad, Health, Treatment and Medical Education, Roads and Transportation, Cooperation, Energy, Labor and Social Affairs, Education, Welfare and Social Security, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Presidential Office on Deprived Areas, the Red Crescent Society, the Khomeini Relief Committee, municipalities and rural districts are “obliged, relative to the level of readiness by the Basij, to carry out part… of their relief, cultural and humanitarian activities, plans and projects with the use of Basij forces.”

Therefore, if this law is approved, the Revolutionary Guards will be involved in almost all projects throughout the country.

Movies and TV shows

Long before this, the Revolutionary Guards had established their presence and influence in Iran’s cultural affairs as a security and intelligence institution for more control and to advance Khamenei’s intentions. For this reason, the IRGC created a television network called “Ofogh Network.”

This network is entirely independent from the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, a state-controlled media corporation which holds a monopoly of domestic radio and television services in Iran.

The IRGC affiliated Owj Arts and Media Organization oversees the network’s content. In recent years, the IRGC has been very active in producing and making movies and TV shows and has made its presence known in most of Iran’s TV channels. They often broadcast their own narratives on domestic and international contemporary history and current affairs.

These programs are entirely financed and technically supported by the IRGC.

COVID-19

To extend its influence, the IRGC got itself involved in so-called Coronavirus “preventive” measures. These measures ranged from symbolically disinfecting streets with pure water, to showcasing a ludicrous “coronavirus detector” in addition to claiming to have developed a COVID-19 vaccine.

The IRGC’s “Coronavirus Detector-110″ was unveiled by the IRGC’s Commander in Chief, Hossein Salami, in the initial phases of the COVID-19 outbreak. The detector was later revealed to be the same device sold to Iraq as a fake “bomb detector” by a British company which cost the Iraqi government millions of dollars.

Three months ago, Salami once again claimed to have found a very effective solution to fight the virus. On November 10, 2020, he announced that about 54,000 Basij bases were to “attack” areas where the coronavirus had taken up residence and go door to door.

Salami claimed that this operation was intended to separate the infected from the non-infected and to refer the infected to treatment centers. Of course, this was nothing but another attempt at searching people’s homes and had nothing to do with countering COVID-19.

This plan was so ridiculous and ineffective that it was abruptly abandoned, and no further mention of it has been heard since.

In another comical statement, after the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the IRGC claimed that Fakhrizadeh, known as the “Father of Iran’s missile industry” and the “mind behind the nuclear industry”, was actually in the process of developing a coronavirus vaccine before his death.

Economy

Of course, the most essential intervention of the IRGC are its prominent footsteps in Iran’s economy through the Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters, which has been the principal recipient of government contracts in most construction, road building and oil projects.

The Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters has gradually turned the government’s executive branch into one of its major debtors. Now, Khatam-al Anbiya is considering confiscating several government properties that have been put up for sale to fund the government’s budget.

“Young Hezbollah government” and Iran’s 2021 elections

The volatility and hidden potential of widespread protests in Iran is very much the most significant concern of Khamenei. The rifts and conflicts of opinions, corruption and mismanagement within different government branches could trigger a regime-changing movement within Iran.

In an effort to prevent the new potential wave of protests, Khamenei is trying to unify the state for maximum control.

Many believe that the appointment of former IRGC commander Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, as Parliament Speaker could be considered a decision in this direction.

In a recent speech, Khamenei once again called for the establishment of a “young Hezbollah government” for the upcoming presidential election in June 2021.

He also mentioned that by young, he meant someone in the lines of dead Quds Commander Qasem Soleimani.

IRGC commanders are taking advantage of Khamenei’s remarks by gradually controlling all reigns of power and readying themselves for a military government that will quash all dissent.

However, as history has shown, when a nation stands up, no military government or dictatorship can stop their determination and desire for change.

This is an undeniable fact, given the widespread public dissatisfaction with Khamenei’s religious rule.

Cyrus Yaqubi is a Research Analyst and Iranian Foreign Affairs Commentator investigating the social issues and economy of the middle east countries in general and Iran in particular.