People of Iran have one unique message, “We will no longer vote!” and “our vote is the overthrow of the regime”

While not only all Iranians but also all world’s political pundits believe that the presidential election in Iran, which is scheduled to take place on June 18, is nothing more than a show and everything has been decided in advance, so that, even some factions and regime’s leaders like the former president Mahmood Ahmedinejad has announced that he will not take part in the show. 

The hollow words and promises of the seven people who have passed the filter of the Guardian Council to heat up the show and attract people’s attention to the election are so ridiculous that have been taken as jokes by the people in Iran .

The promises made by these people are so unrealistic and false that if someone does not know these people and their showmanship, may be fooled by such rhetoric and sweet talks. But the reality is that all seven of them have been part of the same corrupt and oppressive regime and share the blame for the current horrible state of living and people’s misery in Iran. 

These candidates have been instrumental in drawing more than 80% of the people of Iran under the poverty line and have created an economic downfall that has forced more than 35% of the city dwellers to move to the outskirts due to inability to pay the rent, living in shanty towns that do not have the minimum necessary facilities for a family.

These candidates are part of the same system that has created such high inflation that many of the population have not been able to taste meat and fruit for a long time and have been forced to sell their organs such as kidneys, corneas, and even their hearts for their family’s livelihood. The system is so corrupt that the youths of Iran, instead of going to school, have to look inside dumpsters in search of food and clothing or have become street vendors, selling gums, cigarettes, polishing shoes, etc. to make their ends meet.

This is a regime that even selling children due to poverty is not an uncommon occurrence there. 

Recently, the price of bread, the most basic source of food, has increased again by 50%, forcing many to pay for their purchases by installments. 

Situation is so bad that candidates instead of presenting important major economic programs and plans for the country just give empty promises geared towards attracting this major deprived segment of population to vote.

But a glance at the background of these seven candidates demonstrates their true natures.

For example, Ibrahim Raessi, who will most likely be the winner of this show, as deputy prosecutor and prosecutor was handing death sentences to the dissidents for many years. He was one of the members of the death committee responsible for the 1988 massacre of thousands of Mojahedin Khalq (MEK) members, most of whom were young people under the age of 25.

In a leaked audio tape, Ayatollah Mohammad Hossein Montazeri, Khomeini’s successor, told Raessi that “history will name you as criminals because of these killings and crimes”. (Of course, because of his opposition to these executions, Montazeri was fired shortly after by Khomeini). 

After that, Raessi continued his role in oppressing people and looting their property for many years with different titles such as the head of Astan Quds Razavi in Khorsan province and finally as the head of the judiciary. Raessi’s crimes are so obvious that 4 years ago, during the presidential race, Hassan Rouhani in one of his election speeches in city of Hamedan told him that “during these years, you have done nothing for the people but issuing death and imprisonment sentences”.

But Raessi who seems to think that people have forgotten these facts now promises freedom of expression, transparency, and honesty with the people, and while he knows nothing about economics, and in a situation where inflation is now over 50% and the middle class has been eliminated, promises single-digit inflation in the first year.

Or Mohsen Rezaei, who was one of Khomeini’s personal bodyguards in the beginning of the revolution and was appointed as commander of IRGC by Khomeini in 1981 and worked in this position for 16 years, participating in the repression of the Iranian people, especially in Kurdistan province. During the eight years of the war with Iraq, he used the tactics of attacking with human waves and sending schoolchildren as disposable soldiers to clear minefields, killing tens of thousands of young Iranians youth in the war. 

After the Iran-Iraq war Khamenei appointed him as the secretary of the Expediency Discernment Council. For more than two decades, he has participated in all important decisions and now, he promises to pay 450,000 Tomans a month to forty million low-income people.

His promise has made people laugh! Because presently, the regime is not even able to pay the monthly salaries of its employees, and to raise money for its current budget, it resorts to deceiving people in various ways, such as dragging them to the stock market and then devaluing stocks or establishing empty banks and financial institutions such as Caspian, Iranians, Afzal Toos and Arman Vahdat — are a few of such fake institutions. After attracting people’s capital, most of these institutions have gone bankrupt and have practically caused the loss of people’s money and life’s earnings.

Thousands of those who have lost their investments have been staging daily and weekly public gatherings and demonstrations demanding the return of their money and accountability for the last two years. 

Mohsen Rezaei who was one the main culprits in oppressing Iranians, now promises to remove censorship and filtering of the Internet.

The rest of the seven candidates possess the same corrupt credentials as these two. That is why the majority of the Iranian people have announced that they will not participate in this election. Via various rallies and  social media campaigns, the people of Iran have one unique message, “We will no longer vote!” and “our vote is the overthrow of the regime”. The situation is so critical that many analysts believe that this will probably be the last so called election in Iran. This understanding is echoed by regime’s authorities, including Ahmadinejad, who warned in their speeches, indicating that a change like the one in 1979 will occur.

Cyrus Yaqubi is a Research Analyst and Iranian Foreign Affairs Commentator investigating the social issues and economy of the middle east countries in general and Iran in particular.

People of Iran clearly understand that the misery and the absurd level of poverty is caused by the government…

While more than 80% of Iranians live below the poverty line and have not tasted meat or fruit for many months, are now facing a 50% increase in the price of bread. 

According to some local reports, this has forced some people to even  pay for their bread in installments. A few days ago, the main staple of poor people quietly became 50% more expensive, and soon after, the official news of this price increase was announced in the press and media.

Of course, this price increase does not end with just bread, and in recent days, news of a 35% increase in the price of cooking oil, 72% of the price of sugar, 30% of intercity bus tickets, 35% of cab fares, 30% increase in subway tickets and many other basic items of life were published throughout local Iranian publications and websites.

According to the Statistics Center of Iran, the point-to-point inflation rate has now reached more than 48%. This rate is 11 times more than what is in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, the salary increase for next year is set at only 26%.
The cost of rent has reached such a level that according to Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf (Speaker of Parliament), that 35% of the population of Iran’s metropolises have been driven to the peripheries due to inability to pay rent. They are living in sheds that do not have the minimum requirements of ordinary residential units. 

The fact is that these inconceivable high prices are rooted in the widespread corruption of the regime’s system. This corruption has taken place under the supervision of Khamenei, his son Mojtaba and the Revolutionary Guards.

Their collective capital is estimated to be more than $100 billion. Furthermore, the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) have taken control of most of the country’s capital in all areas of the economy. 

The regime’s incompetency, never-ending greed and mismanagement have resulted in the closure of many manufacturing plants and higher. Out of control importation of goods and selling them in the local markets for exponential profits, embezzlement, colossal briberies and the weakening of the local economy have brought misery and discontent to the people of Iran. The local manufacturing plants are no longer capable of competing with goods imported by the government and therefore forced to close down.

The astronomical theft and corruption of the Iranian regime’s affiliates are beyond belief. At times, the tip of the iceberg of such corruption is revealed by different factions of the regime to discredit the other faction and legitimize themselves.

Just recently, the news about the disappearance of 10% of last year’s production of Iranian steel, which amounts to 3 million tons, was published by various publications and websites. The amount of steel lost has a global value of more than 1.2 billions dollars.

The people of Iran clearly understand that the misery and the absurd level of poverty is caused by the government and its oppressive policies. Iranians have come to this realization that the only solution to any improvement in their lives is regime change. They expressed this desire on many occasions by chanting in demonstrations in Tehran and other cities.

To combat the legitimate desire for “regime change” of the people of Iran, Khamenei and his entourage have intensified their repressive measures and forcing the people to acquiesce with the status quo.

In this quest, of course, some people become disappointed and bow to pressures of the regime and instead of standing up for their rights, they either commit suicide or try to get rid of this situation by turning to drugs. Some even kill their children first and then commit suicide.

The last of these examples, which are not rare, took place on May 20, 2021 in the city of Esfarayen, when a mother first killed her 8-year-old and 2-month-old children and then committed suicide. Another unfortunate event was the self-immolation of a young man on May 16 in Tehran, who first locked himself on a park bench so that could not be saved. He then set himself on fire by pouring gasoline on himself, as a result of which he died tragically. All this is due to the poverty and despair that has spread in society. 

According to estimates made last year, 8% of the population over the age of 15 in Iran, which amounts to more than 4.4 million people, are addicted to drugs.
However, on the much brighter side, the majority of the people oppose the current situation and show their opposition to this government by holding mass rallies and protests, including protests by teachers, workers, truck drivers, retirees and farmers, that take place almost daily in all cities of Iran. 

Actually, it seems they are waiting for another situation like what happened in November 2019 to vent their anger and end this government with another uprising. In that year, Khamenei was able to suppress a popular uprising by killing 1,500 people and arresting 12,000.

But according to recent remarks by former President Ahmadinejad, repressing the next uprising will not be so easy as there is a large wave of discontent that will drown out the entire regime as Iranians have nothing left to lose.

With current chants such as “we have heard enough lies, we will not vote anymore” or “Our vote is overthrow” is indicative of this apprehension towards the forthcoming sham elections. The people of Iran only recognize one vote and that is a vote for regime change.

Cyrus Yaqubi is a Research Analyst and Iranian Foreign Affairs Commentator investigating the social issues and economy of the middle east countries in general and Iran in particular.

Despite warnings by experts, year after year the situation has worsened as water supplies have been shrinking and the government has failed to come up with a serious water-management solution.

During the past two years, while officials have been constantly talking about the impact of United States sanctions on the country’s economy and the adverse effect of the coronavirus pandemic on people’s livelihoods, many newspapers and comments by experts warned about the impact of drought and the excessive use of groundwater by thousands of illegal wells. In August 2018, the head of Iran’s environmental agency, Issa Kalantari warned that 70 percent of the population is facing serious water shortage.

Coupled with water scarcity is feared power cuts as the weather gets warm and air conditions swing into action. In fact, part of the electricity shortage is due to drought and lack of hydroelectric power. Roughly, 25 percent of power generation relies on dams that are less than half-full this year. Officials said this week that the country has received 50 percent less rain this winter and spring.

During the past week, many have been complaining about long hours of power cuts in Tehran and other cities. Teachers have been complaining that their online classes and exams have been affected by the blackouts.

At the same time many others including filmmaker Manijeh Hekmat complained that their aircon systems and refrigerators have broken as result of recurring power cuts.

Several social media users in Iran have also pointed out that the blackouts dangerously affect patients connected to ventilators and oxygen machines.

Since 2020, when it was first revealed that some entities including the Revolutionary Guards and their Chinese partners were using about ten percent of the energy Iran generated for cryptocurrency mining, complaints took another form and at once turned into opposition with the government and its secretive deals with China.

This comes while, media reports during the past days have indicated that Iran is using Bitcoin farms and cryptocurrency farming to circumvent US sanctions.

A recent Reuters report said that around 4.5% of all bitcoin mining in the world takes place in Iran “allowing the country to earn hundreds of millions of dollars in cryptocurrencies that can be used to buy imports and lessen the impact of sanctions.”

According to the economic website Tejarat News, Tehran needs $30 billion and 10 years to leave behind the water crisis. This translates into 500 million barrels of oil at the rate of $60 per barrel. However, currently, as a result of US sanctions, Iran cannot sell that quantity of oil and even if it does, it cannot repatriate the money.

As the summer approaches, Iran’s hydro-electric power plants go off the grid one by one causing major blackouts and many in high rise buildings cannot get water. This comes on top of high inflation and the impact of the pandemic.

While officials such as Ardakanian attribute the shortage to lack of precipitation this year, which has reduced electricity supply by 3,000 megawatts, Iranians who find it difficult to trust officials are inclined to believe that it is greedy Bitcoin farming that is leaving homes in darkness.

Mismanagement of water resources and engineering endeavors have been once again highlighted during the past week as new pictures show a dried out Karoun river in Khouzestan. The river used to irrigate tens of thousands of farmlands in southwestern Iran until the past decade, but salination as a result of dam building at the wrong place has ruined the river and a left a magnificent bridge that leads to nowhere.

It is clear that the people no longer accept the promises of regime leaders.

The vast majority of Iranians are struggling with poverty, unemployment and skyrocketing prices, with more than 60 million of Iran’s 82 million population living below the poverty line, and millions left to fend for themselves for their most basic necessities of life. The value of Iran’s currency has decreased 3,500 times compared to its value before the 1979 revolution.

In 2020, Iran’s currency became the least valuable in the world, after Venezuela. Social uprisings, rallies, and protests by the people of Iran regarding their poor living conditions and lack of civil liberties are daily occurrences throughout the country. Meanwhile, the Iranian regime has increased all its repressive measures, such as arbitrary arrests, cracking down on rallies and executions, to prevent another nationwide protest similar to the one in November 2019.

Just recently, on 23 February, the regime’s Revolutionary Guards killed dozens of Baluch people in the city of Saravan. Considering the above, it can be said that the Iranian society is very much ready for an overwhelming change. Iran’s 11th presidential election since the anti-monarchical revolution of 1979 is fast approaching, for which the people’s participation is of crucial importance to the regime.

In a recent speech, Khamenei referred to the presidential elections as a cure for all Iran’s social and economic problems and promised that the country’s problems would be solved by installing a young hardline government. In a meeting on 21 February with provincial governors of Iran, including the governor of the northwestern province of Ardabil, Iran’s Interior Minister, Rahmani Fazli said the credibility and prestige of the regime depended on the upcoming elections. Furthermore, most Friday prayer sermons are calling for a large outcome for elections. By showcasing the people’s participation in the so-called elections, the regime wants to legitimize its dictatorship.

After years of dictatorship by the Shah, in 1979 the people of Iran decisively rose up, brought the Shah’s monarchy to an end and hoped for a better future. But instead, they had to face another dictatorship, much more brutal than before.

Unlike the Shah, the clerical regime does actually hold presidential elections every four years, to give itself an air of democracy and to mimic democratic countries around the world. In the end, a president is elected. But what really goes on? Do the people really elect the president, and does he possess any real authority and autonomy?

In the last 42 years, from the very first elections, it became clear that in practice the person who has the real power and control of Iran’s government is the Supreme Leader and those affiliated with him. In Iran, elections are carried out under the close supervision of the Supreme Leader. The candidates must be approved by a body called the Guardian Council, affiliated with the Supreme Leader. That means only those candidates who are completely dedicated to the Supreme Leader and his leadership and policies are going to be approved by the Guardian Council.

The Guardian Council consists of 12 members, six of whom are “Faqih” and are directly elected by the Supreme Leader. The other six “jurists” are nominated by the head of the Judiciary, who the Supreme Leader appoints. This means that, in fact, all 12 members of the Guardian Council are directly or indirectly appointed by the Supreme Leader in order to engineer his wishes in the presidential elections and elect the candidates he wants from the ballot box. In this way, even those who were once part of this government’s leadership but refused to surrender to the Supreme Leader due to their desire for power, have been disqualified and no longer allowed to participate in the elections.

As a prime example, Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was himself the head of government, serving two terms as president and two terms as speaker, was disqualified from running in the 2013 elections due to a dispute with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Similarly, Ahmadinejad, who was president for two terms, was not allowed to run again in the 2017 elections. These, and others who were also disqualified, displayed their disagreements with the Supreme Leader in various ways. The conflict was always about receiving a share of the power. Those individuals who did not comply with the Supreme Leader were axed from their candidacy in the upcoming elections.

But, since the president and his government take charge of controlling the country’s finances, there is always competition and war between different factions of the regime, even though they are all in fact affiliated with the Supreme Leader.

Each side wants to have a firmer grip on the country’s wealth and wants to gain the leverage on obtaining more sources of wealth. The candidates themselves often accuse each other of looting, theft, and corruption, with thefts often amounting to several hundred million dollars. Once the elections are over, the same people who were accusing each other of theft and corruption come together, form the government, and it seems they have by then reached a deal to control various institutions after the elections by dividing power among themselves.

For example, there were several final candidates in the previous election, including former President Rouhani, Qalibaf, former Parliament Speaker and Raeisi, Chief Justice. In one of the debates, Qalibaf’s theft of several hundred million dollars during his tenure in Tehran’s municipality was revealed and mentioned, while Raeisi was revealed to have been one of the main perpetrators of the massacre of political prisoners in 1988.

Rouhani pointed to him and said he has done nothing but sentence people to death, imprisonment, and torture during these years. Ironically enough, after the election, Qalibaf was elected as speaker of Iran’s parliament and Raeisi was selected as head of the judiciary by Khamenei. That is, the three main branches of power were divided between these people, and the only ones who did not benefit from the elections were the people of Iran.

The regime’s situation has deteriorated so much that there are no political figures remaining in any of the factions of the regime whose corruption and grand thefts have not been exposed. So, during these years, it has been proven to the Iranian people that the presidential election is nothing more than a show and the people’s votes do not count. Election winners are all predetermined and engineered.

None of the so-called elected individuals are going to take any step towards the welfare of the people. This system does not allow for a fair election and representation. For example, women, who make up half of the country’s population, are not allowed to run for president. Despite the regime’s efforts and their false promises and propaganda, every election has witnessed lower participation, and many people have boycotted altogether.

According to recent polls taken by regime affiliated media, which usually differ greatly from reality by being several times higher than the actual number, the turnout in the upcoming elections is predicted to be 20%. It is clear that the people no longer accept the promises of regime leaders. The overwhelming majority of the people want regime change and the establishment of a secular democratic government where elections are free and democratic.

Cyrus Yaqubi is a Research Analyst and Iranian Foreign Affairs Commentator investigating the social issues and economy of the middle east countries in general and Iran in particular.