Mohammad Jafar Asadi, a senior figure in Iran’s military central command, said evidence showed that Washington was not committed to its promises or agreements, according to remarks published by Iran’s Fars news agency.“A renewed conflict between Iran and the United States is likely,” Asadi said, adding that previous developments had demonstrated that the United States could not be trusted to uphold commitments.

His comments came hours after President Donald Trump said he was dissatisfied with a new Iranian negotiating proposal delivered through mediator Pakistan on Thursday.“At this moment I’m not satisfied with what they’re offering,” Trump told reporters, blaming delays in diplomacy on what he described as “tremendous discord” inside Iran’s leadership.

“Do we want to go and just blast the hell out of them and finish them forever or do we want to try and make a deal?” Trump said, adding that he would prefer to avoid military escalation “on a human basis.”The war, launched by the United States and Israel in late February, has been paused since April 8 after a ceasefire took hold following weeks of strikes across the region.

One round of peace talks in Pakistan failed to produce a breakthrough.Iran’s judiciary chief, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, said on Friday that Tehran had never avoided negotiations but would not accept peace terms imposed by outside powers.

The White House has not disclosed details of the latest Iranian proposal. Axios reported that U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff had proposed amendments that would return Iran’s nuclear program to the center of negotiations, including demands that Tehran not move enriched uranium from bombed facilities or restart activity there during talks.

News of the proposal briefly pushed global oil prices down by nearly 5%, though prices remain significantly above pre-war levels because of continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes.Iran has maintained effective control over the strait since the conflict began, severely disrupting flows of oil, gas and fertilizer exports, while the United States has responded with a blockade targeting Iranian ports.

Washington said late Friday it had approved major arms sales to regional allies, including a $4 billion Patriot missile deal with Qatar and nearly $1 billion in precision weapons systems for Israel.In Washington, lawmakers are also debating whether Trump violated the legal deadline for seeking congressional approval for the military campaign.

Administration officials argue that the ceasefire paused the 60-day clock requiring congressional authorization, while opposition Democrats dispute that interpretation.Trump told congressional leaders that “there has been no exchange of fire between United States Forces and Iran since April 7” and said hostilities had effectively “terminated.”Inside Iran, the economic impact of the war continues to deepen.

New U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian currency firms and disruptions to trade have worsened inflation, which has reportedly surged above 50%.“For many people, paying rent and even buying food has become difficult,” one Tehran resident said, reflecting growing public anxiety over the prolonged crisis.Supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei on Friday urged business owners to avoid layoffs and called for what he described as “economic and cultural jihad” in response to mounting economic pressure and external threats.

Even before the latest hostilities, analysts described Iran’s economy as deeply fragile, weighed down by sanctions, energy imbalances, inflation and declining exports. The impact of renewed strikes and the effective closure of Hormuz a critical artery for global energy shipments has sharply intensified those pressures.

The blockade threatens more than 90% of Iran’s annual trade, estimated at over $100 billion, according to analysts, cutting off vital oil exports that account for roughly 80% of government revenue. Estimates cited by experts suggest losses of around $435 million per day, potentially exceeding $13 billion monthly.

Energy infrastructure constraints are compounding the crisis. With limited storage capacity and continued production, Iran risks being forced to halt oil output within weeks, raising the possibility of long-term damage to oil fields and a permanent reduction in production capacity.

On the domestic front, economic indicators point to severe distress. The Iranian rial has sharply depreciated, while food inflation has surged into triple digits, eroding purchasing power and fueling social discontent.

Shortages of energy have also disrupted key industries such as steel, cement and petrochemicals.The blockade’s effects are further magnified by limited alternative trade routes. Infrastructure outside the Gulf, including overland corridors and non-Hormuz ports, can handle only a fraction of normal throughput, leaving Iran with few options to offset lost maritime access.

Internal divisions are also emerging over the management of foreign currency revenues and economic policy, with some officials warning that significant portions of export earnings are not reaching state coffers.

Former Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has called for compromise, urging Tehran to consider limiting its nuclear program and reopening Hormuz in exchange for sanctions relief to prevent further economic deterioration.Analysts say the government’s response is driven less by economic logic than by strategic considerations.

Sanam Vakil of Chatham House said the conflict is viewed by Iran’s leadership as existential, limiting the likelihood of policy shifts despite economic strain.The longer-term outlook remains uncertain.

Researchers at Royal United Services Institute warn that postwar recovery could be hampered by damaged infrastructure, reduced access to regional financial networks and strained ties with Gulf partners, particularly the United Arab Emirates, a key trade hub for Iran.

With reconstruction costs expected to be substantial and trade channels constrained, the economic consequences of the conflict may prove more enduring than the military phase itself.

The demonstrations, driven largely by rising prices and currency pressures, reflect deep economic anxieties among ordinary citizens who are calling for relief, accountability, and improved living standards.

U.S. President Donald Trump issued a warning cautioning against the use of force on demonstrators, framing his remarks as support for civilian safety and the principle of protecting lives during periods of unrest.

While his language was forceful, the message underscored global concern about avoiding bloodshed and encouraging restraint as tensions rise during a sensitive domestic moment for Iran.

Iranian officials rejected any suggestion of foreign interference, emphasizing sovereignty and warning that external pressure could widen regional instability if not carefully managed.

At the same time, authorities within Iran signaled firmness toward unlawful violence, while also acknowledging the seriousness of economic grievances expressed by segments of the population.

Reports from various provinces indicate that protests have spread beyond isolated areas, highlighting the nationwide impact of inflation and currency depreciation on households and small businesses.

Despite clashes reported in some locations, officials stressed the importance of restoring calm and preventing escalation while investigations continue into incidents that resulted in loss of life.

Human rights groups and local media have cited multiple fatalities and arrests, drawing international attention and prompting renewed calls for transparency and accountability.

Medical services and emergency responders have remained active in affected areas, reflecting efforts to manage the situation and protect public safety amid heightened tensions.

Iran’s leadership has a long history of navigating internal unrest, and analysts note that experience, combined with reform efforts, could shape how the current situation evolves.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has adopted a notably conciliatory tone, publicly acknowledging that economic mismanagement and governance gaps have contributed to public dissatisfaction.

His remarks emphasizing responsibility and dialogue were widely seen as an effort to rebuild trust and open channels of communication with concerned citizens.

The government’s economic reform agenda, including attempts to liberalize certain markets, aims to address long-term structural challenges, even as short-term impacts have proven difficult.

A sharp decline in the rial has intensified inflationary pressures, affecting food prices, housing costs, and basic services, and amplifying frustration among working families.

International observers note that economic recovery will require a combination of domestic reforms and eased external pressures to stabilize markets and restore confidence.

U.S. sanctions remain a central factor shaping Iran’s economic environment, with their impact felt across trade, investment, and currency stability.

Regional dynamics also influence the situation, as Iran’s relationships with neighboring countries and allied groups continue to shape broader Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Despite sharp rhetoric, diplomatic channels remain active, and many global actors continue to stress the value of dialogue over confrontation in resolving disputes.

Analysts suggest that measured responses, economic relief efforts, and inclusive policymaking could help de-escalate tensions and support long-term stability.

As events continue to unfold, the focus for many inside and outside Iran remains on protecting lives, addressing economic hardship, and encouraging peaceful solutions.

The current moment is widely viewed as a test of leadership, resilience, and the ability of institutions to respond constructively to public concerns.

Amid uncertainty, there is cautious optimism that acknowledgment of internal challenges and international engagement can open space for reform and recovery.

At least 80% of the country’s problems are due to inefficiency and corruption of officials.

During the forty years since the anti-monarchy revolution, Iran has earned nearly $ 1,377 billion in oil sales, of which about 

$ 700 billion was earned during Ahmadinejad’s presidency. However, when Ahmadinejad’s eight-year term ended, he left nothing but a ruined and bankrupt economy.  

Because in addition to the theft and looting of Iranian nation’s assets by those around him and the corrupt ministers of his cabinet, he had spent the country’s income to the Revolutionary Guards, internal repression apparatus, exporting terrorism abroad, and Iran’s missile and nuclear programs. . The people of Iran benefited absolutely nothing from the windfall during the Ahmadinejad era. 

After his departure and the arrival of Rouhani, the situation worsened so much that during Rouhani’s term, the rate of theft and astronomical looting of the country’s assets broke a record. Some of these huge thefts that were exposed during the factional disputes revealed their dimensions.

For example, it was revealed that Ali Rastegar Sorkheh, who was the CEO of Sepah Bank, with the help of Hossein Fereydoun, the brother of President Hassan Rouhani embezzled more than 3,700 billion tomans (Iran’s currency) from this bank. In another case, two women affiliated with Rouhani’s brother embezzled 600 billion tomans and left Iran. The above are just two embezzle cases among tens and hundreds.

Rouhani, being part of the circle of corruption, instead of trying to stop these corruptions, tried his best to either ignore them or justify them through lies and deceiving. Time after time, he promised a better future for the people of Iran and delivered hollow promises in almost all his speeches, which were too many.  

But now, after eight years in power, the situation in Iran is so devastating that he himself cannot hide it, but now he blames the failure of his government on President Trump and US sanctions.  

Meanwhile, according to a regime official, at least 80% of the country’s problems are due to inefficiency and corruption of officials and have nothing to do with the sanctions.

The situation in Iran is so bad that according to experts, at no point in the last 42 years, even during the eight-year Iran-Iraq war has the situation in Iran been so critical, and now that Raisi who is more illiterate than Rouhani, and knows nothing about management or economy is appointed as president, you could imagine what will happen.

According to a regime’s expert, the social and economic problems Raisi will be facing are like a minefield. Every step, in any direction, could end up on top of a mine, leading to explosions and the collapse of the regime.

This expert has defined some important characters of this minefield as follows:

1- The budget deficit of 350,000 billion tomans for this year, that we are midway through. Due to the continuation of US sanctions, including oil exports, which is Iran’s main source of income, the budget deficit will be impossible to cover in the short term. The state of Iran’s economy is so bad that the regime is experiencing difficulties with government employees and workers and as usual will print banknotes without backing. This growth in liquidity, which has been around 40% over the past four years, will intensify to unprecedented inflation, which is now above 50% and for some essential items close to 80%. It has caused more than 60% of the country’s population to fall below the poverty line and the middle class to disappear. High prices of almost everything has been instrumental in forcing more than 38 million people to move to the outskirts of cities and live in shantytowns that lack basic facilities.

2- Lack of transparency of Iran’s banking system is another problem that has intensified significantly during the eight years of Rouhani’s term and the government’s debt to pension funds has grown significantly. Rouhani’s government has continuously withdrawn money from these funds to cover its expenses, which resulted in increasing government debt and further devaluation of Iran’s national currency. In 2020, the Iranian currency was the second weakest circulating currency, only behind the Venezuelan Bolivar, and its value has depreciated by more than 3,500 times compared to the beginning of the revolution. According to the head of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, the resilience of Iran’s economy now ranks 128th out of 130 countries. On the other hand, Iranian society has witnessed a continuous rise in class differences to an incredible extent over the past eight years.

In a government that claims to be the government of the oppressed, the vast majority of people live below the poverty line, on the other hand, according to Forbes magazine, despite the continuation of sanctions and the Covid 19 pandemic, that has hit the global economy hard, in Iran, 250,000 people live with an income of more than one million dollars a year. Thus, Iran ranks fourteenth country in the world in terms of the number of millionaires and ranks first in the Middle East.  

This level of wealth is rooted in bribery and corruption that seems to be surgically attached to this regime and has become its fabric. Meanwhile, as mentioned before about 60 percent of Iranians live below the “official poverty line” and about 30 percent below the “absolute poverty line.” In fact, in Iran today there is a very small class of “super-rich” associated with the regime and a very large class of “absolutely poor”, who are ordinary people. 

Clearly, this situation can no longer be sustained, and the patience of the disadvantaged people who have faced poverty, unemployment, Covid-19, droughts, continuous power outages, and a host of other social and economic problems are being tested every hour of every day.  

Right now Iranian people are controlled only with violent repression by the security forces. But imminently Iranian society will erupt like a volcano, as in the November 2019 uprising due to the increase in gasoline prices, that we saw a prelude to. This has happened many times in history, and Iran and the ruling religious dictatorship are no exception. Many experts believe that Raisi will not see the end of his four-year presidency.

Cyrus Yaqubi is a Research Analyst and Iranian Foreign Affairs Commentator investigating the social issues and economy of the middle east countries in general and Iran in particular.