International crude prices have climbed above $100 per barrel following disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route that accounts for about 40% of India’s crude imports, after military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran late last month.

Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said the government had absorbed a significant fiscal burden to offset losses incurred by oil marketing companies, estimating under-recoveries of about 24 rupees per litre on petrol and 30 rupees per litre on diesel at current global prices.

Economist Madhavi Arora of Emkay Global estimated the annualised fiscal impact of the duty cuts at around 1.55 trillion rupees, noting that the measures would cover roughly 30% to 40% of annual losses faced by fuel retailers.India’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield rose 7 basis points to 6.95%, its highest level in 20 months, reflecting concerns over increased borrowing and fiscal strain

.Shares of state-run refiners, including Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited, rose more than 4% at the open before trimming gains later in the session.

Although India formally deregulated fuel pricing, state-owned oil marketing companies which dominate about 90% of the retail market often delay passing on higher crude costs to consumers during periods of volatility.

The latest measures highlight the government’s reliance on tax adjustments and export levies to manage domestic fuel prices and inflationary pressures during global energy shocks.

The head of the Bank for International Settlements says fast-growing hedge fund leverage in government bond markets poses emerging risks for financial stability as global debt levels continue to rise.

The Bank for International Settlements has issued a new warning about the growing use of highly leveraged hedge fund strategies in government bond markets, saying the trend could amplify volatility at a time when public debt across advanced economies is expanding at an unprecedented pace.

The organisation’s new General Manager, Pablo Hernández de Cos, highlighted the increasing involvement of non-bank financial institutions in sovereign debt trading and said their activities require close attention from regulators worldwide.

Speaking at the London School of Economics, he explained that hedge funds are taking on substantial leverage to execute “relative value” strategies that depend on exploiting small pricing gaps between government bonds and related futures contracts.

These trades have grown significantly in major economies, particularly in markets like U.S. Treasuries, where sudden stress events in recent years exposed vulnerabilities in the system.

The concern stems from the way many hedge funds are accessing leverage through bilateral repurchase agreements that allow them to borrow against government bonds with no haircut applied, leaving lenders with little protection.

He noted that a large share of dollar-denominated and euro-denominated repo agreements used by hedge funds now involve zero-haircut terms, enabling leverage to accumulate with minimal constraints.

This structure, he warned, creates conditions under which small market disruptions can rapidly translate into significant instability, especially when firms face margin calls or struggle to unwind positions quickly during turbulent periods.

Past episodes, including sudden dislocations in U.S. Treasury markets, have shown how leveraged trades can intensify volatility and spread stress more widely across the financial system.

The BIS chief said these risks are magnified by the long-term trend of rising government debt, which is expected to continue due to demographic pressures, higher defence spending, and limited progress on fiscal consolidation.

Projections indicate the debt-to-GDP ratio of advanced economies could climb to 170% by 2050 unless substantial adjustments are made, increasing the importance of ensuring stability in government bond markets.

He emphasised that addressing the issue of non-bank leverage should now be considered a key policy priority for central banks and regulators, given the growing share of sovereign debt held or intermediated by institutions outside the traditional banking sector.

The interaction between high debt levels and leveraged market plays, he said, represents a structural challenge that will require careful monitoring and targeted regulatory tools.

Among potential measures, he pointed to the wider adoption of central clearing in government bond trading, a move that would create more transparent and consistent risk management standards across market participants.

Central clearing, he explained, could help reduce uneven leverage practices while improving oversight of exposures that currently sit within bilateral arrangements.

He also highlighted the introduction of minimum haircuts on government bonds used as collateral as another effective tool to limit unchecked leverage in repo markets.

By requiring a small discount on collateral value, authorities could reduce the extent to which hedge funds can borrow against bonds without facing meaningful constraints on their positions.

He stressed that such measures would need to be calibrated carefully to avoid disrupting market functioning while still providing an important buffer against excessive leverage.

Targeting specific segments where risks are most concentrated, he said, would allow regulators to strengthen stability without imposing unnecessary restrictions on broader market activity.

Beyond leverage management, he reiterated that central bank swap lines remain a crucial mechanism for preventing liquidity crises in global financial markets, especially during periods of heightened stress.

These arrangements, which allow central banks to exchange currencies and provide liquidity support, have proven essential in past episodes of market turmoil.

He also underscored that maintaining control of inflation remains vital for supporting debt sustainability because stable prices help keep borrowing costs lower and reduce risk premiums on government debt.

At the same time, he said that preserving central bank independence is more important than ever in an environment where sovereign creditworthiness is facing growing pressure.

The BIS message reflects a broader shift among global policymakers as they adapt to a financial landscape where non-bank institutions play an increasingly central role in shaping market behaviour.

For regulators, the challenge will be to strengthen oversight of leveraged activities while ensuring that sovereign debt markets continue to operate smoothly and efficiently.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack emphasizes the Fed’s careful balancing of inflation control and economic stability, highlighting optimism about long-term economic growth and resilience.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack recently shared her views on the U.S. economy, expressing cautious optimism as the Federal Reserve continues its efforts to maintain price stability while supporting employment.

Speaking at an event hosted by the Economic Club of New York, Hammack acknowledged that while inflation remains a challenge, the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the situation and maintaining policies designed to support sustained economic growth.

Hammack noted that the current stance of monetary policy is close to a neutral point — a level that neither accelerates nor restricts economic activity.

She stated that while there are still some pressures on prices, the U.S. job market continues to demonstrate strength and adaptability, a sign that the broader economy remains resilient despite recent inflationary trends.

According to Hammack, the Federal Reserve’s policy approach aims to balance multiple objectives: keeping inflation in check, promoting employment, and ensuring stable financial conditions.

She highlighted that the Fed’s decisions are guided by data, collaboration, and long-term economic sustainability. This measured approach reflects the institution’s commitment to maintaining the health and confidence of the American economy.

Hammack emphasized that while inflation has been a key concern for policymakers, there are encouraging signs of progress as supply chain pressures ease and consumer confidence stabilizes.

She said the Fed is continuing to assess the balance between interest rate levels and their impact on both inflation and growth, underscoring the importance of patience and precision in policy adjustments.

She acknowledged that maintaining stability in such a complex environment requires vigilance but expressed faith in the Federal Reserve’s capacity to adapt effectively.

The focus remains on steering the economy toward a soft landing — reducing inflation gradually without stalling growth or causing unnecessary disruptions in the labor market.

In her address, Hammack also pointed out that the U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience despite global headwinds. Strong employment figures, steady consumer spending, and robust business investment all indicate that the fundamentals of the economy remain strong.

She expressed confidence that, with the right policy mix, inflation can be brought under control while preserving economic momentum.

Hammack’s comments come at a time when central banks globally are facing similar challenges of managing inflation amid evolving market dynamics.

Her perspective reflects the Federal Reserve’s balanced approach — maintaining flexibility while focusing on achieving the dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.

The Cleveland Fed president also highlighted the importance of communication and transparency in monetary policy, emphasizing that clear guidance helps businesses and investors plan effectively.

She added that collaboration among policymakers, economists, and financial institutions plays a crucial role in ensuring steady progress toward long-term economic goals.

Overall, Hammack’s outlook reflects a positive sentiment about the direction of the U.S. economy. While acknowledging short-term challenges, she reinforced the belief that the combination of strong fundamentals, strategic policymaking, and market adaptability will ensure continued growth.

Her message of cautious optimism underscores the Fed’s confidence in navigating current economic complexities while maintaining its focus on sustainable prosperity.

As the U.S. continues to adjust to post-pandemic dynamics, inflation control, and changing global conditions, Hammack’s comments serve as a reminder of the Federal Reserve’s enduring commitment to economic stability.

The balance between managing inflation and supporting employment remains delicate, but the Fed’s pragmatic and data-driven approach continues to inspire confidence in the resilience of the American economy.

Treasury Secretary urges faster rate cuts to strengthen consumer confidence and stabilize housing growth.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has struck an optimistic yet realistic tone on the nation’s economy, highlighting that while certain sectors such as housing are under pressure from high interest rates, the broader U.S. economy remains resilient and well-positioned for recovery.

Speaking on Sunday, Bessent emphasized that the Federal Reserve has the opportunity to accelerate rate cuts to help balance growth and affordability, especially in the housing market.

Bessent noted that the United States continues to show economic strength in several key areas, from employment to consumer spending, but that the housing sector faces temporary challenges

. “We are in good shape, but there are sectors of the economy that are in recession,” he said in an interview, adding that high mortgage rates have made it difficult for first-time homebuyers and low-income families to access affordable housing.

“The Fed has caused a lot of distributional problems with their policies,” he said.

The Treasury Secretary pointed out that despite these pressures, the overall financial system remains healthy. He described the current period as a “transition phase” — one where steady policy actions could steer the economy back toward balanced growth.

Pending home sales in September were flat, according to the National Association of Realtors, suggesting stabilization after months of adjustment in the housing market.

Experts note that rising borrowing costs have cooled real estate demand, but with inflation showing signs of moderation and unemployment rates stable, conditions are ripe for a rebound if interest rates ease.

Bessent reinforced this view, saying that lower rates could unlock new opportunities in housing construction and lending, spurring economic activity across related sectors such as materials, furnishings, and local services.

The Treasury chief’s comments followed a week of debate within the Federal Reserve over how quickly to move on rate adjustments. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently hinted that additional rate cuts at the December meeting were “not a foregone conclusion,” a cautious stance that has drawn criticism from both administration officials and market analysts.

Bessent, along with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, argued that keeping rates high for too long risks slowing the economy unnecessarily.

Miran, who previously chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisers, warned in a recent interview that prolonged tight monetary policy could trigger avoidable slowdowns.

“If you keep policy this tight for a long period of time, you run the risk that monetary policy itself is inducing a recession,” he said, calling instead for a 50-basis-point cut to stimulate momentum and maintain investor confidence.

Bessent echoed that sentiment, highlighting the government’s efforts to reduce fiscal pressure. He pointed to the Trump administration’s successful moves to lower the deficit-to-GDP ratio from 6.4% to 5.9%, an achievement that contributes to easing inflationary pressures. “If we are contracting spending, then inflation should be dropping.

If inflation is dropping, then the Fed should be cutting rates,” he said, suggesting that fiscal responsibility and monetary flexibility can work hand in hand.

Market analysts believe that faster rate cuts could rejuvenate the housing sector, making mortgages more affordable and boosting home sales, particularly among younger and first-time buyers.

The ripple effects could support construction jobs, increase consumer confidence, and stimulate growth in local economies.

Despite recent challenges, the overall tone from Bessent and other policymakers remains positive. The U.S. economy continues to show adaptability amid changing global conditions, supported by strong private investment, technological innovation, and a robust labor market.

With potential policy adjustments on the horizon, analysts say the nation is well-positioned for renewed growth and a stronger housing market heading into 2026.

With energy prices driving inflation and burdening households, Takaichi’s policies aim to balance economic stability, environmental responsibility, and national resilience.

A Pro-Nuclear Vision for a Sustainable Future

Takaichi, known for her pragmatic and forward-looking approach, has long been an advocate of nuclear energy and next-generation fusion technology.

Her leadership signals a major push toward reviving Japan’s nuclear fleet, which she views as essential for cutting fuel import costs, reducing carbon emissions, and achieving long-term energy independence.

Following the Fukushima disaster in 2011, Japan’s nuclear sector saw years of hesitation and slow restarts. Of the 54 reactors previously in operation, only 33 remain technically operable, and just 14 have been restarted so far.

Takaichi’s government plans to accelerate the approval process for safe reactors, ensuring compliance with strict safety standards and community engagement.

“We aim to proceed with nuclear restarts while taking concrete steps to gain the necessary understanding of local communities and stakeholders,” said Ryosei Akazawa, Japan’s newly appointed Minister for Economy, Trade, and Industry.

Strengthening Ties with the U.S.

Takaichi’s appointment of Akazawa, a fluent English speaker and experienced negotiator of Japan-U.S. trade agreements, highlights her commitment to strong international cooperation, especially with Washington. Analysts see this as a sign that Japan will continue deepening energy and trade relations with the U.S.

Her government is preparing an energy package to present during U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to Tokyo next week. The package includes additional liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchases from American suppliers, demonstrating Japan’s willingness to diversify energy sources while maintaining economic diplomacy.

However, Tokyo remains cautious about committing to the $44-billion Alaska LNG project, preferring a balanced approach that avoids overreliance on any single source.

Tackling Inflation Through Energy Reform

Japan spent an estimated 10.7 trillion yen ($71 billion) last year on imported LNG and coal — around 10% of the country’s total import costs. With 60% to 70% of Japan’s electricity generated from imported fossil fuels, energy prices have been a key driver of inflation and public frustration.

By restarting nuclear reactors and investing in domestic technologies, the Takaichi administration hopes to stabilize energy prices, cut emissions, and boost industrial productivity.

Lower electricity costs could ease pressure on both households and small businesses while supporting the competitiveness of Japanese manufacturing and data-driven industries.

Embracing Innovation and Energy Diversification

While nuclear power remains central to her strategy, Takaichi also emphasizes technological innovation and energy diversification.

She supports the development of perovskite solar cells, an emerging Japanese innovation that could redefine solar energy efficiency and become a valuable export technology.

However, she has expressed skepticism toward massive solar and wind projects, especially those dependent on imported Chinese components.

Instead, she aims to promote smaller-scale, domestically developed renewable technologies that align with Japan’s economic and environmental goals.

Industry analysts note that her approach could shift investment focus toward homegrown innovations, such as advanced nuclear and fusion technologies, which could make Japan a leader in clean, reliable energy.

A Balanced and Future-Oriented Energy Policy

Takaichi’s energy agenda reflects a balanced vision—one that acknowledges the importance of renewables but prioritizes energy reliability and national security.

Her stance on nuclear restarts is supported by many experts who argue that Japan cannot meet its decarbonization and affordability goals without restoring its nuclear capacity.

“Prime Minister Takaichi will almost certainly push for a more ambitious nuclear reactor relaunch,” said Henning Gloystein, managing director at Eurasia Group. “This will help bring down power prices while reducing dependence on imported fuels.”

As Japan faces growing energy demands from data centers, industry expansion, and climate goals, the Takaichi administration’s policies mark a turning point.

By combining nuclear innovation, international cooperation, and domestic research, Japan is positioning itself for a sustainable, secure, and economically vibrant energy future.

In the years ahead, Takaichi’s leadership may restore public confidence in nuclear technology and reaffirm Japan’s global role as a clean-energy pioneer—proving that a nation once scarred by disaster can emerge stronger, safer, and more self-reliant through bold, science-driven reform.

“Investors remain optimistic as the U.S. labor market shows resilience, supporting continued growth and potential rate cuts,”

Wall Street enters the final week of September with renewed optimism as investors eagerly await U.S. employment data, a key indicator that could support further interest rate cuts and sustain the equity market’s recent momentum. Analysts and market participants are viewing the upcoming jobs report not as a potential risk, but as an opportunity to gauge the continued strength of the labor market and the resilience of the American economy.

Despite minor fluctuations this week, U.S. stock indexes remain near record highs, with the benchmark S&P 500 poised for its best third-quarter performance since 2020. The index has benefited from a combination of robust corporate earnings, resilient consumer demand, and expectations that the Federal Reserve may continue its cautious approach to interest rate reductions. For investors, these factors signal a favorable environment for growth-oriented strategies and long-term confidence in U.S. markets.

Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, noted that the labor market appears to be navigating a “soft patch” rather than a downturn, a development that could allow the Federal Reserve to continue its measured rate cuts without triggering fears of recession. Economists surveyed by Reuters anticipate a modest increase in non-farm payrolls by 39,000 in September, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3 percent. These figures suggest that the job market remains strong enough to support households and consumption while giving the central bank room to maintain economic stimulus.

The Federal Reserve recently enacted its first interest rate reduction of the year, responding to signs of moderation in the labor market. Market watchers are now expecting another quarter-percentage-point cut at the end of October, with the potential for one more reduction before the end of the year. This gradual approach has reinforced investor confidence and contributed to the S&P 500 achieving 25 record closing highs over the past three months, highlighting a sustained period of market strength.

While inflation remains a consideration, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank is prepared to balance near-term inflationary pressures with the broader goal of fostering economic growth. Investors are interpreting this approach positively, seeing the Fed’s caution as a signal that monetary policy will continue to support expansion while avoiding abrupt disruptions in the market.

Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower, highlighted that a stable labor market provides flexibility in Fed decisions and reassures investors. “If jobs come in as expected, the market could see a smooth path for rate cuts and continued gains,” she said. This measured outlook has reinforced optimism among traders and analysts alike, who are encouraged by the steady performance of equities despite occasional short-term volatility.

Congressional negotiations to fund the government ahead of a potential partial shutdown remain a focal point for markets. However, investors are confident that lawmakers will reach an agreement, minimizing disruption and maintaining positive momentum in equity and bond markets. Historical experience shows that while government funding issues can temporarily unsettle markets, long-term performance has consistently rebounded, providing stability for investors.

The U.S. stock market has also benefited from elevated valuations that reflect confidence in earnings growth and economic resilience. With the S&P 500 on track for a third consecutive year of double-digit gains, analysts point to the combination of strong labor market fundamentals, supportive monetary policy, and strategic corporate investments as key drivers of sustained investor optimism.

As the jobs report approaches, the prevailing sentiment on Wall Street is one of cautious confidence. Investors are positioning portfolios to take advantage of continued economic expansion, anticipating that the labor market’s resilience will underpin additional monetary easing and further market growth. With U.S. equities near historic highs, the outlook remains positive, offering both opportunities and reassurance to global investors monitoring America’s economic trajectory.

In summary, next week’s employment data represents more than just a statistic; it is a signal of continued strength, stability, and opportunity in the U.S. economy. Market participants are entering the report with optimism, supported by a resilient labor market, robust corporate performance, and prudent Fed policies that collectively underscore a favorable environment for growth and investment.

”Population shifts won’t rock U.S. inflation,” says Fed Governor Stephen Miran.

As the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to refine its policy tools, recent analyses around immigration’s impact on housing and inflation underscore a measured, data-driven approach that reassures both markets and consumers. Fed Governor Stephen Miran’s recent assessment sparked discussions about potential effects of immigration trends on rent and overall inflation, but experts emphasize that the broader U.S. economy remains resilient.

Miran’s evaluation, which referenced historical housing data from the 1980 Mariel boatlift in Miami, aims to understand how changes in population dynamics could influence rental markets and consumer prices. While his initial estimates suggested a moderate effect on rent inflation, leading economists point out that the actual impact is smaller than early figures implied, highlighting the robustness of U.S. housing and rental markets.

Albert Saiz, a distinguished MIT economist whose research informed parts of Miran’s analysis, notes that population growth and migration patterns do influence housing prices, but the magnitude is manageable. Even with shifts in local demand, overall consumer inflation is projected to remain stable, giving policymakers confidence in a steady economic environment. This measured perspective allows the Fed to carefully calibrate its interest rates while maintaining its dual focus on price stability and employment growth.

By considering the full scope of population trends and rental market data, Miran and the Federal Reserve are demonstrating a forward-looking approach. Their work reflects an effort to anticipate market movements without overreacting to short-term changes, ensuring Americans experience balanced and predictable inflation trends. Saiz’s latest research shows that a modest adjustment in rent inflation would have a limited effect on the national consumer price index, reinforcing that the economy is fundamentally resilient.

Miran’s updated analysis retains a cautious estimate for rent-related inflation adjustments but emphasizes that the effect on total inflation will be minimal, around 0.1 percentage points per year. This measured approach allows the Fed to respond thoughtfully, maintaining a stable monetary environment while still addressing emerging trends. Analysts see this as a positive step in ensuring that policy decisions are informed, data-driven, and protective of consumer interests.

The discussion also highlights the broader benefits of rigorous research in shaping economic policy. By incorporating historical data and contemporary studies, the Fed continues to provide guidance that supports sustainable growth. This balance reassures businesses, investors, and everyday Americans that inflation and housing markets are being monitored and managed carefully, reducing uncertainty and enhancing economic confidence.

As the Federal Reserve evaluates its policies in light of these findings, markets can remain optimistic. The emphasis on careful measurement, combined with the recognition that population shifts have a manageable effect on inflation, underscores the Fed’s commitment to a stable, forward-looking economy. Policymakers are thus positioned to make informed, proactive decisions that support both economic stability and long-term growth.

In conclusion, the ongoing analysis of immigration and housing impacts illustrates the Fed’s dedication to maintaining a resilient economy while applying thoughtful, research-based policy decisions. Americans can take comfort in knowing that the central bank is continuously evaluating trends and employing measured strategies to ensure stability, affordability, and continued economic growth across the nation.