In a prime-time address, Trump said the United States would “hit” Iran hard over the next two to three weeks while asserting that core military objectives were nearing completion.

However, the absence of a defined endgame unsettled investors and raised concerns about prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.

South AfricaBenchmark crude prices jumped around 5%, climbing above $106 per barrel, while equity markets declined across major regions as traders reacted to continued uncertainty over the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments.

Trump reiterated that U.S. forces were “on track” to complete their objectives “very shortly,” and said Iran had been “essentially decimated,” while warning that further escalation remained possible if Tehran did not meet U.S. demands.

He also suggested potential strikes on key infrastructure, including energy facilities. Despite the aggressive rhetoric, diplomatic prospects remain limited. A senior Iranian source told Reuters that Tehran is seeking a guaranteed ceasefire before halting attacks and confirmed that no indirect talks on a temporary truce have taken place.

The ongoing conflict, which began after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Feb. 28, has disrupted global oil flows and heightened geopolitical risk across the Middle East. Iran’s effective blockade of Hormuz has constrained shipments that typically account for about one-fifth of global oil and gas trade, amplifying volatility in energy markets.

Market participants said Trump’s speech failed to reassure investors seeking clarity on how and when the conflict might end, with uncertainty over supply disruptions and military escalation continuing to drive price swings.

International financial institutions, including the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and International Energy Agency, have warned that the war is having significant and uneven global economic impacts, particularly on energy-importing countries.

Brent crude futures rose 65 cents to $112.84 a barrel by 0446 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed 84 cents to $98.75, after both benchmarks had earlier fallen by more than $1. The spread between the two contracts widened to over $13 a barrel, the largest gap in years.

The volatility follows a U.S. decision to allow the temporary delivery and sale of Iranian-origin oil already at sea, injecting additional supply into markets strained by disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict.

Market sentiment remained highly sensitive to geopolitical developments after Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum demanding Iran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants.Iranian officials responded with warnings that any such action would trigger attacks on critical energy and infrastructure assets across the Gulf.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said regional facilities could face “irreversible” damage if Iranian plants were targeted.Analysts said the exchange of threats pointed to a heightened risk of escalation.

Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects said markets were underestimating the likelihood that Iran would resist pressure, warning that further confrontation could have severe consequences for Gulf infrastructure.

Despite the release of additional Iranian oil, traders remained focused on the scale of supply disruption caused by the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy flows handling roughly 20% of oil and liquefied natural gas trade, has been severely affected.Industry estimates suggest the war has removed between 7 million and 10 million barrels per day from Middle East production, tightening global supply even as policymakers attempt to stabilise markets.

Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights said short-term price movements would continue to be driven by geopolitical rhetoric, but longer-term trends would depend on the restoration of oil flows from the region.

Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, described the current crisis as “very severe,” exceeding the combined impact of the oil shocks of the 1970s.The conflict, now in its fourth week, has damaged major energy facilities and disrupted shipping routes, amplifying concerns over prolonged supply constraints and broader economic fallout.

The interplay between potential supply increases from Iranian oil and the risk of further infrastructure damage has left markets exposed to sharp price swings as the situation evolves.

Speaking at the National Press Club in Canberra, Birol said the agency would assess market conditions before deciding on further action, after member countries agreed on March 11 to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to ease surging crude prices.

“If it is necessary, of course, we will do it,” Birol said, adding there was no fixed price threshold that would automatically trigger another coordinated release. He cautioned that stock drawdowns could help stabilise markets but would not resolve underlying supply constraints.

Birol said the Asia-Pacific region was at the forefront of the crisis due to its reliance on energy and critical commodities shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime corridor affected by the conflict.

He described the current situation in the Middle East as “very severe,” saying its impact exceeded that of the 1970s oil shocks and the gas market fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war combined.

According to Birol, the conflict has removed around 11 million barrels per day from global oil supply, intensifying pressure on economies dependent on imports.“The single most important solution to this problem is opening the Hormuz Strait,” he said.

Birol said stock releases represented only one element of the agency’s response, pointing to demand-side measures such as reduced speed limits and increased remote working to curb fuel consumption.

He noted similar steps had helped lower energy use in Europe in 2022, though implementation would depend on national policy decisions.

“The depth of the problem was not well appreciated by decision makers around the world,” Birol said, explaining his decision to speak publicly weeks into the conflict.

During his visit, Birol met Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and reviewed the country’s fuel preparedness. While noting that Australia’s overall liquid fuel reserves remain below IEA requirements, he said recent efforts had improved resilience.

He described Australia’s diesel reserves, currently at around 30 days, as “a solid number” in the current environment.

Birol is scheduled to travel to Japan later this week ahead of a Group of Seven meeting, where energy security and coordinated responses to the supply shock are expected to be discussed.

The agency said governments, businesses and households could take immediate steps to reduce fuel demand and mitigate the impact of rising costs, following its decision earlier this month to release record volumes of oil from emergency reserves.

In its latest guidance, the IEA said practical actions such as increased remote work, lower highway speed limits and reduced reliance on air travel could help curb fuel consumption in the short term. The proposals are aimed at softening the burden on consumers facing higher energy bills.

The agency framed the recommendations as part of a broader strategy to complement supply-side interventions, emphasizing coordinated action across sectors to stabilize markets.

The IEA earlier agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves, marking the largest such move in its history. The United States is contributing the majority of the supply, reflecting its central role in global energy coordination efforts.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the agency remains in close contact with key governments, including major producers and consumers, as part of ongoing energy diplomacy efforts.

“We have recently launched the largest ever release of IEA emergency oil stocks,” Birol said in a statement, adding that discussions with governments are continuing to address market volatility.

The spike in oil prices linked to the conflict has intensified concerns over inflation worldwide, as higher energy costs ripple through transport, manufacturing and household expenses.

Birol said the latest report provides “a menu of immediate and concrete measures” that can be implemented quickly to shield consumers, highlighting the importance of reducing demand alongside boosting supply in times of crisis.

So far, 130 countries have agreed to triple renewables and double the rate of energy efficiency improvements, while 50 oil and gas companies have agreed to cut out methane emissions and eliminate routine flaring by 2030 under the Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter.

If everyone delivered on their commitments, it would lower global-energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 4 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030, the IEA analysis said.

That is about a third of the emissions gap that needs to be closed in the next six years to limit warming to 1.5C above preindustrial levels, as agreed to in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

“They would not be nearly enough to move the world onto a path to reaching international climate targets,” the IEA said. “The IEA will continue to monitor the ongoing developments at COP28 and update its assessment as needed.”

The IEA has previously said that countries would need to deliver in five key areas at COP28 to keep 1.5C a possibility.

In addition to adding renewables, boosting energy efficiency and cutting methane, it said a large-scale financing mechanism is needed to triple clean energy investment in poorer nations. The IEA also said the world would need to commit to a decline in the use of fossil fuels, and end new approvals of unabated coal-fired power plants.

The COP28 summit runs through Dec. 12.

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