A Clear-Edged Breakdown of Iran’s Strategic Shift Toward Saudi Arabia

According to political expert Mario Nawfal, Iran has taken a step it previously insisted it would never consider: requesting Saudi Arabia’s assistance in reopening nuclear talks with the United States. This outreach reflects a significant shift in Tehran’s approach and signals a moment shaped less by diplomatic confidence and more by mounting pressure.

A letter from President Masoud Pezeshkian was delivered to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman shortly before the Saudi leader’s visit to the White House. The communication notably departed from Iran’s traditional revolutionary tone. Instead of confrontational rhetoric, it emphasised openness to dialogue and explicitly appealed for support in re-engaging with Washington.

The fact that Tehran is directing such a request to Riyadh—its longstanding regional rival—indicates that circumstances are tightening around Iran’s strategic environment.

Two core factors underpin this sudden shift in posture.

The first is fear. Israeli strikes in June targeted Iranian nuclear sites and, more importantly, undermined Iran’s sense of invulnerability. Tehran now perceives the possibility of further action if diplomatic efforts break down.

The second factor is survival. Iran’s economic situation continues to deteriorate, with the rial weakening sharply and energy shortages disrupting daily life. Public frustration is intensifying as these pressures accumulate.

Alongside these domestic concerns, Iran’s broader regional influence is eroding. Hezbollah is weakened, Hamas has been significantly damaged, and the Syrian government under Bashar al-Assad has fallen. Collectively, these developments are rapidly reducing Tehran’s regional leverage.

In contrast, Saudi Arabia possesses advantages Tehran currently lacks: direct influence in Washington, a personal channel to former President Donald Trump, and regional authority grounded in economic strength, energy resources, and political stability. While Oman and Qatar are capable of transmitting messages, Saudi Arabia has the capacity to shape outcomes.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has indicated an openness to facilitating diplomatic progress—not as an act of benevolence, but because a U.S.–Iran conflict would generate serious consequences across the Gulf region.

Both Iran and the United States publicly endorse diplomacy, yet neither is willing to accommodate the other’s demands. Iran’s clerical establishment maintains that negotiations cannot occur “under threat.” However, the current threats surrounding Tehran are also the primary drivers pushing it toward engagement.

President Pezeshkian highlighted the deep religious, cultural, and historical bonds shared by Muslim countries and stressed the need to build stronger solidarity across the Islamic world. He called for greater collaboration between Tehran and Riyadh in political, economic, and security sectors, saying such efforts could help address regional challenges without external interference.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran is fully ready to expand its ties with Saudi Arabia in all arenas,” President Pezeshkian stated during the meeting. He welcomed the idea of forming joint working groups to explore opportunities for cooperation in key areas.

The Iranian president noted that unity among Islamic countries is essential for peace, security, and lasting economic development. “Disputes and poverty do not befit the Islamic Ummah,” he said, adding that leaders in the Muslim world have the potential to set an inspiring example of peaceful coexistence and progress.

President Pezeshkian also expressed his readiness to host Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Tehran, signaling a desire for continued high-level engagement between the two influential nations.

Prince Khalid bin Salman, for his part, conveyed greetings from the Saudi king and crown prince, and described his meetings with Iranian officials as positive and constructive, signaling a shared commitment to closer cooperation and regional peace.

The meeting marks another milestone in the warming of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, following the restoration of diplomatic ties last year under the China-brokered Beijing Agreement.

The visit comes amid a broader effort to strengthen bilateral ties and address regional challenges. Prince Khalid is scheduled to hold a series of high-level meetings with Iranian officials to discuss mutual interests and explore avenues for cooperation between the two nations.

This visit follows a recent phone call on Monday between Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi. During the conversation, the two top diplomats discussed regional developments and the need for joint efforts to resolve pressing issues.

In a statement posted on X (formerly Twitter), the Saudi Ministry of Defense said: “Under the guidance of the leadership – may God preserve them – His Royal Highness Prince Khalid bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, Minister of Defense, and his accompanying delegation arrived today in the Iranian capital, Tehran, on an official visit. His Highness will hold a number of meetings to discuss bilateral relations and matters of mutual concern.”

The visit underscores the continuing momentum in Saudi-Iranian diplomacy following the resumption of ties last year and signals both nations’ intent to engage constructively on regional stability and cooperation.

Qatar is conducting a multi-pronged, global influence campaign to expand its regional and international clout.

Recently, it was reported that Israeli security officials are investigating the possibility that Qatari elements are behind a wave of online posts in recent weeks designed to cast doubt on the stability of the peace agreement between Israel and Egypt. These posts, widely circulated in Israeli media, focused on Egypt’s military buildup and increased troop deployment in Sinai — a move that could be seen as violating the peace treaty.

However, a civil society group called “Fake Reporter,” which tracks malicious online activity, found a sharp rise in content on social media portraying Egypt as an increasing threat to Israel. Some of the videos and images used to support these claims were actually from an Egyptian military drill held in 2018.

While it’s true that Egypt has been enhancing its military capabilities, it seems there’s a deliberate attempt to frame this as a threat to Israel. The suspicion is that this disinformation campaign may be aimed at weakening Egypt’s role as a mediator, particularly with the U.S., in Middle Eastern affairs — and especially in Gaza-related matters.

If Qatar is indeed behind this disinformation, it would be yet another link in its vast influence network — one that’s drawn increasing attention lately, both due to the potential collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and Qatar’s involvement in mediation efforts around hostage negotiations. In the Israeli context, reports have surfaced about Qatar hiring Israeli PR experts — including advisors to Netanyahu — to improve its image in global public opinion and in the Jewish world.

This isn’t a new tactic for the small Gulf emirate. While research on influence campaigns over the past decade has focused mostly on Russia, China, and Iran, Qatar has largely flown under the radar — unjustly so. A series of investigations by Reuters since 2019 exposed “Project Raven,” a secret UAE-led operation that hired former NSA agents to spy on targets in Turkey, France, Yemen, Iran, Qatar, and Israel.

Leaked information from that project revealed the extent of Qatar’s global influence operations — supporting both terrorist groups and friendly regimes in the West, while also working to destabilize governments across the Arab world.

For example, Qatar played a role in toppling Gaddafi’s regime in Libya and was the first to recognize the rebel government. It also supported Tunisia’s post-revolution regime after the fall of Ben Ali, and has actively backed Syrian rebels with weapons and funding. Traditionally, Qatar has pursued a proactive agenda in the Arab world and has recently intensified efforts to position itself as a leader of the Sunni world. To that end, it engages in various influence channels:

Influence Among Decision Makers

Qatar commonly uses financial incentives to sway influencers and policymakers. Beyond the bribery scandals uncovered in Project Raven, French authorities recently indicted Nasser Al-Khelaifi — a senior official in Qatar’s Investment Authority and president of Paris Saint-Germain football club — for allegedly using bribes to manipulate business decisions.

Similarly, U.S. Senator Bob Menendez was accused of accepting bribes from both Qatar and Egypt to advance their interests. Qatar also funds trips for politicians and journalists to Doha — a form of soft power. In 2018, federal investigations began in the U.S. into whether lobbyists and former government officials working for Qatar had violated lobbying laws. That year, 250 people close to President Trump were flown to Doha at Qatar’s expense. Likewise, Rep. Ilhan Omar was flown to Qatar during the 2022 World Cup, and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer admitted to a similar Qatar-sponsored trip when he was still a member of Parliament.

Just last week, the European Network of Aviation Associations (ENAA) warned the EU’s transport department about a possible aviation deal with Qatar, raising corruption concerns.

Financial Influence

Qatar’s wealth oils the wheels of influence in the U.S. Congress — with reports in 2018 showing that 59 members received donations from Qatar. Think tanks in Washington also benefit, making Qatar a major funder of those who whisper in the ears of decision-makers. In 2022, it was revealed that Gen. John Allen, then-president of the Brookings Institution, was under investigation for secretly lobbying for Qatar after retiring from the military — earning over $1 million in fees. He worked alongside Richard Olson, former U.S. ambassador to Pakistan and the UAE, who admitted to participating in the lobbying campaign.

“Qatargate” Scandal in Europe

The Qatargate scandal in the European Parliament revealed that, starting in 2019, Qatar paid Italian MEP Antonio Panzeri and Greek EU Vice President Eva Kaili in exchange for favorable votes. This led to greater scrutiny in Europe over parliamentarians’ trips to Qatar and prompted ethics committees to enhance oversight and limit Qatari influence.

Western Assets and Public Opinion

Qatar also secures influence through investments. It holds major stakes in European corporations like Porsche. Its massive investment in building the U.S. air base at Al-Udeid made it the largest American military base in the Middle East. Qatar also targets American public opinion — in spring 2020, it donated millions in COVID-19 aid to families in Los Angeles, Charleston (South Carolina), and other U.S. cities.

Influence Through Sports

Qatar places immense importance on sports as a tool for influence. Hosting the 2022 FIFA World Cup was the result of a massive lobbying effort — including hiring Israeli PR experts. The campaign continues, with recent reports of Qatari investors aiming to buy the English football club Tottenham and launching their bid to host the 2027 Basketball World Cup. During the 2024 Paris Olympics, Qatari leaders, including the Emir, were prominent guests at the opening ceremony, and Al-Khelaifi even carried the Olympic torch.

Diplomatic Influence

Qatar invests heavily in its image as a regional mediator. Both the Biden and Trump administrations praised its efforts in negotiating the release of American hostages from the Taliban. Doha values this role so highly that its diplomats frequently emphasize Qatar’s neutrality. For instance, the Qatari ambassador to the U.S. wrote op-eds in The Wall Street Journal and Newsweek framing Qatar as an honest broker. Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson has echoed this narrative in numerous interviews, including with Israeli outlets like Haaretz and Channel 12. Journalists from The Jerusalem Post and Kan 11 have even been invited to Doha.

Influence in Education

A 2022 study by the U.S. National Association of Scholars revealed that between 2001 and 2021, Qatar donated $4.7 billion to American universities — including Cornell, Georgetown, and Carnegie Mellon — in return for opening Doha branches. Sometimes, this came with conditions, like removing certain course content or cooperating with Qatari media like Al Jazeera. Texas A&M alone received $404 million between 2015 and 2023. (The university has announced plans to shut its Doha campus by 2027 — a move publicly criticized by the U.S. ambassador to Qatar.)

Qatar has become the largest foreign donor to U.S. universities, often without proper disclosure, and a 2020 ISGAP study found a correlation between Qatari funding and pro-Palestinian activism on American campuses.

Supporting Terror-Linked Groups Under a Humanitarian Disguise

Qatar often masks its support for terror-linked entities as humanitarian aid. To retain influence in Gaza, Qatar insisted on delivering aid during the early 2025 ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, including fuel and bulldozers. It pledged $100 million to UNRWA, with $4.5 million earmarked for operations in the West Bank. Qatar also funneled money to Hezbollah through “charities” that provide food, medicine, and education — and used similar “humanitarian” ventures to build ties with the Houthis in Yemen and the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Media Influence

Qatar’s media arm, Al Jazeera, plays a major role in shaping public opinion. It’s the most popular English-language news network in the world after CNN and BBC — and has been accused of acting as a mouthpiece for Hamas and other Islamist groups. Since its founding in 1996, Al Jazeera has provided a platform for Muslim Brotherhood leaders and broadcast divisive content about the Arab world.

Its various branches, including AJ+ in the U.S., continue to influence global narratives. In Gaza, several Al Jazeera journalists were recently found to be affiliated with Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and the channel actively promoted staged events involving Israeli hostages.

Conclusion

Qatar is conducting a multi-pronged, global influence campaign to expand its regional and international clout. Through its vast network of soft power — in diplomacy, media, education, finance, and humanitarian aid — Qatar has become a key player in global affairs. Israel’s current dependence on Qatari mediation regarding hostages forces it to tolerate, and even flatter, one of Hamas’s primary funders — without whom the October 7th attack may not have happened. Qatar is now also helping Hamas recover.

This case illustrates the sophistication of Qatar’s influence strategy — and the urgent need to monitor and defend against it.

Translated in English from Jerusalem Institute of Strategic Studies.