The World Meteorological Organization said there is an 86 percent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded. The agency also projected a 75 percent probability that average global temperatures over the five-year period will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

The warning comes as parts of Europe experience unusually early heatwaves, with temperature records broken in Britain and France during May.

Scientists linked the rising temperatures partly to the expected return of the El Nino climate pattern by late 2026, which historically boosts global warming. WMO climate expert Leon Hermanson said the phenomenon could make 2027 a potential record-breaking year.

The agency stressed that temporary breaches of the 1.5C threshold do not automatically mean the Paris climate target has permanently failed, as the agreement measures long-term warming trends over decades rather than individual years.

The report also warned of accelerated warming in the Arctic, where winter temperatures are forecast to rise at more than three times the global average. Wetter conditions are expected across northern Europe, the Sahel, Alaska and Siberia, while drought risks may intensify in the Amazon region.

The ministry said India successfully met a peak power demand of 270.82 gigawatts (GW) on Thursday, marking the fourth straight day of all-time high electricity consumption as soaring temperatures across large parts of the country drove increased use of cooling appliances.

“Although we are prepared to supply electricity as required, due to the intense summer, let us all try to use electricity wisely and judiciously,” the ministry said in a statement, while noting that rising demand appeared to be linked to greater usage of air conditioners, coolers and other cooling equipment.

The warning comes as large parts of northern and central India continue to endure severe heat conditions. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the highest temperature recorded on Thursday was 47.6 degrees Celsius in Banda district of Uttar Pradesh, while New Delhi registered temperatures of around 43 degrees Celsius on Friday.

The heatwave has also pushed nighttime temperatures to unusually elevated levels, limiting relief for residents and increasing electricity consumption around the clock. One of New Delhi’s principal weather stations recorded a minimum temperature of 31.9 degrees Celsius on Thursday, the highest May overnight temperature in the capital in 14 years, IMD data showed.

India’s electricity generation mix remained dominated by thermal power, primarily coal-fired plants, which accounted for 62% of output on Thursday. Solar energy contributed 22%, while wind and hydropower each represented about 5% of generation, according to official data.

Despite the ministry’s assertion that demand was being met, some users reported localized outages on social media platform X. Industry analysts note that extreme heat can strain aging distribution infrastructure, including transformers and local transmission networks, leading to isolated power disruptions even when overall generation capacity remains adequate.

The prolonged heat has also affected water bodies and ecosystems. In New Delhi, municipal workers were seen removing dead fish from Sanjay Park lake after shrinking water levels and high temperatures reduced oxygen concentrations in the water.

India, the world’s most populous nation and the third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070 but continues to rely heavily on coal to meet growing energy demand.
Meteorologists have warned that minimum temperatures across the country are likely to remain above normal through May.

The IMD said average minimum temperatures in April were 0.78 degrees Celsius higher than the long-term average nationwide.

Scientific studies have linked the increasing frequency, duration and intensity of heatwaves globally to climate change, with India experiencing a series of increasingly severe summer heat events in recent years.

The country’s highest officially recorded temperature remains 51 degrees Celsius, measured in Phalodi, Rajasthan, in 2016.