Setting ambitious goals can improve outcomes, but aiming unrealistically high may ultimately reduce the chances of success, according to researchers whose mathematical model examines the relationship between aspiration and achievement.

The findings contribute to a long-running debate about whether individuals should pursue the most ambitious targets possible or calibrate expectations more carefully to match realistic opportunities. While the research lends support to aspects of conventional self-improvement advice, its authors caution against interpreting the results as a formula for life decisions.

The study explored how people make choices when pursuing uncertain opportunities and found that outcomes are often strongest when ambitions are high but remain grounded in realistic assessments of what is actually attainable. Excessively ambitious targets can lead individuals to overlook achievable opportunities while waiting for outcomes that may never materialize.

The researchers noted that the model offers a simplified representation of decision-making and cannot capture the full complexity of human relationships, careers or personal aspirations. As a result, they argue that the findings should be viewed as a framework for thinking about decisions rather than a universal strategy.

“I hesitate to quantify relationships in that way,” said researcher Landgren, acknowledging the limits of applying mathematical models to deeply personal choices.The study also raises questions about the influence of social comparison on ambition.

Researchers suggested that people frequently judge potential opportunities against highly visible success stories rather than against the broader range of realistic possibilities available to them. In an era shaped by social media, this tendency may encourage expectations that are disconnected from typical outcomes.

Rather than focusing on exceptional cases, the findings suggest individuals may benefit from evaluating opportunities based on a more representative view of what is realistically achievable.The conclusions stand in contrast to some traditional motivational advice that encourages people to pursue the most ambitious goals imaginable.

One of the most widely cited examples comes from the late Norman Vincent Peale, the American clergyman known for promoting positive thinking, who urged people to “shoot for the moon,” arguing that even failure could still lead to impressive results.Landgren suggested a more measured interpretation.”I would say aim a little lower than the moon,” he said.

“Shoot for the stars, but make sure that the stars you’re seeing are what’s really out there.”The research has attracted attention from scholars studying decision-making and motivation. Peter Ayton, director of the Centre for Decision Research at Leeds University Business School, described the work as offering valuable insight into the balance between aspiration and achievement.

While noting that the authors acknowledge the simplifications inherent in the model, Ayton said the findings provide a useful perspective on how people set goals and evaluate opportunities.”Our ambitions can be very subtly and capriciously influenced,” he said.Ayton pointed to previous research illustrating the impact of goal-setting on performance.

One study involving runners in U.S. marathons found that participants who were simply asked to state a goal before a race performed better than those who were not asked to do so.According to the study, the improvement was equivalent to approximately a 13.5% increase in training volume or the performance advantage associated with being nine years younger during a marathon event.

The findings add to a broader body of research suggesting that clearly defined goals can influence behaviour, persistence and performance. Psychologists have long argued that goals help direct attention, sustain effort and create benchmarks against which progress can be measured.At the same time, researchers continue to debate how ambitious those goals should be.

Targets that are too modest may fail to inspire effort, while goals perceived as unattainable can discourage persistence and increase the likelihood of disappointment.The latest research suggests that the most effective approach may lie between those extremes.

Ambition appears to be most productive when it encourages individuals to stretch their capabilities without losing sight of realistic possibilities.

For decision-makers navigating careers, education, relationships or other life choices, the study offers a reminder that success may depend not only on aiming high but also on accurately understanding the opportunities that genuinely exist.