Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the war had caused the most severe disruption to global energy supply on record, with millions of barrels of oil production shut down due to Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“Instead, all roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth,” Georgieva told Reuters, adding that the IMF would cut its growth forecasts and raise inflation projections in its upcoming World Economic Outlook.

The conflict is expected to dominate discussions at next week’s IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, where policymakers will assess the economic fallout from the crisis.

The Fund had previously anticipated a modest upgrade to global growth projections before the escalation.Georgieva said global oil supply had fallen by about 13%, with knock-on effects extending beyond energy markets into supply chains for commodities such as fertilizers and helium.

Brent crude prices have risen to around $110 per barrel, reflecting tightening supply conditions.She warned that even a swift resolution would leave a lasting economic impact, while a prolonged conflict would deepen inflationary pressures and further dampen growth prospects.

The effects are expected to be uneven, with energy-importing countries facing the greatest strain. Many low-income economies lack the fiscal capacity to cushion rising costs, increasing risks of economic instability and social unrest.

Georgieva said some countries had already sought financial assistance from the IMF, which could expand existing lending programs to address urgent needs. She cautioned against broad energy subsidies, arguing they could exacerbate inflation.Energy exporters have also been affected.

Damage to production infrastructure has slowed output recovery in some countries, including Qatar, where restoration of natural gas capacity could take several years.The IMF is coordinating with other global institutions, including the International Energy Agency and the World Bank, to assess the broader implications of the conflict.

Georgieva also highlighted risks to food security, noting that disruptions to fertilizer supplies could trigger wider shortages if the conflict continues.

The World Food Programme has warned that millions could face acute hunger if conditions worsen.

The announcement comes amid a four-week conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran that has killed thousands and disrupted global energy markets, driving up oil and liquefied natural gas prices and intensifying inflation concerns worldwide.

Deadline extended amid conflicting claimsTrump said talks with Iran were “going very well” and announced a 10-day pause on threatened attacks on Iranian energy facilities, extending an earlier five-day halt declared on March 23.

The pause is set to expire on April 6 at 2000 EDT.Iran, however, said it was not engaged in direct talks with Washington, and officials indicated the U.S. had not clarified who it was negotiating with, as senior Iranian leadership has been significantly affected by the conflict.

Mediators cited by the Wall Street Journal said Tehran had not requested the 10-day pause, while Trump told Fox News that Iran had sought a shorter, seven-day reprieve. There was no immediate confirmation from Iranian authorities.

The conflict has sharply disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery carrying roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas. Oil prices have surged about 40% since hostilities began, with Brent crude rising above $105 per barrel.

Iran has warned it would retaliate against energy infrastructure in the Gulf if U.S. strikes proceed, raising concerns about tit-for-tat attacks on civilian facilities that could further destabilize energy markets and regional economies.Global equities have also come under pressure, with major indexes declining amid uncertainty over the conflict’s trajectory.

The Pentagon is considering deploying up to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East, according to U.S. media reports, while also confirming the use of uncrewed drone speedboats in operations against Iran.

Trump reiterated that the United States could escalate pressure if Iran fails to comply with demands, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and curbing its nuclear programme, and said control of Iran’s oil resources remained an option without elaborating.

An Iranian official said a 15-point U.S. proposal conveyed through Pakistan was reviewed by senior leadership and deemed unacceptable as it primarily served U.S. and Israeli interests.

The proposal reportedly included demands to dismantle Iran’s nuclear programme, limit missile capabilities and alter control over key waterways.

Pakistan’s foreign minister said indirect communication channels remain open, with Turkey and Egypt also involved in mediation efforts.Iran has hardened its negotiating stance, seeking guarantees against future military action, compensation for war damage and greater control over maritime routes, while also insisting that Lebanon be included in any ceasefire framework.

Meanwhile, hostilities continued on multiple fronts, with Iran launching missile strikes on Israeli cities including Tel Aviv and Haifa, and Israeli strikes hitting targets in southern and central Iran, resulting in civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.

Marcos told reporters he had consulted counterparts across the 10-member bloc on whether to postpone the gathering, but leaders agreed that coordination was more critical given the external shocks affecting fuel supply chains, food prices and migrant workers.

“The consensus that we came to is that it is precisely now that we must coordinate our efforts,” Marcos said.

The streamlined agenda will concentrate on immediate economic pressures facing Southeast Asia, including volatility in energy markets and rising food costs, which governments in the region are monitoring closely as geopolitical tensions persist.

ASEAN economies are particularly sensitive to fluctuations in global fuel prices due to their reliance on imports, while supply chain disruptions have added strain to domestic inflation dynamics in several member states.

Marcos said discussions would also address the welfare of migrant workers, a key issue for ASEAN countries that rely heavily on overseas employment. Regional governments have been assessing the impact of instability in the Middle East, a major destination for Southeast Asian labour.

The Philippine government has already flagged concerns about overseas workers in affected areas, reflecting broader anxieties across ASEAN about potential displacement and income disruptions.

The decision to proceed with the summit underscores ASEAN’s preference for continuity in regional dialogue despite global uncertainty. Marcos indicated that postponement was considered but ultimately rejected in favour of maintaining diplomatic engagement.

The summit is expected to retain core leadership interactions while scaling back ceremonial and extended policy sessions, reflecting what Marcos described as a need for efficiency under current conditions.