The sharp increase reflects a sustained rise in crude oil prices, driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply typically flows. Tankers stranded in the region have curtailed deliveries, constraining supply and pushing benchmark oil prices higher.

Market analysts say the price trajectory briefly softened in mid-April amid expectations of a potential ceasefire. “There was optimism that this could mark the beginning of the end of the conflict,” said Rob Smith, director of global fuel retail at S&P Global Energy, noting that crude and gasoline prices temporarily declined before reversing course as hostilities persisted.

Crude oil accounts for the largest share of gasoline costs in the United States, representing about 51 percent of pump prices in 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Taxes contribute roughly 17 percent, while refining, distribution, and marketing costs make up the remainder.

The International Energy Agency has described the disruption linked to the Strait of Hormuz as the largest supply shock in oil market history, with prices reaching as high as $112 per barrel in early April. Analysts note that gasoline prices tend to track crude movements closely, with minimal lag.

Additional upward pressure followed US actions in April to block Iranian oil exports, a move analysts say removed a key supply source from global markets. “Iran had been moving an unusually high amount of oil to global markets, which helped moderate prices,” said Jim Krane, an energy research fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute, adding that the restrictions intensified price pressures.

Energy markets have remained highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with fluctuations tied to reports of attacks in the Arabian Gulf or shifts in diplomatic efforts. “The oil market is exquisitely sensitive to what’s coming out of the White House,” said Bob Kleinberg, a research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

The pace of price increases has echoed previous geopolitical shocks, including a 48-cent weekly rise at the outset of the Iran conflict. However, analysts caution that no near-term relief is likely, as prolonged constraints in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to sustain upward pressure on prices.

Even in the event of a durable resolution, market participants say a return to pre-war pricing levels could take months due to lingering risk premiums associated with shipping through the region and heightened insurance costs for oil transport.

The rise reflects growing nervousness among investors as political risk in Latin America adds to an already complex global landscape shaped by conflicts, energy uncertainty, and shifting monetary policy expectations.

Spot gold recorded a strong single-day gain, extending a rally that has defined recent months. Prices remain close to record territory after reaching historic highs late last year amid sustained geopolitical stress.

Market participants noted that the Venezuela developments did not occur in isolation. Instead, they layered onto existing concerns around global security, energy supply chains, and the future path of U.S. interest rates.

The U.S. intervention in Venezuela marked one of Washington’s most direct actions in the region in decades, immediately triggering volatility across commodities and currencies sensitive to geopolitical disruption.

President Donald Trump warned that further strikes could follow if Venezuela resists U.S. efforts to reshape its oil sector and combat drug trafficking, adding an additional risk premium to global markets.

Gold has traditionally served as a store of value during periods of political instability. Its appeal is further strengthened in low-interest-rate environments because it does not rely on yield to attract investors.

Expectations of monetary easing have been a powerful tailwind. Markets increasingly anticipate multiple interest rate cuts, reinforcing gold’s attractiveness as real yields soften.

Last year, gold posted an exceptional annual gain, supported by central bank buying, strong exchange-traded fund inflows, and persistent geopolitical flashpoints across multiple regions.

Analysts suggest that any further escalation in global tensions could quickly push prices toward new record highs, particularly if economic data supports the case for faster or deeper rate cuts.

Attention is now turning to upcoming U.S. labour market data, especially non-farm payrolls, which could shape expectations around the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory in the months ahead.

Beyond gold, the broader precious metals complex also surged. Silver registered an outsized rally, continuing a dramatic upward trend driven by structural supply deficits and rising industrial demand.

Silver’s performance has been amplified by its designation as a critical mineral in the United States, which has focused investor attention on long-term supply constraints.

Platinum and palladium also posted strong gains, reflecting renewed interest in hard assets as geopolitical uncertainty spreads across regions and asset classes.

For investors, the latest market moves underscore how quickly geopolitical shocks can reshape sentiment. Precious metals continue to act as a hedge against instability, inflation risk, and policy uncertainty.

As global markets balance political risk with economic data, gold’s trajectory will likely remain closely tied to both geopolitical headlines and signals from central banks.