The two state elections, which must be held within 60 days, will not affect Anwar’s parliamentary majority but could provide a key measure of public support for his government ahead of a general election due by early 2028.

Anwar said last month he could consider an early national election if divisions within his coalition continue to widen. His alliance brings together his Pakatan Harapan bloc, former rival Barisan Nasional and several smaller parties.

Tensions have emerged over ethnic and religious issues, while some reform-minded allies have expressed frustration over the pace of promised changes. Anwar has also faced pressure from the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), a key coalition partner, over calls for a royal pardon for former prime minister Najib Razak, who is serving a prison sentence linked to the 1MDB scandal.

In a sign of strains within the alliance, Barisan Nasional said it would contest the Johor election independently rather than alongside Pakatan Harapan.

The outcomes in Johor and Negeri Sembilan are expected to be closely watched as an indicator of the coalition’s electoral strength and cohesion ahead of future state and national contests.

Luxon dismissed suggestions of dissent within his party, telling a press conference he remained confident of continued backing from lawmakers. “I talk to my caucus all the time. I’m very confident I have the full support of my caucus,” he said, adding that his government would be re-elected if a vote were held immediately.

The comments follow a report by the New Zealand Herald that some National Party members could move against Luxon when parliament reconvenes, although the report indicated that any initial effort was unlikely to take the form of a formal leadership challenge or confidence vote.

The developments come amid weakening polling numbers for the ruling coalition. Several recent surveys have shown the National Party struggling to secure more than 30% support, raising concerns about its ability to retain power in the next general election scheduled for November 7.Luxon’s personal approval ratings have also come under pressure.

A March RNZ-Reid Research poll showed opposition leader Chris Hipkins leading preferred prime minister rankings with 20.7% support, compared with 17.3% for Luxon.

The polling trends underscore growing political headwinds for the government as it approaches the election cycle, with voter sentiment indicating a tightening contest between the incumbent coalition and the opposition bloc.