Farmers across several Sudanese agricultural regions told Reuters that escalating input costs are forcing them to scale back planting plans for key crops, including sorghum, millet, wheat and sesame, undermining production at a time when nearly half the population faces severe food shortages.

Sudan is particularly exposed to disruptions stemming from the regional conflict because it relies on Gulf countries for more than half of its fertilizer imports, according to United Nations data. The country has also become entirely dependent on imported fuel after more than three years of civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

The crisis comes as Sudan remains one of the world’s most severe humanitarian emergencies. A UN-backed food security monitor estimates that about 19.5 million people, or more than 40% of the population, are experiencing crisis-level hunger, with some areas facing famine risks.

Sadig Elamin, senior food security analyst for the UN Food and Agriculture Organization in Sudan, said the regional conflict had compounded existing challenges facing the agricultural sector.

“The regional war has added salt to the wound,” Elamin said, warning that agricultural output could decline by at least 40% if current pressures persist.
Agriculture remains central to Sudan’s economy and livelihoods, with roughly two-thirds of the population dependent on farming. Despite vast agricultural potential that has attracted Gulf investment interest, decades of conflict, underinvestment and mismanagement have constrained productivity.

In the Jamuia agricultural scheme south of Omdurman, farmers had anticipated a recovery after RSF fighters were expelled from areas surrounding Khartoum last year. Instead, they now face fertilizer prices that have risen 67% from a year earlier, while diesel costs used to power irrigation pumps have more than doubled, according to national surveys.

“At that price we don’t make a profit, you spend your whole profit on the diesel,” farmer Bashir Ismail told Reuters.

Omar Al-Ebeid, secretary of the scheme’s farmers’ committee, said only 500 of the project’s 10,000 feddans, equivalent to about 4,200 hectares, had been planted midway through the season.

Farmers also criticized the army-aligned government for failing to provide sufficient support as state resources are increasingly directed toward the war effort.

Mohamed Balla, who heads a farmers’ collective in the Gezira scheme, once responsible for around half of Sudan’s sorghum and wheat production, said damaged infrastructure and rising costs were discouraging cultivation.

“The RSF left in February of last year. Nothing has been fixed since then,” Balla said.

He added that crop prices have remained largely unchanged despite soaring costs for agricultural inputs. “Two sacks of wheat buy you one sack of urea. So we won’t grow it again.”

National cereal production had already fallen by about 25% from pre-war averages, according to FAO estimates. Analysts warn further declines could intensify food shortages and increase reliance on humanitarian assistance.

Sudan’s Agricultural Bank, traditionally a major source of financing for farmers, has also struggled amid the conflict. Farmers say financing terms have become increasingly burdensome, pushing many producers into debt.

The bank’s leadership told Reuters it was seeking to ease pressure on farmers by offering inputs on more favorable repayment terms and extending financing periods.

Fatma Yousif, director of agricultural production at Sudan’s Agriculture Ministry, said authorities were coordinating with the bank to establish a financing fund and examining options to help farmers manage fuel costs. She said efforts were also underway to rehabilitate irrigation infrastructure damaged during the conflict.

In western Sudan, insecurity continues to hamper production in Kordofan and Darfur, regions critical for sesame, peanuts, millet and gum arabic exports.
“There is no funding for farmers, no machinery for planting and plowing the land, and no security because the RSF and other gangs loot the crops and demand money at every checkpoint,” said Mohamed Adam, a farmer displaced from West Kordofan to the army-held city of El Obeid.

Farmers in the region reported widespread looting of tractors and agricultural equipment, recruitment of farm laborers into armed groups, and mass displacement of rural communities, leaving large areas of farmland unprepared for the approaching rainy season.

Khalid Abdellatif, a director at agricultural supplier CTC Group, said transporting farming supplies into conflict-affected areas had become increasingly costly and dangerous, with small-scale farmers bearing the brunt of the disruption.

The measure comes as fertilizer prices have surged worldwide after the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime corridor along Iran’s coast that handles roughly one-third of global fertilizer trade. The disruption has intensified competition for alternative supplies and raised concerns over food production and agricultural costs.

The Council said the temporary tariff suspension would apply to major nitrogen-based fertilizer products but would exclude imports originating from Russia and Belarus.

Although the EU has limited direct dependence on Middle Eastern fertilizer supplies, officials said market-wide price increases have affected fertilizer availability and affordability across the bloc. The move is intended to ease pressure on farmers facing higher production costs during a period of heightened volatility in global agricultural markets.

The Council noted that a significant share of EU fertilizer imports already enters duty-free under preferential trade arrangements. However, substantial volumes continue to face customs duties ranging between 5.5% and 6.5%.

To protect European producers while expanding supply, the tariff waiver will be capped through a quota mechanism. Eligible imports will be limited to the volume of most-favored-nation imports recorded in 2024, plus an additional amount equivalent to 20% of fertilizer volumes imported from Russia and Belarus during the same year, the Council said.

The measures are expected to take effect within days after publication in the EU’s Official Journal.

The decision follows warnings from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization that a prolonged disruption of shipping through Hormuz could trigger severe consequences for global food systems by constraining access to fertilizers and raising production costs for farmers.

Early signs of strain are already emerging in agricultural markets. Australia, the world’s third-largest wheat exporter, is planting fewer crops this season amid elevated fertilizer costs, raising the risk of a substantially smaller harvest.

Across parts of Asia, rice production is also expected to decline this year as the conflict compounds weather-related challenges associated with an emerging El Niño pattern.

According to the Council, the EU imported 2 million metric tons of ammonia and 5.9 million metric tons of urea in 2024, alongside 6.7 million metric tons of nitrogen-based fertilizers and nitrogen-containing mixtures.

The European Commission estimates the bloc’s direct reliance on Middle Eastern supplies remains relatively limited, accounting for about 3% of ammonia imports and between 1% and 2% of nitrogen fertilizer imports.

The measure comes as fertilizer prices have surged worldwide after the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime corridor along Iran’s coast that handles roughly one-third of global fertilizer trade. The disruption has intensified competition for alternative supplies and raised concerns over food production and agricultural costs.

The Council said the temporary tariff suspension would apply to major nitrogen-based fertilizer products but would exclude imports originating from Russia and Belarus.

Although the EU has limited direct dependence on Middle Eastern fertilizer supplies, officials said market-wide price increases have affected fertilizer availability and affordability across the bloc. The move is intended to ease pressure on farmers facing higher production costs during a period of heightened volatility in global agricultural markets.

The Council noted that a significant share of EU fertilizer imports already enters duty-free under preferential trade arrangements. However, substantial volumes continue to face customs duties ranging between 5.5% and 6.5%.

To protect European producers while expanding supply, the tariff waiver will be capped through a quota mechanism. Eligible imports will be limited to the volume of most-favored-nation imports recorded in 2024, plus an additional amount equivalent to 20% of fertilizer volumes imported from Russia and Belarus during the same year, the Council said.

The measures are expected to take effect within days after publication in the EU’s Official Journal.
The decision follows warnings from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization that a prolonged disruption of shipping through Hormuz could trigger severe consequences for global food systems by constraining access to fertilizers and raising production costs for farmers.

Early signs of strain are already emerging in agricultural markets. Australia, the world’s third-largest wheat exporter, is planting fewer crops this season amid elevated fertilizer costs, raising the risk of a substantially smaller harvest. Across parts of Asia, rice production is also expected to decline this year as the conflict compounds weather-related challenges associated with an emerging El Niño pattern.

According to the Council, the EU imported 2 million metric tons of ammonia and 5.9 million metric tons of urea in 2024, alongside 6.7 million metric tons of nitrogen-based fertilizers and nitrogen-containing mixtures.

The European Commission estimates the bloc’s direct reliance on Middle Eastern supplies remains relatively limited, accounting for about 3% of ammonia imports and between 1% and 2% of nitrogen fertilizer imports.

A network of U.S. scientists is intensifying efforts to develop more climate-resilient apple trees as increasingly volatile weather patterns threaten orchards across major fruit-growing regions, raising concerns about long-term risks to an industry that generates roughly $23 billion in annual economic activity.

Researchers at Cornell University, the United States Department of Agriculture and several partner institutions are focusing on rootstocks, the underground foundation of commercial apple trees that influences growth, productivity and resistance to environmental stress.

The work has gained urgency since a series of severe temperature swings damaged orchards in the northeastern United States in 2015, an event that some researchers later linked to a phenomenon known as “rapid apple decline.”

Terence Robinson, a horticulture professor at Cornell University, recalled how unusually warm temperatures in February 2015 were followed by a sharp cold snap that swept through New York and into fruit-growing regions of Pennsylvania.“We got a warm-up in February, and then a big cold air mass moved into New York and pushed all the way down into the fruit-growing area of Pennsylvania,” Robinson said.

“In the spring, we started seeing tree damage.”Scientists concluded that the rapid temperature drop, estimated at as much as 65 degrees Fahrenheit within days, disrupted trees that had already begun emerging from winter dormancy. Researchers found particularly severe damage in rootstocks rather than trunks or branches.

The findings drew attention to vulnerabilities in some of the apple industry’s most widely used rootstocks, including the M9 variety developed more than a century ago at England’s East Malling Research Station.Commercial apple trees are typically produced through grafting, a process that combines two different plants.

The upper fruit-bearing portion, known as the scion, comes from commercial varieties such as Gala or Red Delicious. That section is attached to a separate rootstock selected for characteristics including tree size, productivity and disease resistance.

Because rootstocks determine how trees absorb water, respond to stress and tolerate environmental conditions, scientists increasingly view them as central to protecting orchards from climate-related disruptions.Robinson and USDA scientist Gennaro Fazio jointly oversee the Geneva Apple Rootstock Breeding Program, based in Geneva, New York.

The initiative, operated by Cornell University and the USDA, is the only commercial apple rootstock breeding effort in North America focused on developing new foundations for orchards.Since 1968, researchers in the program have crossed and evaluated thousands of apple rootstocks.

Early efforts concentrated largely on disease resistance, particularly protection against fire blight, a destructive bacterial disease affecting apple and pear trees.More recently, researchers have expanded their priorities to include drought tolerance, resistance to high-salinity soils and improved survival during unstable winter conditions.

“We still continue wanting to have a rootstock that is dwarfing, because dwarf orchards are much more profitable, and that produces early,” Robinson said. “We have broadened our list of goals for this program to include drought resistance, tolerance of high-salt-content soils and the ability to withstand more moderate winters.”The process is lengthy.

Developing a commercial rootstock can take decades because scientists must cross parent trees, evaluate offspring for desirable characteristics and test performance across multiple climates and growing conditions.Cornell released its first commercial rootstock in 1997, nearly three decades after the program began.

Some varieties introduced in 2023 originated from genetic crosses first made during the 1970s.“It requires long-term commitment to learn to love apple rootstocks,” Robinson said.Researchers say the challenge has become more complicated because climate variability is increasing faster than orchard replacement cycles.

Apple orchards are typically expected to remain productive for 15 to 30 years, meaning growers must make planting decisions without knowing exactly how weather patterns may evolve over the lifespan of their trees.

Lee Kalcsits, a professor of tree fruit physiology at Washington State University, leads the Strengthening Pear and Apple Resistance to Climate project, known as Sparc, a national research collaboration studying how extreme weather affects fruit trees.

Kalcsits said breeding efforts should prioritize adaptability rather than designing trees for one specific future climate scenario.“We need to be mindful that the rootstocks we select are adaptable,” he said. “It’s not that they’re adapted to a future climate, but that they’re adaptable.”Research published by Kalcsits and colleagues in 2024 found that both fall and spring temperatures are warming in major U.S. apple-growing regions.

Warmer conditions can interfere with the chilling requirements apple trees need before flowering and can also cause trees to leave dormancy earlier, increasing exposure to damaging cold events.Scientists say abrupt winter fluctuations have become a growing concern as climate-driven disruptions to atmospheric circulation allow Arctic air masses to move farther south into the United States.

Robinson said damaging cold snaps have struck major apple-producing areas, including southern Pennsylvania and western Michigan, four times since 2015.Rootstocks can influence how trees respond to those conditions by affecting dormancy timing, cold tolerance and water use.

Some newer rootstocks developed through the Geneva program have shown reduced damage during false springs followed by hard freezes compared with older standards such as M9.Researchers are also turning to wild apple populations from central Asia, where domesticated apples originated, to expand genetic diversity and identify additional stress-resistance traits.

Experimental rootstocks are tested nationwide through a research collaboration known as NC-140, which evaluates orchard performance across multiple states. One test site operates at North Carolina State University’s Mountain Horticultural Crops Research Station near Asheville.

Mike Parker, a tree fruit extension specialist at North Carolina State University, said scientists monitor survival rates, trunk growth, fruit size and yields over many years before recommending new rootstocks to commercial growers.“When we put the replicated trials in multiple states, there’s things that we find out real quick, like that this rootstock is a dog and ain’t going to fly,” Parker said.

“We would much rather kill trees at our research station than have growers lose trees on their farm.”Parker has overseen the university’s rootstock evaluations since 1996 and, like Robinson, is approaching retirement.

Robinson said he is concerned that long-term agricultural breeding programs may struggle to attract younger researchers, many of whom prefer working on commercially visible fruit varieties rather than root systems that can take decades to develop.

He also expressed concern that funding agencies could eventually scale back support for long-duration breeding programs if policymakers conclude that existing rootstocks are sufficient for current industry needs.“I fear that they’ll say: ‘We have enough rootstocks, let’s just close down this effort,’” Robinson said.

“And for things that we’re facing right now, we probably have a good series of rootstocks available. But it’s these emerging problems, that you don’t really think of or didn’t plan for, that you might not be able to respond to if they shut down the program.”

Farmers in the country’s haor wetlands, where much of the summer Boro paddy is cultivated, have been rushing to harvest ripe crops amid relentless rain, thunderstorms and strong winds, with many wading through knee-deep water to salvage partially submerged fields.“We’re trying to save whatever is still standing,” said Mohammad Al Amin, a farmer in Sunamganj district, describing the urgency as floodwaters continued to rise.

Authorities said continuous rainfall, combined with water inflows from India’s Meghalaya and Assam regions, had sharply increased the risk of flash floods in vulnerable districts.Large areas of cropland in Sunamganj, Sylhet, Kishoreganj, Habiganj and Moulvibazar have already gone under water, according to local officials.

In several places, embankments were weakened or overtopped by sudden surges, allowing floodwaters to spill into paddy fields.Agriculture officials warned that even brief submergence at the current stage of crop maturity could significantly reduce yields, threatening both farmer incomes and national food security.

Heavy rainfall has also damaged vegetables and other crops, increasing concerns about supply shortages and possible price pressures in local markets.The Bangladesh Meteorological Department forecast further rainfall in the coming days, while disaster management officials warned that additional upstream flows could worsen flooding across the low-lying haor basin.

Farmers are also facing irrigation disruptions linked to diesel shortages following supply chain strains associated with the Iran conflict in the Middle East, adding to production challenges during the harvest season.

In urban areas, heavy rain has caused widespread waterlogging in the capital Dhaka and the port city of Chittagong, flooding roads, slowing traffic and straining already fragile drainage systems.Bangladesh, one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries, faces frequent river flooding and extreme weather events.

A 2015 World Bank Institute analysis estimated that around 3.5 million people are exposed to annual river floods, with scientists warning that climate change is intensifying such risks.

The country is the world’s third-largest rice producer and consumes most of its output domestically, but often turns to imports when floods or droughts disrupt supply.

The India Meteorological Department projected seasonal rainfall at 92% of the long-period average (LPA), below its benchmark range for normal precipitation. The monsoon, which typically spans June to September, provides nearly 70% of the country’s annual rainfall and is critical for farming and water supplies.

M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said the forecast reflects evolving climate conditions, while IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra noted that weak La Niña-like conditions are transitioning to neutral patterns, with a high likelihood of an El Nino developing after June.

El Niño events are typically associated with hotter and drier weather across South and Southeast Asia and have historically coincided with weaker monsoons in India, sometimes triggering drought conditions and crop losses.

However, Mohapatra said a potential positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole later in the season could partially offset rainfall deficits by strengthening precipitation in the latter half of the monsoon.The initial forecast of 92% of the LPA is the lowest in nearly three decades, with an updated outlook expected in late May.

Economists warned that weaker rainfall, combined with global energy and commodity disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, could weigh on India’s economic outlook. Aditi Nayar said the developments pose downside risks to GDP growth for the 2026–27 fiscal year and could push inflation above 4.5%, compared with 3.4% recorded in March.

The government has projected economic growth between 6.8% and 7.2% for the current fiscal year, but agricultural performance remains a key variable.Lower rainfall could also reshape trade flows.

India, the world’s largest exporter of rice and onions and a major sugar producer, may curb exports if crop yields fall. At the same time, reduced domestic oilseed output could increase reliance on imported edible oils from countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Brazil.

The monsoon outlook is closely watched by policymakers and markets alike, given its broad impact on rural incomes, food prices and overall economic stability.

Rwanda is tightening controls on land use and accelerating the adoption of urban farming technologies as it seeks to safeguard agricultural output in one of Africa’s most densely populated nations, where rapid urban expansion is placing increasing pressure on limited farmland.

In Kigali, construction activity continues to reshape the skyline, often encroaching on areas historically used for cultivation. The government has responded by introducing stricter monitoring mechanisms, including satellite mapping of agricultural zones, to prevent unauthorized development on farmland and forest areas.

Officials say these measures are part of a broader strategy to maintain food security as the country’s population is projected to reach 22 million in the coming years.The pressure on land is compounded by rising global costs of agricultural inputs, particularly fertilizers, which have increased since the onset of the Iran war.

These external shocks have reinforced concerns among policymakers about reliance on imported inputs and the vulnerability of domestic food systems to global disruptions.

Local accounts illustrate the impact of urban growth on traditional farming livelihoods. Mukarusini Purisikira, an 84-year-old farmer in Kigali, said her family lost much of its land to construction after returning from displacement during the 1994 genocide.

She now cultivates maize and sweet potatoes on a small plot, which she describes as barely sufficient for subsistence. Nearby construction sites continue to expand, underscoring the competition between housing demand and agricultural preservation.

To address these challenges, the government has designated approximately 22 percent of Kigali’s land for agricultural use under its master plan. Authorities have also introduced penalties for violations, including fines of up to $3,000 and prison sentences of up to six months for developers who encroach on protected farmland.

In some cases, buildings erected in restricted zones have been demolished, according to local officials, although individuals associated with such developments have declined to comment publicly.City authorities acknowledge the strong demand for housing but argue that long-term planning must account for rising food needs.

Emma-Claudine Ntirenganya, a spokeswoman for the mayor’s office, said agricultural productivity will need to increase even as available land shrinks. She noted that most of the food consumed in Kigali is sourced from other districts, where farmland is also under pressure from population growth and land conversion.

To improve compliance and transparency, the government has distributed maps identifying zones designated for construction and those reserved for agriculture. Officials say these tools are intended to guide both developers and communities in aligning with national land-use priorities.

Alongside regulatory measures, Rwanda is promoting alternative farming methods designed to maximize output on smaller plots. Urban agriculture initiatives in Kigali include rooftop greenhouses, vertical farming systems, and hydroponic techniques that use water rather than soil.

The city administration itself is establishing a greenhouse on its premises as part of efforts to demonstrate the viability of such approaches.Private sector actors are also contributing to this shift. Christian Irakoze, co-founder of Eza Neza, a company focused on vertical farming, said the model allows for scalable food production within limited spaces.

At sites visited in Kigali, vertical systems have been used to grow hundreds of plants along perimeter walls, supplying both households and local retailers. Irakoze said the approach reduces dependence on conventional inputs by incorporating locally available materials such as manure and volcanic sediment.

“We really have to find ways to find our own solutions,” Irakoze said, referring to the need to adapt farming practices to local conditions and reduce exposure to global supply disruptions.

Training initiatives led by agronomists are further supporting the transition to intensive, technology-driven agriculture. Richard Bucyana, one of the agronomists involved in these programs, said the focus is on equipping farmers with techniques that increase yields without requiring additional land.

Hydroponics and other controlled-environment systems are being promoted as viable options for urban and peri-urban settings.

Government officials and practitioners alike frame these efforts as part of a broader push toward self-sufficiency.

While Rwanda continues to rely on food imports and inter-district supply chains, the emphasis on innovation reflects a strategic attempt to buffer the domestic agricultural sector against external shocks and structural constraints.The combination of stricter land-use enforcement and investment in alternative farming methods highlights the balancing act facing policymakers.

As Kigali expands and demand for housing intensifies, preserving agricultural capacity remains central to maintaining food security in a country where arable land is both scarce and under increasing strain.

Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the war had caused the most severe disruption to global energy supply on record, with millions of barrels of oil production shut down due to Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“Instead, all roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth,” Georgieva told Reuters, adding that the IMF would cut its growth forecasts and raise inflation projections in its upcoming World Economic Outlook.

The conflict is expected to dominate discussions at next week’s IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, where policymakers will assess the economic fallout from the crisis.

The Fund had previously anticipated a modest upgrade to global growth projections before the escalation.Georgieva said global oil supply had fallen by about 13%, with knock-on effects extending beyond energy markets into supply chains for commodities such as fertilizers and helium.

Brent crude prices have risen to around $110 per barrel, reflecting tightening supply conditions.She warned that even a swift resolution would leave a lasting economic impact, while a prolonged conflict would deepen inflationary pressures and further dampen growth prospects.

The effects are expected to be uneven, with energy-importing countries facing the greatest strain. Many low-income economies lack the fiscal capacity to cushion rising costs, increasing risks of economic instability and social unrest.

Georgieva said some countries had already sought financial assistance from the IMF, which could expand existing lending programs to address urgent needs. She cautioned against broad energy subsidies, arguing they could exacerbate inflation.Energy exporters have also been affected.

Damage to production infrastructure has slowed output recovery in some countries, including Qatar, where restoration of natural gas capacity could take several years.The IMF is coordinating with other global institutions, including the International Energy Agency and the World Bank, to assess the broader implications of the conflict.

Georgieva also highlighted risks to food security, noting that disruptions to fertilizer supplies could trigger wider shortages if the conflict continues.

The World Food Programme has warned that millions could face acute hunger if conditions worsen.

The tender, issued on Saturday, covers 1.5 million tons for delivery via India’s west coast, with an additional 1 million tons planned through the east coast, according to a document published on the company’s website. Shipments are expected to depart load ports by June 14, while bids must be submitted by April 15.

India, the world’s largest importer of urea, routinely relies on global tenders to meet domestic demand, particularly ahead of the June monsoon season when sowing of crops such as rice, corn and soybeans begins.

Fertiliser availability is critical for the agriculture sector, which remains a key component of the country’s economy.The Gulf region accounts for between 20% and 30% of India’s urea imports and roughly half of its liquefied natural gas supplies, a key feedstock for domestic urea production, according to Aparna Sharma, additional secretary in the Department of Fertilisers.

Disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict have constrained gas availability, leading to a drop in local output last month, although supplies have improved in recent weeks, she said.

A Mumbai-based industry official said domestic urea production declined by around 600,000 to 700,000 tons per month during the disruption, with imports expected to partially offset the shortfall.

However, limited global surplus due to supply constraints in the Middle East may affect participation in the tender and influence pricing, the official added.In a previous tender in November, Indian Potash Limited secured urea at $418.40 per tonne on a cost-and-freight basis.

Prices have since risen amid the conflict, and market participants expect the current tender to serve as a pricing benchmark for other buyers in the global fertiliser market.

Farmers in India’s northern grain belt are increasingly worried that a distant conflict in the Gulf could disrupt fertiliser supplies and threaten crop yields, as tensions linked to the closure of a key maritime route reverberate through global commodity markets.

In Punjab, a state central to India’s wheat and rice production, growers say uncertainty over input availability has begun to overshadow routine agricultural planning. Gurvinder Singh, a 52-year-old farmer, said concerns over fertiliser access have intensified in recent weeks as global supply chains face strain.

“We are already struggling with profits,” Singh said. “If we don’t get fertilisers, there will be less yield. That will affect my entire family and the entire region, because we are completely dependent on agriculture.

”Singh’s remarks reflect broader anxieties among farmers who rely heavily on imported fertiliser components, many of which are linked to energy markets and international shipping routes. India is one of the world’s largest consumers of fertilisers, and any disruption in supply can have immediate implications for crop productivity.

The concerns follow Iran’s move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil and gas shipments, in response to strikes by the United States and Israel. The disruption has triggered volatility in energy markets, with ripple effects across industries dependent on fuel and petrochemical inputs.

Fertilisers, particularly nitrogen-based variants, are closely tied to natural gas prices, making them vulnerable to energy supply shocks. Analysts say any sustained increase in fuel costs or shipping disruptions could raise input prices or delay deliveries, affecting farmers during key planting cycles.

In Punjab, often referred to as India’s breadbasket, agriculture remains the primary source of income for millions. Farmers typically follow a rotation of wheat and rice crops, with fertiliser use playing a crucial role in maintaining yields. Any reduction in application due to shortages or high costs could directly impact output.

“We are praying this war stops because it will not spare us either,” Singh said, underscoring the sense of vulnerability among rural communities despite their geographic distance from the conflict.

The potential for supply disruptions comes at a time when many farmers are already facing margin pressures from fluctuating crop prices and rising input costs. Industry observers note that even short-term shortages can have lasting consequences, particularly if they coincide with critical stages of crop development.

India imports a significant portion of its fertiliser requirements, including key raw materials such as potash and phosphates. Supply chains for these inputs are globally integrated, often passing through major shipping routes in the Middle East. Any bottleneck in transit can lead to delays and price spikes in domestic markets.

Government officials have in the past taken steps to secure fertiliser supplies through strategic reserves and international agreements. However, traders say prolonged disruption in maritime logistics could test these buffers, especially if global competition for limited supplies intensifies.

The broader geopolitical situation has also raised concerns about inflationary pressures. Higher energy prices could increase transportation and production costs across sectors, feeding into food prices and complicating economic management.

For farmers like Singh, the uncertainty is immediate and personal. With planting decisions already underway, the availability and affordability of fertilisers will be a key determinant of the upcoming harvest.

As global markets react to developments in the Gulf, the impact is being felt far beyond the region, highlighting the interconnected nature of modern supply chains.

For India’s agricultural heartland, the stakes are tied not only to international diplomacy but also to the livelihoods of millions who depend on stable inputs to sustain production.