Farmers in the country’s haor wetlands, where much of the summer Boro paddy is cultivated, have been rushing to harvest ripe crops amid relentless rain, thunderstorms and strong winds, with many wading through knee-deep water to salvage partially submerged fields.“We’re trying to save whatever is still standing,” said Mohammad Al Amin, a farmer in Sunamganj district, describing the urgency as floodwaters continued to rise.

Authorities said continuous rainfall, combined with water inflows from India’s Meghalaya and Assam regions, had sharply increased the risk of flash floods in vulnerable districts.Large areas of cropland in Sunamganj, Sylhet, Kishoreganj, Habiganj and Moulvibazar have already gone under water, according to local officials.

In several places, embankments were weakened or overtopped by sudden surges, allowing floodwaters to spill into paddy fields.Agriculture officials warned that even brief submergence at the current stage of crop maturity could significantly reduce yields, threatening both farmer incomes and national food security.

Heavy rainfall has also damaged vegetables and other crops, increasing concerns about supply shortages and possible price pressures in local markets.The Bangladesh Meteorological Department forecast further rainfall in the coming days, while disaster management officials warned that additional upstream flows could worsen flooding across the low-lying haor basin.

Farmers are also facing irrigation disruptions linked to diesel shortages following supply chain strains associated with the Iran conflict in the Middle East, adding to production challenges during the harvest season.

In urban areas, heavy rain has caused widespread waterlogging in the capital Dhaka and the port city of Chittagong, flooding roads, slowing traffic and straining already fragile drainage systems.Bangladesh, one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries, faces frequent river flooding and extreme weather events.

A 2015 World Bank Institute analysis estimated that around 3.5 million people are exposed to annual river floods, with scientists warning that climate change is intensifying such risks.

The country is the world’s third-largest rice producer and consumes most of its output domestically, but often turns to imports when floods or droughts disrupt supply.

The India Meteorological Department projected seasonal rainfall at 92% of the long-period average (LPA), below its benchmark range for normal precipitation. The monsoon, which typically spans June to September, provides nearly 70% of the country’s annual rainfall and is critical for farming and water supplies.

M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said the forecast reflects evolving climate conditions, while IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra noted that weak La Niña-like conditions are transitioning to neutral patterns, with a high likelihood of an El Nino developing after June.

El Niño events are typically associated with hotter and drier weather across South and Southeast Asia and have historically coincided with weaker monsoons in India, sometimes triggering drought conditions and crop losses.

However, Mohapatra said a potential positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole later in the season could partially offset rainfall deficits by strengthening precipitation in the latter half of the monsoon.The initial forecast of 92% of the LPA is the lowest in nearly three decades, with an updated outlook expected in late May.

Economists warned that weaker rainfall, combined with global energy and commodity disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, could weigh on India’s economic outlook. Aditi Nayar said the developments pose downside risks to GDP growth for the 2026–27 fiscal year and could push inflation above 4.5%, compared with 3.4% recorded in March.

The government has projected economic growth between 6.8% and 7.2% for the current fiscal year, but agricultural performance remains a key variable.Lower rainfall could also reshape trade flows.

India, the world’s largest exporter of rice and onions and a major sugar producer, may curb exports if crop yields fall. At the same time, reduced domestic oilseed output could increase reliance on imported edible oils from countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Brazil.

The monsoon outlook is closely watched by policymakers and markets alike, given its broad impact on rural incomes, food prices and overall economic stability.

Rwanda is tightening controls on land use and accelerating the adoption of urban farming technologies as it seeks to safeguard agricultural output in one of Africa’s most densely populated nations, where rapid urban expansion is placing increasing pressure on limited farmland.

In Kigali, construction activity continues to reshape the skyline, often encroaching on areas historically used for cultivation. The government has responded by introducing stricter monitoring mechanisms, including satellite mapping of agricultural zones, to prevent unauthorized development on farmland and forest areas.

Officials say these measures are part of a broader strategy to maintain food security as the country’s population is projected to reach 22 million in the coming years.The pressure on land is compounded by rising global costs of agricultural inputs, particularly fertilizers, which have increased since the onset of the Iran war.

These external shocks have reinforced concerns among policymakers about reliance on imported inputs and the vulnerability of domestic food systems to global disruptions.

Local accounts illustrate the impact of urban growth on traditional farming livelihoods. Mukarusini Purisikira, an 84-year-old farmer in Kigali, said her family lost much of its land to construction after returning from displacement during the 1994 genocide.

She now cultivates maize and sweet potatoes on a small plot, which she describes as barely sufficient for subsistence. Nearby construction sites continue to expand, underscoring the competition between housing demand and agricultural preservation.

To address these challenges, the government has designated approximately 22 percent of Kigali’s land for agricultural use under its master plan. Authorities have also introduced penalties for violations, including fines of up to $3,000 and prison sentences of up to six months for developers who encroach on protected farmland.

In some cases, buildings erected in restricted zones have been demolished, according to local officials, although individuals associated with such developments have declined to comment publicly.City authorities acknowledge the strong demand for housing but argue that long-term planning must account for rising food needs.

Emma-Claudine Ntirenganya, a spokeswoman for the mayor’s office, said agricultural productivity will need to increase even as available land shrinks. She noted that most of the food consumed in Kigali is sourced from other districts, where farmland is also under pressure from population growth and land conversion.

To improve compliance and transparency, the government has distributed maps identifying zones designated for construction and those reserved for agriculture. Officials say these tools are intended to guide both developers and communities in aligning with national land-use priorities.

Alongside regulatory measures, Rwanda is promoting alternative farming methods designed to maximize output on smaller plots. Urban agriculture initiatives in Kigali include rooftop greenhouses, vertical farming systems, and hydroponic techniques that use water rather than soil.

The city administration itself is establishing a greenhouse on its premises as part of efforts to demonstrate the viability of such approaches.Private sector actors are also contributing to this shift. Christian Irakoze, co-founder of Eza Neza, a company focused on vertical farming, said the model allows for scalable food production within limited spaces.

At sites visited in Kigali, vertical systems have been used to grow hundreds of plants along perimeter walls, supplying both households and local retailers. Irakoze said the approach reduces dependence on conventional inputs by incorporating locally available materials such as manure and volcanic sediment.

“We really have to find ways to find our own solutions,” Irakoze said, referring to the need to adapt farming practices to local conditions and reduce exposure to global supply disruptions.

Training initiatives led by agronomists are further supporting the transition to intensive, technology-driven agriculture. Richard Bucyana, one of the agronomists involved in these programs, said the focus is on equipping farmers with techniques that increase yields without requiring additional land.

Hydroponics and other controlled-environment systems are being promoted as viable options for urban and peri-urban settings.

Government officials and practitioners alike frame these efforts as part of a broader push toward self-sufficiency.

While Rwanda continues to rely on food imports and inter-district supply chains, the emphasis on innovation reflects a strategic attempt to buffer the domestic agricultural sector against external shocks and structural constraints.The combination of stricter land-use enforcement and investment in alternative farming methods highlights the balancing act facing policymakers.

As Kigali expands and demand for housing intensifies, preserving agricultural capacity remains central to maintaining food security in a country where arable land is both scarce and under increasing strain.

Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the war had caused the most severe disruption to global energy supply on record, with millions of barrels of oil production shut down due to Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“Instead, all roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth,” Georgieva told Reuters, adding that the IMF would cut its growth forecasts and raise inflation projections in its upcoming World Economic Outlook.

The conflict is expected to dominate discussions at next week’s IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, where policymakers will assess the economic fallout from the crisis.

The Fund had previously anticipated a modest upgrade to global growth projections before the escalation.Georgieva said global oil supply had fallen by about 13%, with knock-on effects extending beyond energy markets into supply chains for commodities such as fertilizers and helium.

Brent crude prices have risen to around $110 per barrel, reflecting tightening supply conditions.She warned that even a swift resolution would leave a lasting economic impact, while a prolonged conflict would deepen inflationary pressures and further dampen growth prospects.

The effects are expected to be uneven, with energy-importing countries facing the greatest strain. Many low-income economies lack the fiscal capacity to cushion rising costs, increasing risks of economic instability and social unrest.

Georgieva said some countries had already sought financial assistance from the IMF, which could expand existing lending programs to address urgent needs. She cautioned against broad energy subsidies, arguing they could exacerbate inflation.Energy exporters have also been affected.

Damage to production infrastructure has slowed output recovery in some countries, including Qatar, where restoration of natural gas capacity could take several years.The IMF is coordinating with other global institutions, including the International Energy Agency and the World Bank, to assess the broader implications of the conflict.

Georgieva also highlighted risks to food security, noting that disruptions to fertilizer supplies could trigger wider shortages if the conflict continues.

The World Food Programme has warned that millions could face acute hunger if conditions worsen.

The tender, issued on Saturday, covers 1.5 million tons for delivery via India’s west coast, with an additional 1 million tons planned through the east coast, according to a document published on the company’s website. Shipments are expected to depart load ports by June 14, while bids must be submitted by April 15.

India, the world’s largest importer of urea, routinely relies on global tenders to meet domestic demand, particularly ahead of the June monsoon season when sowing of crops such as rice, corn and soybeans begins.

Fertiliser availability is critical for the agriculture sector, which remains a key component of the country’s economy.The Gulf region accounts for between 20% and 30% of India’s urea imports and roughly half of its liquefied natural gas supplies, a key feedstock for domestic urea production, according to Aparna Sharma, additional secretary in the Department of Fertilisers.

Disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict have constrained gas availability, leading to a drop in local output last month, although supplies have improved in recent weeks, she said.

A Mumbai-based industry official said domestic urea production declined by around 600,000 to 700,000 tons per month during the disruption, with imports expected to partially offset the shortfall.

However, limited global surplus due to supply constraints in the Middle East may affect participation in the tender and influence pricing, the official added.In a previous tender in November, Indian Potash Limited secured urea at $418.40 per tonne on a cost-and-freight basis.

Prices have since risen amid the conflict, and market participants expect the current tender to serve as a pricing benchmark for other buyers in the global fertiliser market.

Farmers in India’s northern grain belt are increasingly worried that a distant conflict in the Gulf could disrupt fertiliser supplies and threaten crop yields, as tensions linked to the closure of a key maritime route reverberate through global commodity markets.

In Punjab, a state central to India’s wheat and rice production, growers say uncertainty over input availability has begun to overshadow routine agricultural planning. Gurvinder Singh, a 52-year-old farmer, said concerns over fertiliser access have intensified in recent weeks as global supply chains face strain.

“We are already struggling with profits,” Singh said. “If we don’t get fertilisers, there will be less yield. That will affect my entire family and the entire region, because we are completely dependent on agriculture.

”Singh’s remarks reflect broader anxieties among farmers who rely heavily on imported fertiliser components, many of which are linked to energy markets and international shipping routes. India is one of the world’s largest consumers of fertilisers, and any disruption in supply can have immediate implications for crop productivity.

The concerns follow Iran’s move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil and gas shipments, in response to strikes by the United States and Israel. The disruption has triggered volatility in energy markets, with ripple effects across industries dependent on fuel and petrochemical inputs.

Fertilisers, particularly nitrogen-based variants, are closely tied to natural gas prices, making them vulnerable to energy supply shocks. Analysts say any sustained increase in fuel costs or shipping disruptions could raise input prices or delay deliveries, affecting farmers during key planting cycles.

In Punjab, often referred to as India’s breadbasket, agriculture remains the primary source of income for millions. Farmers typically follow a rotation of wheat and rice crops, with fertiliser use playing a crucial role in maintaining yields. Any reduction in application due to shortages or high costs could directly impact output.

“We are praying this war stops because it will not spare us either,” Singh said, underscoring the sense of vulnerability among rural communities despite their geographic distance from the conflict.

The potential for supply disruptions comes at a time when many farmers are already facing margin pressures from fluctuating crop prices and rising input costs. Industry observers note that even short-term shortages can have lasting consequences, particularly if they coincide with critical stages of crop development.

India imports a significant portion of its fertiliser requirements, including key raw materials such as potash and phosphates. Supply chains for these inputs are globally integrated, often passing through major shipping routes in the Middle East. Any bottleneck in transit can lead to delays and price spikes in domestic markets.

Government officials have in the past taken steps to secure fertiliser supplies through strategic reserves and international agreements. However, traders say prolonged disruption in maritime logistics could test these buffers, especially if global competition for limited supplies intensifies.

The broader geopolitical situation has also raised concerns about inflationary pressures. Higher energy prices could increase transportation and production costs across sectors, feeding into food prices and complicating economic management.

For farmers like Singh, the uncertainty is immediate and personal. With planting decisions already underway, the availability and affordability of fertilisers will be a key determinant of the upcoming harvest.

As global markets react to developments in the Gulf, the impact is being felt far beyond the region, highlighting the interconnected nature of modern supply chains.

For India’s agricultural heartland, the stakes are tied not only to international diplomacy but also to the livelihoods of millions who depend on stable inputs to sustain production.

Brazilian researchers are developing new coffee hybrids by blending genetic material from rare and non-commercial species in an effort to protect global arabica production from the growing impact of climate change.

At the Campinas Agronomy Institute in São Paulo state, agronomist Oliveiro Guerreiro Filho tends to a diverse collection of coffee plants that contrasts sharply with the uniform plantations typical of Brazil’s commercial farms. The experimental plots include about 15 lesser-known species such as racemosa, liberica and stenophylla, each offering genetic traits that scientists hope can strengthen the resilience of arabica, the world’s most widely consumed coffee variety.”

Researchers warn that arabica crops are particularly vulnerable to rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns. A report released this week by Rabobank said climate change could render about 20% of current arabica-growing areas unsuitable by 2050, with Brazil, the world’s largest producer, expected to see declining output.

To address these risks, scientists are attempting to introduce hardier genetic traits from wild and underutilized species into arabica plants. The goal is to develop hybrids that can withstand drought, heat, pests and diseases while maintaining the flavor and yield characteristics that make arabica dominant in global markets.“We’ve been working at the institute for many years to transfer drought tolerance genes from the racemosa species to arabica,” Guerreiro Filho said. “We’re trying to create drought-tolerant arabica varieties.

The process is complex and time-intensive. Researchers must cross-breed different species, cultivate hybrid plants, and subject them to harsh environmental conditions to identify those with the strongest resilience. Guerreiro Filho said the full development cycle can take between 20 and 30 years before a viable variety is ready for commercial use.

Some of the traits being targeted are already evident in the wild species. Liberica, for example, has drawn attention from farmers in Southeast Asia for its ability to tolerate high temperatures and dry conditions. Small-scale growers in Indonesia and Malaysia have begun cultivating the species experimentally to assess its performance under climate stress.”

Liberica can tolerate heat and high temperature environments very well, and it is disease-resistant,” said Jason Liew, founder of My Liberica, a coffee plantation in Malaysia’s Johor state.

While such characteristics are valuable, liberica and other non-arabica species have limited commercial appeal due to lower yields or different flavor profiles. Brazilian researchers are therefore focused on transferring these beneficial traits into arabica, rather than replacing it entirely.

Early results from hybridization efforts suggest potential gains in both resilience and crop protection. Arabica plants cross-bred with liberica have shown increased resistance to coffee rust, a fungal disease that has devastated crops in several producing regions. Meanwhile, hybrids incorporating racemosa genetics appear better able to withstand attacks from coffee leaf miner larvae, a common agricultural pest.

Scientists say these advances are critical given arabica’s narrow genetic base, which limits its natural ability to adapt to environmental changes. Expanding that genetic diversity is seen as a key strategy for sustaining long-term production.“Working with alternative species of coffee is vital because arabica has an extremely narrow genetic base,” said Rodolfo Oliveira, head of the coffee unit at Brazil’s state research agency Embrapa. “This makes it highly vulnerable to pests, diseases, and climate change.

”The research also reflects broader shifts in the global coffee sector, where producers are increasingly grappling with the economic and environmental consequences of climate volatility. Reduced yields, rising production costs and shifting cultivation zones are already affecting supply chains, with implications for prices and market stability.

Brazil’s efforts to develop more resilient coffee varieties may play a central role in shaping the future of the industry. As the leading global producer and exporter, changes in its output have significant ripple effects across international markets.

At the same time, the long timelines required for developing new hybrids mean that current research will only begin to deliver results years from now. Until then, farmers remain exposed to immediate climate risks, underscoring the urgency of both scientific innovation and adaptive farming practices.

Fisherman Ibrahima Mar, 55, said dwindling catches have upended a way of life sustained for generations in Rufisque, near Dakar. He described a steady depletion of fish stocks that has left traditional fishers struggling to survive. “The fish have been taken from our path,” he said, pointing to worsening conditions in recent years.

Analysts attribute the decline to a combination of illegal practices and large-scale industrial operations. Bassirou Diarra, Senegal country manager for the Environmental Justice Foundation, said vessels engaged in bottom trawling and other activities often operate under Senegalese flags but are linked to foreign ownership, including European and Asian interests.

“These practices not only reduce fish availability for local consumption but also limit economic returns to the country,” Diarra said, citing issues such as unauthorized fishing in protected areas, non-compliant equipment and lax licensing.

A 2025 report by the Environmental Justice Foundation estimated that 57% of exploited fish populations in Senegal are in a state of collapse, underscoring the scale of the crisis.

The decline has had ripple effects across coastal economies. According to census data, more than 82,000 people in Senegal depend on fishing, accounting for about 2% of the workforce. Ancillary sectors such as fish processing, transport and retail have also been affected.

Local fishing leaders say productivity has sharply declined. Mamadou Diouf Sene, head of the Rufisque Fishing Wharf Revenue Commission, said it now takes up to seven months to catch what previously required two months, reflecting the strain on marine resources.

The economic pressure has contributed to increased migration attempts, with some fishermen undertaking dangerous journeys to Europe in traditional wooden boats known as pirogues. Community members say these journeys often end in tragedy.

Environmental factors have compounded the problem. Researchers note that climate change is shifting small pelagic species, such as sardinella and horse mackerel, northward, further reducing local availability.

Authorities acknowledge enforcement challenges. Cheikh Salla Ndiaye of Senegal’s Directorate of Fisheries Protection and Surveillance said monitoring vast maritime areas remains difficult despite support from security forces.

Efforts to improve oversight are underway, with environmental groups such as Greenpeace introducing technologies including satellite tracking and mobile reporting tools to help identify illegal activity at sea.

The crisis has raised concerns about long-term food security and economic stability in Senegal, where fish remains a central component of both diet and cultural identity.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks international prices of a basket of widely traded food commodities, averaged 128.5 points in March, up 2.4% from a revised February level, according to the agency.

The increase reflects upward pressure in global food markets, though the FAO did not specify individual commodity drivers in its summary release.

In a separate report, the FAO slightly raised its forecast for global cereal production in 2025 to a record 3.036 billion metric tons, representing a 5.8% increase compared with the previous year.The updated outlook suggests improved supply prospects for staple crops, even as price trends point to continued volatility in international food markets.

Speaking at the Egypt Energy Show 2026 in Cairo, Sisi said only Trump had the capacity to end the conflict in the Gulf region, appealing directly for U.S. leadership to prevent further escalation.

“I tell President Trump: nobody can stop the war in our region in the Gulf but you,” Sisi said. “Please help us stop the war. You are capable of doing so.”

Sisi warned that continued targeting of oil production facilities and refineries could trigger simultaneous supply disruptions and price surges, with consequences yet to be fully realised.

He said concerns among market observers that oil could exceed $200 a barrel were credible.“I fear that targeting energy facilities, whether production or refineries, will have very serious repercussions for the global economy and fuel prices,” he said.

The Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime chokepoint that previously handled about a fifth of global oil flows, has been disrupted amid the conflict, raising concerns over sustained supply constraints.

Beyond energy markets, Sisi highlighted risks to global food security, citing potential disruptions to fertiliser exports that could drive up agricultural costs and strain supply chains.

“Wealthy countries might be able to absorb this, but for middle-income and fragile economies, it could have a very, very severe impact on their stability,” he said.

Egypt, a longstanding recipient of U.S. military aid and Gulf financial support, has condemned Iranian attacks on Gulf Arab states while advocating diplomatic efforts to avoid a broader regional war.

Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary-General Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi said Iranian actions, including attacks on energy infrastructure and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, constituted a violation of international law and a direct threat to global energy security.

Addressing the conference virtually, he urged the international community to safeguard maritime corridors, as GCC member states Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain face ongoing drone and missile attacks.

Sisi also referenced Trump’s role in ending the Gaza war, noting that the U.S. president had been instrumental in securing a ceasefire agreement reached in Sharm el-Sheikh in November.