Chefs and restaurant operators told Reuters that soaring air freight costs and reduced tourist arrivals were squeezing margins, forcing businesses to scale back operations and rethink sourcing strategies in a city where imported ingredients are central to much of its high-end culinary identity.

At Mexican restaurant Lila Molino in Dubai’s Alserkal Avenue district, chef Shaw Lash said staples such as avocados and tomatillos essential to her menu have become harder to source and significantly more expensive since the conflict escalated in late February.

“The reality is cargo has gotten more expensive, gas prices have gone up, the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked,” Lash said. “This is really creating a problem for us as far as our supply.”Lash said she had reduced production, cut payroll costs and shifted toward smaller ingredient purchases while focusing more on grocery products and take-home fajita kits, which have helped offset weaker dine-in demand.

The UAE imports more than 80% of its food consumption, making it highly vulnerable to disruptions in maritime trade. Although a ceasefire between the United States, Israel and Iran took effect on April 8, the Strait of Hormuz through which much of the region’s imports pass remains effectively closed, creating delays and pushing transport costs sharply higher.

Dubai’s full-service restaurant market was valued at about $9.5 billion last year, according to market researcher Mordor Intelligence, which had projected 20% growth for 2026 before the war began. Industry operators now say those expectations are under pressure.

A survey by Juniper Strategy and the Global Restaurant Investment Forum found UAE foodservice operators reported an average 27% drop in demand compared with a year earlier, while supplier cost increases averaged 13%. The study covered 30 industry leaders operating around 400 restaurants between April 1 and April 8.

Tourist-heavy districts and business zones were under the greatest pressure, while restaurants in residential neighborhoods showed stronger resilience and, in some cases, growth.The Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism said some operators were managing a “period of disrupted footfall” and adapting through promotions, alternative service formats and community-driven offers to maintain customer traffic.

At fusion restaurant Jun’s Dubai, chef Kelvin Cheung said sourcing imported seafood such as Norwegian scallops and premium Japanese fish had become significantly more expensive because sea routes were no longer reliable.“Your only option was then to fly air freight, which would increase our costs by about thirty, thirty-five percent,” he said.

Cheung has shifted toward locally sourced fish and launched a six-course menu priced at 225 dirhams ($61) to maintain affordability while preserving customer traffic. He said the restaurant had retained all staff despite the slowdown.Air freight rates on some routes have risen by as much as 70%, driven by higher jet fuel prices and disruptions to oil shipments from the Gulf.

Tourism, a major driver of spending in Dubai’s luxury retail and dining sectors, has also weakened.“That massive influx of tourists who provide that extra boost of economy, of spend, across all industries is what we’re missing now,” Cheung said.

Food writer Courtney Brandt said the war had intensified structural weaknesses already present in Dubai’s restaurant market, including high fixed costs, dependence on tourism and oversupply in the premium dining segment.“We were due for a correction,” she said, noting that international restaurant groups with stronger financial backing may weather the downturn more easily than independent operators.

Some fine-dining restaurants, including venues inside the luxury Atlantis hotels on Dubai’s Palm Jumeirah, have temporarily closed for refurbishment, while others continue to launch new concepts, suggesting confidence in a medium-term recovery.Operators say business has started to improve gradually since the ceasefire and the reopening of schools, with signs of consumer confidence slowly returning across the city.

At a crowded platform in Anand Vihar railway station in Delhi, 35-year-old Raju Prasad and his family prepare to leave the capital after months of struggling to secure basic necessities. Having migrated from Uttar Pradesh less than a year ago in search of work, Prasad now says the rising cost of food and an acute shortage of cooking fuel have made it impossible for his family to survive in the city.

Prasad, who worked as a ragpicker alongside his wife, said the family earned about 500 rupees per day through long hours of manual labour. However, the depletion of their cooking gas supply nearly two weeks ago marked a turning point. With no access to affordable replacements and limited alternatives, their savings were quickly exhausted. He said the family initially resorted to collecting firewood, but even that option has since run out, forcing them to return to their village in Gorakhpur.

The situation reflects a broader trend unfolding across urban centres in India, where supply disruptions linked to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven up fuel prices and reduced availability. The shortage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), widely used for cooking in urban households and small businesses, has had cascading effects on food access and affordability, particularly among migrant workers and low-income groups.

In the same railway station, 25-year-old Sarfaraz, a construction worker from Bihar, waits for funds from his family to purchase a ticket home. Employed at the construction site of the Jewar Noida International Airport, he said his daily wage of around 550 rupees was no longer sufficient to cover rising living costs. His gas supply ran out nearly 20 days ago, and he has been unable to secure a replacement due to both shortages and sharply inflated prices in informal markets.

Sarfaraz said the cost of a gas cylinder has increased from approximately 900 rupees to as high as 4,500 rupees in the black market, placing it beyond reach for most daily wage earners. He added that food prices outside have also doubled, limiting access to even basic meals. “I’ve not had proper food for the past two days,” he said, noting that his savings had been depleted.

Urban food systems in cities such as Delhi rely heavily on a dense network of small eateries, roadside vendors, and informal food services that depend on LPG for daily operations. The shortage has disrupted these networks, leading to closures, reduced menus, and higher prices. This has disproportionately affected migrant workers, students, and other low-income residents who depend on inexpensive prepared food rather than home cooking.Restaurant owners report significant operational challenges.

Anil, who has managed a small restaurant in Nehru Place for three decades, said he has never experienced a similar disruption. He confirmed that rising input costs have forced him to increase menu prices while removing several items. He has also reverted to traditional cooking methods using a chulha, or open-fire stove, which is slower and less efficient.

Anil added that declining customer footfall and higher operational costs are putting pressure on his business and workforce. With around 10 employees dependent on the establishment, he said prolonged disruption could lead to job losses if conditions do not improve.

Government representatives acknowledge supply constraints but maintain that efforts are underway to stabilize distribution. Praveen Shankar Kapoor, spokesperson for the Bharatiya Janata Party in Delhi, said authorities are working to address shortages in both domestic and commercial LPG supply chains. He stated that while consumers using formal booking systems are receiving cylinders, smaller users particularly those relying on 5kg cylinders are facing greater challenges.

Kapoor noted that migrant workers and students often fall outside the formal distribution framework, as they are typically not registered under domestic gas consumer schemes. This has left them dependent on informal markets where prices have surged.Students have also reported significant disruption.

At Jamia Millia Islamia, many students from low-income backgrounds depend on shared accommodation and affordable canteen services.

Farheen Naaz, a media student from West Bengal, said she has not had access to cooking gas for 10 days and has been skipping meals as a result. She added that several university canteens have shut down, while those still operating have raised prices.

Naaz said the situation is affecting the health of students, particularly those living in shared housing arrangements. In her accommodation, which houses around 50 women, residents are facing similar constraints due to both fuel shortages and rising food costs.

The shortage has also affected markets for alternative cooking solutions. Retailers report a sharp increase in demand for electric appliances such as induction cooktops and rice cookers. Ahmad, a wholesale trader at ZamZam Crockery, said prices for induction stoves have risen from around 1,300 rupees to 5,000 rupees. He attributed the increase to upstream supply constraints and higher input costs, adding that prices for many electrical cooking appliances have risen significantly.

The convergence of fuel shortages, rising food prices, and limited access to affordable alternatives has triggered a reverse migration pattern in urban centres. Migrant workers, who form a substantial portion of the informal workforce in cities like Delhi, are increasingly returning to their home villages where food access is relatively more secure and traditional cooking methods remain viable.

At railway stations, scenes of families departing with limited belongings have become more frequent. For many, the decision to leave reflects not only economic strain but also the breakdown of essential urban support systems that sustain daily life for low-income populations.

As Sarfaraz continues to wait for funds to complete his journey home, he checks his phone repeatedly, hoping to join others boarding trains out of the city. His situation underscores the immediate pressures faced by migrant workers, whose livelihoods are closely tied to volatile urban conditions and limited social safety nets.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks international prices of a basket of widely traded food commodities, averaged 128.5 points in March, up 2.4% from a revised February level, according to the agency.

The increase reflects upward pressure in global food markets, though the FAO did not specify individual commodity drivers in its summary release.

In a separate report, the FAO slightly raised its forecast for global cereal production in 2025 to a record 3.036 billion metric tons, representing a 5.8% increase compared with the previous year.The updated outlook suggests improved supply prospects for staple crops, even as price trends point to continued volatility in international food markets.