Flight bookings to Spain jumped 32% year-on-year as of April 2, with hotel searches up 28%, data from travel marketing firm Sojern showed. Portugal recorded a 21% increase in flight bookings and a 16% rise in hotel searches over the same period.

The surge reflects a broader reallocation of global travel demand, with tourists avoiding regions impacted by the ongoing Iran war and related instability.

Travel analytics company Mabrian reported a pullback in demand for Middle Eastern destinations alongside increased interest in southern European markets, with Spain emerging as the primary beneficiary.Destinations in the eastern Mediterranean have been particularly affected.

Cyprus has experienced a wave of cancellations following a drone strike on a British air base in early March, underscoring the spillover effects of the conflict on regional tourism.Industry group Exceltur has raised its outlook for Spain’s tourism sector since the conflict began on Feb. 28, projecting real growth of 2.5% in 2026, up from an earlier estimate of 2.4%.

The sector is expected to generate 227 billion euros ($267 billion), with diverted tourist flows contributing an estimated additional 4.2 billion euros.“Summer holidays are planned months in advance.

As destinations that attract large numbers of tourists are affected by the conflict, a significant part of this safe-haven effect is already materializing,” said Oscar Perelli, vice president of Exceltur.Spain’s tourism sector, a key driver of economic growth, continues to outperform many European peers.

The country received a record 97 million visitors last year, reinforcing its position as one of the world’s most visited destinations.Hotel association Cehat expects occupancy rates to rise by up to 3% during the summer, with increased demand for locations perceived as distant from conflict zones, including the Canary Islands.

However, the group cautioned that overall travel volumes could still be affected by broader economic and geopolitical uncertainties.Airlines have responded by increasing capacity, with seat availability rising nearly 6% year-on-year in April, according to Spain’s tourism agency Turespaña, particularly on routes from the United States and Britain.

Despite the positive outlook, industry officials warned that escalating risks tied to energy markets and transport routes could disrupt forecasts. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global oil and gas shipments, remains a key variable, with ongoing disruptions during the Iran conflict raising concerns over fuel costs and long-haul travel reliability.

“It will all depend on what happens in Hormuz, because all these forecasts could go out the window,” said Jorge Marichal, president of Cehat.