A proposed genetically modified mustard crop in Canada is intensifying divisions between farmers seeking climate resilience and an export-dependent industry wary of losing premium global markets that demand non-GMO produce.

Dallas Leduc, a fourth-generation farmer in Saskatchewan, sees promise in the new genetically modified mustard hybrid being developed by BASF. Farming more than 10,000 acres in a region marked by sandy soils and persistent drought stress, Leduc said the crop could improve yields and profitability in an increasingly challenging environment.

He described the innovation as a practical tool to sustain farm incomes under harsh climatic conditions.The new crop, designed to produce oil similar to canola while tolerating herbicides, is expected to be more resilient in arid conditions where traditional canola often fails. BASF aims to secure regulatory approval in the United States as early as next year, with Canadian commercialization expected to follow within a few years.

However, the technology has drawn strong opposition from mustard growers and exporters who rely on strict non-GMO standards in key overseas markets. Trent Dewar, a Saskatchewan farmer producing specialty mustard for international buyers, warned that even minimal contamination from genetically modified crops could undermine Canada’s reputation as a reliable supplier of non-GMO mustard.

Mustard exports, valued at around $150 million annually, are small compared to Canada’s canola sector, which generates approximately $8.9 billion. Yet for producers in semi-arid regions such as Palliser’s Triangle, mustard has historically provided a stable income where other crops struggle.

Industry representatives say the risk of cross-contamination is significant because the genetically modified hybrid and traditional mustard belong to the same species, Brassica juncea. This allows pollen from one crop to fertilize the other, raising concerns about unintended mixing through wind or pollinators.

Norm Hall, chair of Sask Mustard, said the industry is lobbying federal authorities to block the introduction of the new crop, citing the potential impact on export markets. He described resistance among growers as widespread, noting that many had not anticipated such a development being considered.

France, which imports roughly half of its mustard seed from Canada, maintains strict non-GMO standards. Christophe Planes, sales and marketing director at French processor Reine de Dijon, said the company systematically tests all supplies to ensure compliance. He indicated that the presence of genetically modified traces, even at low levels, could disrupt sourcing decisions.

Contracts reviewed by Reuters show that many buyers require non-GMO certification, although specific tolerance thresholds are often determined by individual purchasers. Industry participants say this ambiguity adds to uncertainty about how markets would respond if contamination were detected.

Canada’s mustard sector remains sensitive to historical precedent. In 2009, traces of a genetically modified flax variety known as Triffid were found in European shipments, leading to a collapse in exports that have yet to fully recover. Growers and exporters say this episode underscores the risks associated with introducing genetically modified crops into supply chains reliant on strict quality standards.

Peter Gorski of Broadgrain, which markets Canadian specialty crops globally, said international buyers view contamination risks with extreme caution. He compared the potential presence of GMO material in mustard shipments to a foreign object in food products, reflecting the severity of market reactions.

BASF, for its part, maintains that safeguards can be implemented to prevent cross-contamination. Brent Collins, who heads the company’s seeds and traits division in Canada, described the hybrid as a necessary innovation that could expand canola production into new areas and meet growing global demand for vegetable oils.

The company estimates that up to two million acres could eventually be cultivated with the hybrid crop across Canada and the United States, particularly in regions where existing oilseed varieties perform poorly. Collins said BASF is working to address growers’ concerns and ensure coexistence between genetically modified and traditional crops.

Industry groups remain unconvinced. Rick Mitzel, executive director of Sask Mustard, said coexistence is not feasible given the biological characteristics of the plant. He argued that even small-scale adoption could jeopardize the integrity of non-GMO supply chains.

The debate reflects broader tensions between technological innovation and market access in global agriculture. While genetically modified crops can enhance productivity and resilience, their acceptance varies widely across regions, particularly in Europe, where regulatory frameworks and consumer preferences remain restrictive.

The stakes extend beyond Canadian producers. Kacy Gehring of Mountain States Oilseeds in Idaho said uncertainty surrounding GMO contamination could discourage farmers from growing mustard altogether, potentially affecting global supply chains and food manufacturing.

Despite the concerns, some farmers remain committed to adopting the new technology. Leduc acknowledged the risks but said economic pressures leave little choice. Operating in a region increasingly affected by drought and climate variability, he said access to more resilient crops could be critical to maintaining viability.

The divide between proponents and opponents has widened as commercialization approaches, with industry meetings reflecting growing urgency among traditional mustard stakeholders.

Calls for legal and political action have intensified, although representatives acknowledge that regulatory frameworks in Canada do not typically consider market impacts when approving new crop technologies.

Tokyo — Business sentiment among Japanese firms improved in the three months to March while corporate inflation expectations rose to record levels, a closely watched survey showed on Wednesday, strengthening the case for a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, even as escalating fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict darken the economic outlook.

The central bank’s quarterly “tankan” survey indicated that large manufacturers’ sentiment index rose to +17 in March, slightly above market forecasts of +16 and up from +16 in December, marking its highest level since December 2021.

The improvement extended a fourth consecutive quarter of gains, suggesting that parts of Japan’s industrial sector have continued to recover despite mounting global uncertainties.

Sentiment among large non-manufacturers remained robust, with the index holding steady at +36, surpassing a median market forecast of +33. The strength in the services sector was supported by rising profits from price increases and a continued recovery in inbound tourism, according to the survey data.

A Bank of Japan official said resilient demand for artificial intelligence-related semiconductors and easing uncertainty over U.S. trade policy helped offset pressures from higher input costs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

At the same time, the survey highlighted growing inflationary pressures within the corporate sector. Companies reported rising expectations for future price increases, reflecting the impact of higher fuel and raw material costs.

Analysts said this trend could provide additional justification for the central bank to move toward policy normalisation after years of ultra-loose monetary settings.Mari Iwashita, executive rates strategist at Nomura Securities, said the survey underscored mounting inflation risks driven by external shocks.

She noted that companies facing surging energy costs may increasingly pass those expenses on to consumers, reinforcing upward pressure on prices.The data comes at a critical juncture for the Bank of Japan, which is weighing whether to raise interest rates as early as this month.

Market participants have been closely monitoring the tankan survey as a key gauge of corporate sentiment and investment plans.Despite the relatively upbeat current conditions, the survey revealed growing caution among firms about the near-term outlook.

Both manufacturers and non-manufacturers expect business conditions to deteriorate over the next three months, reflecting concerns about the economic fallout from the Iran conflict and its impact on energy markets.

The ongoing conflict has driven up global fuel costs, increasing operational expenses for Japanese companies that rely heavily on imported energy. The resulting squeeze on margins is expected to weigh on profitability, particularly for industries with limited pricing power.

Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, said the strength of the survey could still encourage policymakers to act. He noted that firms appeared to be absorbing the energy shock for now, suggesting that underlying economic conditions remain stable enough to support a rate hike in the near term.

Capital expenditure plans among large firms also pointed to cautious optimism. Companies expect to increase investment by 3.3% in the fiscal year 2026, exceeding a median market forecast of a 3.0% rise.

The planned increase suggests that firms are continuing to invest in growth despite heightened uncertainty.The survey period, which ran from February 26 to March 31, captured responses from roughly 70% of firms by March 12, shortly after the escalation of hostilities involving the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran on February 28.

This timing indicates that early assessments of the conflict’s economic impact are already being reflected in corporate sentiment.Economists cautioned that the positive momentum seen in the survey may not be sustained if external conditions worsen.

Stefan Angrick said that while a weak yen and subdued wage growth have supported corporate margins, broader economic challenges remain.He noted that export growth could weaken amid slowing global demand, while domestic consumption may remain constrained by modest income gains.

Over time, these factors could weigh on corporate profits and sentiment, complicating the central bank’s policy decisions.The survey underscores the delicate balance facing policymakers as they navigate between emerging inflationary pressures and risks to economic growth.

While improving sentiment and rising prices strengthen the case for tightening monetary policy, the uncertain global environment, particularly developments in the Middle East, continues to pose significant challenges for Japan’s export-driven economy.

The HSBC flash India Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, compiled by S&P Global, fell to 56.5 from February’s 58.9, missing expectations in a Reuters poll and marking the sharpest slowdown in 18 months. While readings above 50 indicate expansion, the drop signalled a loss of momentum at the end of the fiscal year.

Manufacturing slowdown deepensThe manufacturing sector bore the brunt of the slowdown, with its PMI declining to a 4-1/2-year low of 53.8 from 56.9. Factory output growth weakened to its softest pace since August 2021, reflecting heightened uncertainty and subdued consumer demand.

The services sector, which makes up the bulk of India’s economy, also eased, with its PMI slipping to 57.2 from 58.1.Cost pressures intensifyInput costs rose at their fastest pace since June 2022, driven by higher prices for oil, energy, food, metals and chemicals.

Firms responded by increasing selling prices at the quickest rate in seven months, though some absorbed costs by compressing margins.India’s heavy reliance on imported energy has amplified the impact.

As the world’s third-largest oil importer, it sources about 90% of its crude and nearly half of its natural gas from overseas, making it vulnerable to price shocks linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have risen more than 40% since the conflict began.

External demand offers supportDespite weakening domestic demand, international orders rose to their highest level since the sub-index was introduced in 2014, with businesses reporting increased demand from Asia, Europe, the Americas and the Middle East.

Business confidence improved to its strongest level since September 2023, supporting the fastest pace of job creation since August, even as inflation risks mount and growth prospects face renewed pressure.

Speaking at the annual China Development Forum in Beijing, Li said China would expand imports of high-quality foreign goods and work with trading partners to promote more balanced global trade, according to state media.

Li’s remarks come as China faces mounting concerns from major economies, particularly the United States and the European Union, over its trade practices, industrial overcapacity and reliance on Chinese exports.

While he did not directly reference the record surplus, his comments indicated an effort to address imbalances that have strained international economic relations.The forum, which brings together foreign business leaders, policymakers and economists, is a key platform for Beijing to outline its economic priorities and signal openness to global investors.

In a separate address, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said assessments of global imbalances should account for both goods and services trade, as well as financial flows. He noted that while China runs the world’s largest goods surplus, it also posts the largest services deficit.

Pan added that China does not intend to gain a competitive trade advantage through currency depreciation, responding to longstanding concerns from trading partners over exchange rate policies.

Beijing is also attempting to reverse a decline in foreign direct investment, which fell 5.7% year-on-year to just over 92 billion yuan ($13.36 billion) in January, following a 9.5% drop in 2025.

In December, authorities expanded incentives for foreign investors by adding 200 sectors eligible for benefits such as tax breaks and preferential land use, focusing on areas including advanced manufacturing and modern services.

Efforts to stabilise trade ties come as geopolitical tensions persist. U.S. President Donald Trump recently postponed a planned visit to Beijing to meet President Xi Jinping due to the Iran conflict, delaying talks aimed at easing economic tensions between the two countries.

Recent attacks on oil and gas infrastructure have already driven up prices, raising concerns about inflation, trade disruptions and broader economic slowdown across both advanced and emerging markets.

Across Europe, memories of the economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war are shaping concerns about a fresh energy shock.

Germany, with its industry-heavy economy, is particularly exposed to higher energy costs. Although manufacturing activity has shown signs of stabilisation after a prolonged downturn, rising input costs and weaker global demand could weigh on exports. While Berlin has introduced stimulus measures, fiscal constraints may limit further support.

Italy faces similar vulnerabilities, given its large manufacturing base and relatively high dependence on oil and gas in its energy mix.In United Kingdom, electricity prices are closely tied to gas costs, which have risen sharply since the conflict began.

While a price cap may soften the immediate impact on households, economists warn it could lead to prolonged high borrowing costs and strain public finances.

Japan remains highly vulnerable due to its reliance on imported energy, sourcing around 95% of its oil from the Middle East. Nearly 90% of these supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making supply disruptions a critical risk.

The impact is compounded by a weak yen, which increases the cost of imports and adds to inflationary pressures affecting food and household goods.

In the Gulf, the conflict is expected to have a direct economic impact. While higher oil prices would typically boost revenues, disruptions to shipping routes could offset gains if exports are constrained.

Countries such as Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain rely heavily on the uninterrupted flow of hydrocarbons through the Strait of Hormuz.

Any sustained blockage could hinder their ability to access global markets.The conflict could also affect remittance flows from expatriate workers, a key source of income for many households in the region.

Among large emerging economies, India is particularly exposed. It imports about 90% of its crude oil and nearly half of its liquefied petroleum gas, with a significant share transported via the Strait of Hormuz.

Higher energy prices could widen India’s trade deficit, fuel inflation and complicate monetary policy, especially if global financial conditions tighten in response to the crisis.

As energy markets remain volatile, the extent of the economic impact will depend on the duration of the conflict and the degree of disruption to global supply chains.