The World Meteorological Organization said there is an 86 percent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded. The agency also projected a 75 percent probability that average global temperatures over the five-year period will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

The warning comes as parts of Europe experience unusually early heatwaves, with temperature records broken in Britain and France during May.

Scientists linked the rising temperatures partly to the expected return of the El Nino climate pattern by late 2026, which historically boosts global warming. WMO climate expert Leon Hermanson said the phenomenon could make 2027 a potential record-breaking year.

The agency stressed that temporary breaches of the 1.5C threshold do not automatically mean the Paris climate target has permanently failed, as the agreement measures long-term warming trends over decades rather than individual years.

The report also warned of accelerated warming in the Arctic, where winter temperatures are forecast to rise at more than three times the global average. Wetter conditions are expected across northern Europe, the Sahel, Alaska and Siberia, while drought risks may intensify in the Amazon region.

The India Meteorological Department projected seasonal rainfall at 92% of the long-period average (LPA), below its benchmark range for normal precipitation. The monsoon, which typically spans June to September, provides nearly 70% of the country’s annual rainfall and is critical for farming and water supplies.

M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said the forecast reflects evolving climate conditions, while IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra noted that weak La Niña-like conditions are transitioning to neutral patterns, with a high likelihood of an El Nino developing after June.

El Niño events are typically associated with hotter and drier weather across South and Southeast Asia and have historically coincided with weaker monsoons in India, sometimes triggering drought conditions and crop losses.

However, Mohapatra said a potential positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole later in the season could partially offset rainfall deficits by strengthening precipitation in the latter half of the monsoon.The initial forecast of 92% of the LPA is the lowest in nearly three decades, with an updated outlook expected in late May.

Economists warned that weaker rainfall, combined with global energy and commodity disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, could weigh on India’s economic outlook. Aditi Nayar said the developments pose downside risks to GDP growth for the 2026–27 fiscal year and could push inflation above 4.5%, compared with 3.4% recorded in March.

The government has projected economic growth between 6.8% and 7.2% for the current fiscal year, but agricultural performance remains a key variable.Lower rainfall could also reshape trade flows.

India, the world’s largest exporter of rice and onions and a major sugar producer, may curb exports if crop yields fall. At the same time, reduced domestic oilseed output could increase reliance on imported edible oils from countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Brazil.

The monsoon outlook is closely watched by policymakers and markets alike, given its broad impact on rural incomes, food prices and overall economic stability.