Tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump disrupted Chinese manufacturing in 2025, but an electronics producer in southern China says the turbulence has reinforced the country’s role as a difficult-to-replace production base, even as companies diversify operations abroad.

Agilian Technology, a Dongguan-based firm supplying mainly Western brands, saw U.S. orders accounting for more than half its revenue frozen for months during the escalation of trade tensions. Clients pushed the company to establish production capacity outside China as tariff risks mounted.

The volatility reflected broader disruption across China’s industrial sector, where official purchasing managers’ index readings contracted for much of 2025, reaching their weakest level in April since December 2023. The downturn coincided with successive tariff hikes targeting Chinese exports, which triggered order cancellations and inventory buildups across export-oriented manufacturers.

Executives at Agilian said customers initially rushed to ship goods ahead of tariff deadlines, filling warehouses across North America and driving up storage costs. Following the re-election of Donald Trump, uncertainty intensified, with clients placing urgent calls and exploring alternative production bases in Southeast Asia.

Two rounds of tariff increases early in the administration, totalling 20%, raised concerns but did not immediately shift production. However, a further escalation in April, which added 34 percentage points to tariffs on Chinese goods, prompted widespread cancellations. Goods accumulated inside Agilian’s 12,000-square-metre facility as orders stalled.

China’s response, including export controls on key minerals and metals used by U.S. industries, contributed to a rapid escalation in trade barriers, with tariffs exceeding 100% on both sides before easing later in the year. Company executives said the period effectively froze cross-border trade flows.

Beijing’s countermeasures also altered market dynamics. By March 2026, China’s official PMI expanded at its fastest pace in a year, suggesting a recovery in industrial activity. Economists attributed this resilience to the reconfiguration of global supply chains rather than a reversal of tariff policies.

Nick Marro of the Economist Intelligence Unit said the tariff measures had reshaped trade linkages rather than undermined China’s manufacturing base, pointing to continued output growth despite disruptions.

Official data showed China’s trade surplus reached $213.6 billion in the first two months of 2026, up from $169.21 billion a year earlier. In 2025, the surplus rose by about 20% to a record $1.2 trillion, highlighting sustained export strength even as shipments to the United States declined.

Agilian’s chief executive, Fabien Gaussorgues, said exports to the U.S. fell by around 20% in 2025, reflecting reduced demand from American buyers affected by tariffs. The company began pursuing alternative production strategies, including partnerships in Penang, Malaysia, and exploring industrial space in Dharwad, India.

The firm had already established a legal entity in India, but operational challenges slowed progress. Gaussorgues said regulatory processes and production timelines extended beyond client expectations, while some customers expressed concerns over customs delays.

Efforts to relocate production to the United States were also examined, but incomplete domestic supply chains and higher labour costs limited feasibility, leaving manufacturers reliant on Chinese components that remained subject to tariffs.A temporary easing of trade tensions following a Washington-Beijing agreement in May led to the removal of most tariffs imposed earlier in the year.

However, subsequent U.S. measures, including a 50% tariff hike on India in August tied to its energy trade policies, complicated diversification efforts.Agilian continued developing its overseas footprint despite shifting policy signals. Pre-production runs in Malaysia revealed longer setup times compared to China, reinforcing the logistical advantages of its established base in Dongguan.

China’s export controls during the summer exposed dependencies in U.S. industries on materials processed predominantly in China, affecting sectors including automotive and defence. A meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in October resulted in a partial tariff reduction of 10 percentage points, easing pressure on manufacturers.

By the second half of 2025, Agilian reported a rebound in activity, with production hours rising 29% compared with the first half as clients resumed orders. Executives said customers appeared to accept higher tariff levels as manageable, provided further escalation was avoided.

Company officials indicated that any return to tariff levels near 100% would likely lead to renewed order freezes, underscoring continued vulnerability to policy shifts. While the firm plans to expand operations in India and Malaysia as a hedge against future disruptions, Gaussorgues said China’s combination of cost efficiency and supply chain integration remains central to its operations.

He added that the company aims to increase revenue by 30% over the next three years, although external factors, including geopolitical tensions, continue to shape planning assumptions.

If Vance steps in, India has a chance to move from mistrust to trust. From tariffs to trade. From insult to respect. From dependency to self-reliance.

American politics is in flux. Donald Trump’s health has raised questions of succession. If Vice President J.D. Vance becomes President, India will have to assess the change carefully. Trump’s second term brought strain. Tariffs hurt trade. Rhetoric hurt trust. His adviser Peter Navarro made remarks that angered India deeply.

Vance, however, speaks in a different tone. He has talked of fairness, partnership, and shared strategy. His wife, Usha Vance, adds a cultural bridge between the two democracies.

Lets  examine what a Vance presidency could mean for India, across trade, energy, defence, and diplomacy. Lets also recall why Navarro’s words left scars and why India’s AMCA fighter project must remain the priority even if the U.S. offers the F-35.

Trump’s Legacy and the Navarro Hurt

Trump began with warmth. He joined Prime Minister Modi in public rallies. He praised the Indian-American community. But behind the smiles came tariffs. Duties on Indian goods shot up. In some cases close to 50 percent. About one-fifth of Indian exports were hit. Companies lost contracts. The economy took a hit.

Trust also weakened. Policymakers in Delhi wondered if the U.S. was reliable. If tariffs could be raised overnight, what stopped sudden defence restrictions? Then came Peter Navarro. First he accused India of “manipulative trade practices.” Later he used the phrase “Brahminism profiteering.”

This was explosive. It implied Indian elites were unfair, exploitative, even corrupt. It carried echoes of colonial stereotypes. The reaction in India was fierce. Social media erupted. Hashtags condemning Navarro trended for days. Politicians, journalists, and ordinary citizens called it insulting.

For many, it was not about trade. It was about identity. It was cultural disrespect. It dismissed India as a society of profiteers, not partners. The hurt was deep. Navarro’s phrase became a symbol of arrogance. Combined with tariffs, it made U.S. policy look hostile. By 2025, ties needed repair.

Vance’s Reset

J.D. Vance visited India in April 2025. His words struck a different chord. He warned that without U.S.–India cooperation, “the 21st century could become a very dark time for humanity.”

This was not tariff talk. This was strategy.

Trade: He and Modi agreed on Mission 500. The goal: double trade to $500 billion by 2030. This replaced tariffs with targets. It put growth above punishment.

Energy: He invited India to buy more American energy. Ethanol, nuclear fuel, offshore gas—all were pitched. Energy is a critical area where India needs partners.

Defence: Vance also raised the question of the F-35 fighter jet. He suggested India consider it. He spoke of joint production and technology sharing. This was new language of trust.

But for India, this brings an important debate.

Defence: AMCA vs. F-35

The Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) is India’s flagship fighter project. Designed by DRDO and HAL, it is meant to be a fifth-generation aircraft with stealth, supercruise, internal weapons bays, and advanced avionics. It is Indian in design, development, and deployment. It will serve Indian conditions. It will secure India’s independence in air power.

The F-35 Lightning II is the world’s most widely deployed stealth fighter. It has been used in combat. It has advanced stealth, sensors, and NATO integration. But it comes with issues. It is expensive. Unit costs are high, but maintenance costs are higher. It is dependent on U.S. supply chains. Lockheed Martin retains control over spares and upgrades. Deep codes are not shared. Sovereignty is limited.

Indian radars have also tracked stealth-like profiles during exercises. Stealth is not invincibility. The F-35 may not have the same edge in the Indian environment.

For India, the choice is clear. AMCA is the priority. It gives self-reliance. It creates jobs. It builds technology in India. It supports “Make in India.” It keeps strategy independent. F-35 is only an option. It may help in deterrence. It may be useful in limited numbers for signalling. But it cannot replace AMCA.

A balanced approach is possible. AMCA as the backbone. A few F-35s for joint exercises and visible deterrence. But the future must be Indian.

Usha Vance: The Human Bridge

Policies define strategy. People define trust. That is where Usha Vance plays a vital role. She is of Telugu origin. She is the first Indian American, first Hindu, and first Asian American to serve as U.S. Second Lady. If she becomes First Lady, it will mark history.

Her own record is impressive. Yale and Cambridge. Clerkship at the U.S. Supreme Court. A respected legal mind.

Indian excellence. Her mother, Dr. Lakshmi Chilukuri, is a microbiologist in California. Her great-aunt, Shanthamma Chilukuri, still teaches physics in Andhra Pradesh at 96.

During her India trip in 2025, she called it the “journey of a lifetime.” She said it was special to show her children their heritage. This resonated deeply. Indians felt pride. Her presence humanized diplomacy. She gave warmth where Navarro had given insult.

Beyond Optics

Some dismiss such symbolism. But symbolism matters. It adds trust. Trust makes agreements work. Vance sees China as America’s biggest threat. India agrees. This shared view aligns both nations. The Indo-Pacific is central to both strategies.

The contrast is sharp. Navarro spoke of “Brahminism profiteering.” He divided. Usha speaks of roots and pride. She connects. Vance talks of cooperation. Trump talked of tariffs.

This is not cosmetic. It is a fundamental shift in tone.

Looking Forward

If Vance becomes President, India could see clear benefits.

Economy: Tariffs may ease. Trade talks will revive. “Mission 500” could boost exports. IT, pharma, and manufacturing will benefit.

Defence: Access to advanced systems like the F-35 may be offered. But AMCA remains the core. Limited F-35s could add deterrence.

Energy: U.S. energy supplies could diversify India’s imports. Ethanol, nuclear, and gas will help.

Diplomatic Trust: U.S. policy may become steadier. Less harsh rhetoric. More fairness.

Soft Power: Usha Vance provides a cultural bridge. Diaspora ties will deepen. Pride will grow.

India–U.S. relations have swung between warmth and strain. Under Trump, tariffs and harsh words caused wounds. Navarro’s “Brahminism profiteering” comment triggered outrage. It became a symbol of insult. But a Vance presidency could change the story. His policies are cooperative. His tone is respectful. His vision is shared strategy.

With Usha Vance, the relationship gains a human bridge. She adds cultural pride and emotional connection. She reverses the insult with dignity.

For defence, the choice is clear. AMCA must be India’s backbone. The F-35 can remain only an option. Sovereignty matters more than supply chains. Strategic autonomy matters more than short-term gains.

If Vance steps in, India has a chance to move from mistrust to trust. From tariffs to trade. From insult to respect. From dependency to self-reliance. The opportunity is real. The direction is India’s to decide.

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not reflect Milli Chronicle’s point-of-view.