Ministers are set to gather in Santa Marta against the backdrop of fuel shortages and rising prices following what the International Energy Agency has described as the largest oil supply shock on record, driven in part by constraints around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route for global energy supplies.

The conference, co-hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands, was initiated amid frustration with the pace of negotiations under United Nations climate frameworks, where consensus-based processes have struggled to produce a clear pathway for reducing fossil fuel dependence.

Organisers say the current energy crisis has reinforced the strategic need for a managed transition, even as some governments increase coal use in the short term to stabilise domestic supply.Energy security considerations are expected to weigh as heavily as climate commitments during the discussions, reflecting the policy dilemma facing both advanced and developing economies.

Countries including Australia, Canada and Norway are expected to attend alongside emerging producers such as Angola, Mexico and Brazil, as well as coal-reliant economies like Turkiye and Vietnam. European nations including Germany, France and the United Kingdom are also set to participate.

However, several of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers and consumers, including the United States, China, Saudi Arabia and Russia, will not be represented, limiting the scope of any immediate global alignment.Colombia’s environment minister Irene Vélez Torres said the meeting has gained increased relevance in light of recent geopolitical developments, describing it as an opportunity to foster more direct engagement between producers and consumers on an issue often constrained in multilateral forums.

Analysts say the smaller, focused format may allow for more candid discussions but could also dilute outcomes given the diversity of national interests. Climate scientist Bill Hare of Climate Analytics noted that broader participation can make it harder to reach specific commitments, while supporters argue the inclusion of fossil fuel-producing nations marks a necessary step in advancing negotiations.

Participants from climate-vulnerable states, including Tuvalu and Vanuatu, are expected to push for accelerated timelines, citing the disproportionate impact of climate change and their reliance on imported energy. Officials from these countries have framed the current crisis as further evidence of the need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

Global investment in clean energy now outpaces spending on fossil fuels by roughly a factor of two, yet emissions from coal, oil and gas reached a record high in 2025, underscoring the gap between policy commitments and implementation.

The Santa Marta meeting is not expected to yield binding agreements but will contribute to a voluntary roadmap on fossil fuel transition being developed under Brazil’s leadership, as countries continue to grapple with balancing climate goals and energy security.

South Africa is advancing a transition away from its coal-dependent economy through a policy framework that seeks to align climate goals with social equity, according to discussions featured in a United Nations-backed podcast examining human rights-based economic models.

The initiative, highlighted in an episode of the “Economies That Work for All” series produced by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and the UN System Staff College, outlines how Africa’s most industrialized economy is attempting to balance decarbonization with the protection of vulnerable communities.

Dorah Modise, Executive Director of South Africa’s Presidential Climate Commission, said the transition to a low-carbon economy is not solely an environmental objective but a broader socio-economic challenge. The country remains one of the most unequal in the world, with coal-dependent regions particularly exposed to potential job losses and economic disruption as energy systems shift.

Modise emphasized that the transition must proceed but warned that its design will determine whether it mitigates or deepens existing inequalities. Communities reliant on coal production face heightened risks, particularly in a context where millions of South Africans continue to experience energy poverty and where financing constraints slow the pace of reform.

The government’s approach is guided by the Just Transition Framework developed by the Presidential Climate Commission, which seeks to integrate economic restructuring with social protection. The framework promotes the gradual decentralization of the energy system, expansion of renewable energy capacity, and the development of new employment pathways in emerging green industries.

Efforts are also underway to prepare workers for shifts in the labor market through retraining and skills development initiatives. Authorities are expanding social protection measures to cushion the impact of industrial restructuring, while also seeking to ensure that the benefits of the energy transition are more evenly distributed.

A key component of the strategy involves the management of natural resources critical to the global energy transition. South Africa holds reserves of minerals required for renewable technologies, and policymakers are attempting to position the country as a supplier while adhering to environmental and labor standards.

“As we explore and extract … we need to protect workers and communities, and we need to avoid impacting the environment,” Modise said, underscoring the importance of responsible mining practices within the broader transition strategy.

The framework is rooted in South Africa’s constitutional provisions, which recognize sustainable development as a fundamental right. This legal foundation shapes the government’s emphasis on integrating human rights considerations into economic planning and environmental policy.Implementation of the transition strategy involves coordination across multiple stakeholders, including government agencies, private sector actors, civil society organizations, and international donors.

This multi-stakeholder approach is intended to address competing interests and manage trade-offs inherent in large-scale economic transformation.The policy framework also incorporates metrics that extend beyond traditional energy indicators. Progress is being assessed not only in terms of renewable energy capacity but also through social outcomes such as reductions in inequality, increased employment opportunities for young people, and greater participation of women in decision-making processes.

Modise described the ultimate measure of success as a narrowing of disparities between different socio-economic groups. This reflects a broader shift in policy thinking that links climate action with inclusive development objectives.South Africa’s transition efforts take place within a wider global debate on how to reconcile decarbonization with economic justice, particularly in developing economies where structural inequalities and fiscal constraints complicate policy implementation.

The country’s approach is being closely observed as a potential model for integrating human rights considerations into climate policy.The podcast series situates South Africa’s experience within the broader concept of a “human rights economy,” which seeks to align economic systems with social and environmental priorities.

The framework is linked to the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which emphasizes inclusive growth and equitable resource distribution.As countries accelerate efforts to meet climate targets, the South African case highlights the challenges of ensuring that transitions away from fossil fuels do not disproportionately affect already marginalized populations.

The emphasis on participatory governance and rights-based policy design reflects an attempt to address these concerns while maintaining momentum toward decarbonization.

In an interview, Banga said the World Bank expects global growth to decline by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points under a baseline scenario assuming an early end to the conflict, and by as much as 1 percentage point if the war continues.

Inflation could rise by 200 to 300 basis points, with further increases of up to 0.9 percentage point in a prolonged conflict scenario.The bank now projects growth in emerging markets and developing economies at 3.65 percent in 2026, down from a previous estimate of 4 percent in October.

In a more severe scenario, growth could fall to as low as 2.6 percent. Inflation in these economies is forecast to reach 4.9 percent, compared to an earlier estimate of 3 percent, and could climb as high as 6.7 percent if disruptions persist.

The conflict has already driven oil prices up by about 50 percent while disrupting supplies of key commodities including oil, natural gas, fertilizers and helium, alongside impacts on tourism and air travel. Continued instability around the Strait of Hormuz remains a major risk factor, given its role in global energy flows.

Banga said the economic outlook depends heavily on whether ongoing negotiations lead to a lasting peace and the reopening of critical trade routes. Failure to stabilize the situation could result in longer-term damage to energy infrastructure and sustained pressure on global markets.

The World Bank has begun discussions with vulnerable countries, including small island states with limited energy resources, on accessing emergency funding through its crisis response mechanisms. These facilities allow governments to draw on pre-approved funds to manage immediate shocks without requiring new approvals.

At the same time, Banga cautioned governments against introducing unsustainable energy subsidies, warning such measures could worsen fiscal pressures in countries already burdened by high debt and elevated borrowing costs.

The crisis has intensified calls for energy diversification and greater self-sufficiency. Banga pointed to increased investments in refining capacity in countries such as Nigeria as an example of improving energy resilience, while noting ongoing World Bank support for expanding energy production in nations including Mozambique.

He added that scaling up nuclear, hydroelectric, geothermal, wind and solar energy would be critical to reducing reliance on traditional fuels and mitigating future shocks to global energy systems.