Tokyo — Business sentiment among Japanese firms improved in the three months to March while corporate inflation expectations rose to record levels, a closely watched survey showed on Wednesday, strengthening the case for a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, even as escalating fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict darken the economic outlook.

The central bank’s quarterly “tankan” survey indicated that large manufacturers’ sentiment index rose to +17 in March, slightly above market forecasts of +16 and up from +16 in December, marking its highest level since December 2021.

The improvement extended a fourth consecutive quarter of gains, suggesting that parts of Japan’s industrial sector have continued to recover despite mounting global uncertainties.

Sentiment among large non-manufacturers remained robust, with the index holding steady at +36, surpassing a median market forecast of +33. The strength in the services sector was supported by rising profits from price increases and a continued recovery in inbound tourism, according to the survey data.

A Bank of Japan official said resilient demand for artificial intelligence-related semiconductors and easing uncertainty over U.S. trade policy helped offset pressures from higher input costs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

At the same time, the survey highlighted growing inflationary pressures within the corporate sector. Companies reported rising expectations for future price increases, reflecting the impact of higher fuel and raw material costs.

Analysts said this trend could provide additional justification for the central bank to move toward policy normalisation after years of ultra-loose monetary settings.Mari Iwashita, executive rates strategist at Nomura Securities, said the survey underscored mounting inflation risks driven by external shocks.

She noted that companies facing surging energy costs may increasingly pass those expenses on to consumers, reinforcing upward pressure on prices.The data comes at a critical juncture for the Bank of Japan, which is weighing whether to raise interest rates as early as this month.

Market participants have been closely monitoring the tankan survey as a key gauge of corporate sentiment and investment plans.Despite the relatively upbeat current conditions, the survey revealed growing caution among firms about the near-term outlook.

Both manufacturers and non-manufacturers expect business conditions to deteriorate over the next three months, reflecting concerns about the economic fallout from the Iran conflict and its impact on energy markets.

The ongoing conflict has driven up global fuel costs, increasing operational expenses for Japanese companies that rely heavily on imported energy. The resulting squeeze on margins is expected to weigh on profitability, particularly for industries with limited pricing power.

Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, said the strength of the survey could still encourage policymakers to act. He noted that firms appeared to be absorbing the energy shock for now, suggesting that underlying economic conditions remain stable enough to support a rate hike in the near term.

Capital expenditure plans among large firms also pointed to cautious optimism. Companies expect to increase investment by 3.3% in the fiscal year 2026, exceeding a median market forecast of a 3.0% rise.

The planned increase suggests that firms are continuing to invest in growth despite heightened uncertainty.The survey period, which ran from February 26 to March 31, captured responses from roughly 70% of firms by March 12, shortly after the escalation of hostilities involving the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran on February 28.

This timing indicates that early assessments of the conflict’s economic impact are already being reflected in corporate sentiment.Economists cautioned that the positive momentum seen in the survey may not be sustained if external conditions worsen.

Stefan Angrick said that while a weak yen and subdued wage growth have supported corporate margins, broader economic challenges remain.He noted that export growth could weaken amid slowing global demand, while domestic consumption may remain constrained by modest income gains.

Over time, these factors could weigh on corporate profits and sentiment, complicating the central bank’s policy decisions.The survey underscores the delicate balance facing policymakers as they navigate between emerging inflationary pressures and risks to economic growth.

While improving sentiment and rising prices strengthen the case for tightening monetary policy, the uncertain global environment, particularly developments in the Middle East, continues to pose significant challenges for Japan’s export-driven economy.

Strong household demand lifts growth, underscoring resilience of the US economy.

The United States economy recorded an impressive expansion in the third quarter, reflecting the strength and adaptability of consumer demand despite a complex global and domestic environment.

Economic growth accelerated to its fastest pace in two years, supported by households spending confidently on goods, services, and travel, reinforcing the role of consumers as the backbone of the economy.

Rising consumer activity helped lift overall output, signaling that demand conditions remained healthy even as cost pressures and policy uncertainties lingered in the background.

Exports also contributed positively, narrowing the trade gap and highlighting the competitiveness of US products and services in global markets.

Government spending and continued business investment further strengthened economic momentum, especially in areas linked to technology and advanced digital infrastructure.

Spending on equipment and artificial intelligence-related investments demonstrated confidence among firms in long-term productivity and innovation-led growth.

Household consumption rose at its strongest pace in nearly a year, driven by higher outlays on recreational products, vehicles, healthcare, and everyday essentials.

Travel spending also picked up as consumers increased domestic and international trips, reflecting optimism and improved financial conditions among certain segments of the population.

Higher-income households played a notable role in driving consumption, supported by rising asset values and gains in equity markets.

This wealth effect helped offset pressures faced by middle- and lower-income groups, creating uneven but still supportive overall demand dynamics.

Despite the strength seen in the quarter, economists note that the data reflects past momentum, with some indicators suggesting moderation toward the end of the year.

Retail activity has shown signs of cooling, particularly in discretionary categories, as households respond to higher living costs and tighter financial conditions.

Even so, the strong third-quarter performance reduced immediate pressure on policymakers to stimulate the economy further.

Solid growth provided reassurance that the economy can sustain itself without aggressive near-term interest rate adjustments.

Business profitability improved significantly, reflecting healthy demand, pricing power in some sectors, and efficiency gains from technology adoption.

Rising profits also enabled firms to continue investing in expansion, research, and workforce development.

Inflation pressures did increase during the quarter, influenced by higher energy demand, utility costs, and service-sector prices.

However, inflation remained within a range that policymakers continue to monitor closely, balancing price stability with economic growth.

The performance underscored the resilience of the US economy, even amid policy shifts, global trade adjustments, and evolving consumer behavior.

Economic strength in the quarter highlighted the importance of domestic demand in sustaining momentum during uncertain times.

Looking ahead, analysts expect growth to normalize but remain supported by solid fundamentals, innovation, and a flexible labor market.

While challenges remain, the third-quarter results reinforced confidence in the economy’s underlying capacity to adapt and expand.

Overall, robust consumer spending proved to be a powerful driver, helping deliver a strong growth outcome that exceeded expectations.

The data painted a picture of an economy that continues to move forward, supported by confidence, investment, and sustained household demand.

As the year progresses, attention will shift to maintaining balance between growth and price stability while preserving long-term economic strength.

The third quarter stands as a clear example of how consumer confidence and spending can propel economic performance even in testing conditions.

Markets Show Resilience Amid Mixed Earnings

At 04:59 a.m. Eastern Time, Dow E-minis were down just 16 points, or 0.03%, while S&P 500 E-minis rose 2.25 points, or 0.03%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis slipped 27 points, or 0.11%.

The minor fluctuations signaled that investors remain confident despite temporary volatility from corporate earnings announcements.

Netflix (NFLX.O) shares dipped 6.8% in premarket trading after the streaming giant missed Wall Street’s third-quarter profit estimates — an unusual miss for the company known for consistent subscriber growth and global expansion.

However, analysts pointed out that the company’s long-term fundamentals remain strong, particularly with its growing ad-supported tier and continued international audience gains.

“The reaction to Netflix’s earnings shows how high investor expectations are,” said Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “The company remains a leader in digital content, and its expansion into live events and gaming will help diversify future revenue streams.”

Broader Market Sentiment Remains Constructive

Despite some short-term earnings disappointments, the U.S. equity market continues to hover near record highs, supported by robust corporate profits and steady economic data. The S&P 500 ended Tuesday virtually unchanged, the Nasdaq dipped slightly, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.5%, signaling that investors are selectively rotating toward stable, value-driven stocks.

According to LSEG data, of the 78 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, 87% have beaten analyst estimates, reflecting broad-based earnings strength across multiple sectors.

Analysts now expect third-quarter earnings growth of 9.2% year-over-year, up from 8.8% earlier in October — a sign that U.S. corporations continue to perform well even in a cautious environment.

Tech Sector in Focus

In the technology sector, Texas Instruments (TXN.O) dropped 8.7% in premarket trading after forecasting lower-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue.

Nonetheless, analysts noted that demand for chips tied to AI applications, automation, and industrial systems remains a key long-term growth driver.

Peers such as Microchip Technology (MCHP.O), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.O), and ON Semiconductor (ON.O) also saw modest declines, but investors expect the sector to stabilize as chip demand normalizes and AI-related investment expands globally.

Meanwhile, Alphabet (GOOGL.O) shares rose 1.3% following reports from Bloomberg that Anthropic — a leading AI research company — is in talks with Google to secure additional computing resources worth tens of billions of dollars.

The partnership underscores Alphabet’s ongoing commitment to AI innovation and digital infrastructure leadership.

Focus Turns to Tesla and Upcoming Earnings

All eyes are now on Tesla (TSLA.O), which is set to report earnings after markets close. As the first of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech giants to release results, Tesla’s performance could set the tone for other mega-cap names in the days ahead.

The company’s shares rose 0.4% in premarket trading, reflecting optimism about its new battery technologies and autonomous driving software pipeline.

Elsewhere, AT&T (T.N) traded flat ahead of its quarterly report, while several financial and industrial firms are expected to post results later this week.

Analysts believe the diversity of earnings reports will provide valuable insight into consumer spending trends, corporate investment, and business confidence heading into the final quarter of the year.

External Factors and Policy Outlook

Geopolitical developments remain a watchpoint, with a planned summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin postponed, while uncertainty surrounds a potential meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Nonetheless, diplomatic channels between Washington and Beijing remain open, and recent trade discussions have helped ease fears of escalation.

At home, the Federal Reserve faces challenges in interpreting economic conditions due to the temporary government shutdown, which has delayed the release of several key data reports.

Still, the central bank is expected to maintain a measured approach in its upcoming policy meeting, with inflation showing signs of stability. September’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast to hold steady at 3.1%, supporting expectations for a gradual, data-driven monetary stance.

Overall, Wall Street remains in a steady and constructive position, balancing short-term corporate volatility with long-term economic optimism.

Analysts see continued opportunities in sectors linked to AI, energy transition, and digital infrastructure, while stable inflation and strong earnings could keep markets on firm ground.

Though investors are treading carefully during earnings season, the underlying sentiment remains cautiously optimistic — a sign that U.S. markets continue to display resilience, adaptability, and confidence amid evolving global conditions.