Citing U.S. officials familiar with the matter, the report said Trump concluded during a White House Situation Room meeting on Monday that both resuming bombing campaigns and fully stepping back from the conflict carried greater risks than maintaining a naval squeeze on Iran’s oil exports and shipping routes.

According to the report, Trump believes Iran is not negotiating in good faith and wants Tehran to suspend uranium enrichment for 20 years while accepting strict long-term restrictions on its nuclear activities. Officials said the administration views the blockade as a way to intensify pressure without immediately reopening large-scale military operations.

Trump signaled frustration publicly on Wednesday, writing on his Truth Social platform that Iran “can’t get their act together” and warning Tehran to “better get smart soon.”

“Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a nonnuclear deal.They better get smart soon!” Trump posted, alongside an image carrying the caption “NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!”The reported strategy would rely on the U.S. Navy continuing efforts to restrict vessels traveling to and from Iranian ports, further tightening pressure on oil exports that are central to Iran’s economy.

Analysts say the approach risks extending instability around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy transit routes.Oil markets reacted sharply to reports of a prolonged blockade, with Brent crude rising to a one-month high above $114 a barrel on concerns over sustained supply disruption and continued uncertainty over shipping through the Hormuz corridor.

The White House has not formally announced a policy shift, and Iranian officials have not publicly responded to the Wall Street Journal report.The decision suggests Washington may be preparing for a prolonged standoff in which active fighting remains limited but diplomacy remains frozen, leaving the conflict in what analysts describe as a “no-deal, no-war” phase.

GIFT Nifty futures were trading at 24,002 points at 7:58 a.m. IST, indicating the benchmark Nifty 50 would open below Monday’s close of 24,092.70.The Nifty and the BSE Sensex had snapped a three-session losing streak on Monday, supported by a rebound in information technology stocks after sharp losses last week.

However, analysts said broader market momentum remained fragile due to persistent geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.Investor concerns have centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route that handles about one-fifth of global oil flows. Continued disruptions and uncertainty around the conflict have pushed Brent crude prices close to $109 per barrel.

Higher oil prices are a significant risk for India, the world’s third-largest crude importer, as they raise inflation pressures, increase the import bill and can weigh on economic growth as well as corporate profitability.

Efforts to end the Iran conflict appeared stalled after a U.S. official said on Monday that President Donald Trump was dissatisfied with Tehran’s latest proposal to resolve the war.Back in domestic markets, foreign portfolio investors sold Indian equities worth 11.51 billion rupees ($122.2 million) on Monday, extending their selling streak to a sixth consecutive session.

Domestic institutional investors remained net buyers for a third straight day, purchasing shares worth 41.24 billion rupees and helping cushion broader market declines.Among individual stocks, UltraTech Cement, India’s largest cement producer by capacity, is expected to remain in focus after reporting quarterly profit above analyst estimates, supported by stronger demand and favorable weather conditions for construction activity.

State-owned Coal India also posted better-than-expected March-quarter earnings, helped by higher coal prices and stronger demand.SBI Cards and Payment Services reported a 14% year-on-year increase in quarterly profit, adding to investor focus on earnings-driven moves across sectors.

Market participants are expected to remain cautious in the near term, balancing domestic earnings momentum against external risks from energy prices, global inflation concerns and sustained foreign capital outflows.

Brent crude futures rose about 7% in early Asian trading to $96.85 a barrel, while S&P 500 futures fell roughly 0.9%, reflecting a shift toward risk aversion among investors. Currency markets also reacted, with the euro easing 0.3% to $1.1735 and the Japanese yen weakening about 0.2% to 158.95 per dollar.

The moves followed conflicting signals on diplomacy after Iran rejected new peace talks with the United States, according to state media, hours after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington would pursue negotiations while warning of further military action if Tehran refused its terms.

Market sentiment was further pressured by rising tensions at sea after the United States said it had seized an Iranian cargo vessel attempting to breach its blockade, adding to uncertainty around energy supply routes.

The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz a key transit corridor for global oil and gas shipments — reversed sharp gains in equities and bonds recorded on Friday, when Iran’s brief reopening of the passage had fueled hopes of de-escalation and sent oil prices lower.

Analysts said markets are recalibrating expectations after what some viewed as an overly optimistic rally. Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, said investors were unwinding positions as geopolitical risks resurfaced, though underlying expectations of continued dialogue between the two sides remain a moderating factor.

“If it is confirmed that talks will not proceed, markets could shift more decisively into risk-off mode,” Brown said, noting that much of Friday’s bond rally could reverse under sustained uncertainty.Global equities had rallied last week, with Wall Street indexes reaching record highs, supported by easing oil prices and expectations of strong corporate earnings.

Bond yields also declined, with the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield falling to its lowest level since mid-March.The U.S. dollar, which had weakened in recent sessions as safe-haven demand eased, edged higher on Monday, with the dollar index up around 0.2% in early trading.

Analysts cautioned that recent market moves suggest heightened volatility ahead. Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Capital Markets noted that the Nasdaq’s extended rally and the dollar’s recent declines indicated markets may have been pricing in a more optimistic scenario than current geopolitical conditions support.

Investors are now closely monitoring developments in the Iran conflict and any signals on diplomatic engagement, as well as upcoming corporate earnings, for direction in global markets.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 0.9%, marking a third straight day of gains, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.2% to a fresh peak. U.S. equity futures also pointed higher, with S&P 500 e-mini contracts up 0.2%.

The gains followed a strong session on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 rose 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.6%, supported by robust earnings from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. With roughly 6% of companies having reported results so far, about 84% have exceeded analysts’ expectations.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said they remained constructive on emerging market equities, citing expectations of solid profit growth driven in part by demand linked to artificial intelligence, which they said could remain relatively insulated from energy market shocks.

Attention in Asia is also turning to earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, a key supplier in the global semiconductor industry, with forecasts pointing to a sharp rise in quarterly profit on strong demand for advanced chips.

In currency markets, the U.S. dollar index was little changed at 98.02, as easing geopolitical tensions tempered safe-haven demand and investors adjusted expectations for monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve. The euro hovered near its highest level since the Iran conflict began, extending a multi-day rally.

Oil prices edged higher, with Brent crude rising 0.3% to $95.23 per barrel, after indications that Iran could allow safer maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz as part of ongoing negotiations with the United States. Supply concerns were also heightened by a refinery fire in Australia.

Chinese equities gained after data showed the economy expanded 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter, exceeding expectations and suggesting resilience despite geopolitical headwinds. Analysts cautioned, however, that prolonged conflict could weigh on global demand and exports.

Australian markets were more subdued, with shares slightly lower and the currency steady after employment data showed stable labor market conditions, reinforcing expectations that inflation risks remain a key concern for policymakers at the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Gold rose 0.6% as investors balanced improving risk sentiment with lingering uncertainty, while major cryptocurrencies edged lower in cautious trading.

Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the war had caused the most severe disruption to global energy supply on record, with millions of barrels of oil production shut down due to Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“Instead, all roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth,” Georgieva told Reuters, adding that the IMF would cut its growth forecasts and raise inflation projections in its upcoming World Economic Outlook.

The conflict is expected to dominate discussions at next week’s IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, where policymakers will assess the economic fallout from the crisis.

The Fund had previously anticipated a modest upgrade to global growth projections before the escalation.Georgieva said global oil supply had fallen by about 13%, with knock-on effects extending beyond energy markets into supply chains for commodities such as fertilizers and helium.

Brent crude prices have risen to around $110 per barrel, reflecting tightening supply conditions.She warned that even a swift resolution would leave a lasting economic impact, while a prolonged conflict would deepen inflationary pressures and further dampen growth prospects.

The effects are expected to be uneven, with energy-importing countries facing the greatest strain. Many low-income economies lack the fiscal capacity to cushion rising costs, increasing risks of economic instability and social unrest.

Georgieva said some countries had already sought financial assistance from the IMF, which could expand existing lending programs to address urgent needs. She cautioned against broad energy subsidies, arguing they could exacerbate inflation.Energy exporters have also been affected.

Damage to production infrastructure has slowed output recovery in some countries, including Qatar, where restoration of natural gas capacity could take several years.The IMF is coordinating with other global institutions, including the International Energy Agency and the World Bank, to assess the broader implications of the conflict.

Georgieva also highlighted risks to food security, noting that disruptions to fertilizer supplies could trigger wider shortages if the conflict continues.

The World Food Programme has warned that millions could face acute hunger if conditions worsen.

In a prime-time address, Trump said the United States would “hit” Iran hard over the next two to three weeks while asserting that core military objectives were nearing completion.

However, the absence of a defined endgame unsettled investors and raised concerns about prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.

South AfricaBenchmark crude prices jumped around 5%, climbing above $106 per barrel, while equity markets declined across major regions as traders reacted to continued uncertainty over the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments.

Trump reiterated that U.S. forces were “on track” to complete their objectives “very shortly,” and said Iran had been “essentially decimated,” while warning that further escalation remained possible if Tehran did not meet U.S. demands.

He also suggested potential strikes on key infrastructure, including energy facilities. Despite the aggressive rhetoric, diplomatic prospects remain limited. A senior Iranian source told Reuters that Tehran is seeking a guaranteed ceasefire before halting attacks and confirmed that no indirect talks on a temporary truce have taken place.

The ongoing conflict, which began after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Feb. 28, has disrupted global oil flows and heightened geopolitical risk across the Middle East. Iran’s effective blockade of Hormuz has constrained shipments that typically account for about one-fifth of global oil and gas trade, amplifying volatility in energy markets.

Market participants said Trump’s speech failed to reassure investors seeking clarity on how and when the conflict might end, with uncertainty over supply disruptions and military escalation continuing to drive price swings.

International financial institutions, including the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and International Energy Agency, have warned that the war is having significant and uneven global economic impacts, particularly on energy-importing countries.

The Nifty 50 gained 1.56% to close at 22,679.40, while the BSE Sensex advanced 1.65% to 73,134.32, marking a strong start to the new fiscal year after steep losses in March.Fourteen of the 16 major sectors ended higher, with broader markets outperforming.

The Nifty Smallcap 100 rose 3.3% and the Nifty Midcap 100 climbed 2.2%, reflecting renewed risk appetite among investors.Global equities also surged, with Asian markets posting their biggest one-day gain since November 2022 and Europe’s STOXX Europe 600 rising 2.1%, as easing geopolitical concerns buoyed sentiment.

Oil prices retreated, with Brent crude falling to around $103 per barrel after remarks by Donald Trump indicated a potential exit from the Iran conflict. Investors are now awaiting further updates in a scheduled address on Thursday.

“The markets are at levels where opportunities may emerge across sectors, though risks remain,” said Prateek Agrawal.

Indian equities had declined sharply in March, with both the Nifty 50 and Sensex falling more than 11% each, their steepest monthly losses in six years, as foreign investors pulled out a record $12.7 billion amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Analysts said a resolution to the Middle East conflict could support the rupee and revive foreign portfolio inflows, reversing the trend seen in March after earlier buying in February.

Gains on Wednesday came despite higher domestic fuel prices, with retailers raising rates for jet fuel and commercial liquefied petroleum gas.

Shares of companies in sectors such as fertilisers, restaurants, tourism and rice exports led the advance as optimism over easing global risks outweighed cost concerns.

The temporary tax cut will lower fuel costs by 26.3 Australian cents per litre, Albanese said, while the government will also remove the heavy road user charge.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the combined measures would cost about A$2.55 billion.

Global oil markets have tightened sharply after disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, through which around one-fifth of global supply previously passed. Brent crude has risen 59% in March, reaching $115.66 per barrel at the start of trading on Monday.

Domestic fuel prices have climbed in response, with diesel exceeding A$3 per litre and petrol reaching A$2.50, according to industry data.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the government would use expanded powers to support fuel imports, including underwriting high-cost spot cargoes through Export Finance Australia to ensure supply continuity.

The move aims to assist smaller fuel importers that may be unable to absorb the risks of volatile prices.

Canberra said Australia currently holds fuel reserves equivalent to about 30 days of diesel and jet fuel, and 39 days of petrol, below the 90-day level recommended by the International Energy Agency.

Officials said the country remains at level two of a national fuel security framework focused on maintaining transport and supply chains, warning that prolonged conflict could intensify economic pressures.

Financial markets are showing signs of diminishing responsiveness to statements by Donald Trump on the conflict involving Iran, as investors weigh inconsistent signals against ongoing geopolitical and economic risks.

Earlier this week, a social media post by Trump describing talks with Iran as “very good and productive” triggered a broad market reaction. Oil prices dropped more than 10%, global equities rallied, the dollar weakened, bond yields fell and gold prices rose, illustrating the sensitivity of asset classes to perceived diplomatic progress.

However, subsequent remarks by Trump extending a deadline for potential U.S. military action against Iranian energy infrastructure to April 6 produced a more muted response. U.S. equities pared losses only slightly, while crude prices stabilised rather than reversing course.

By early Friday, Brent crude had resumed its upward trajectory, trading above $109 per barrel, and S&P futures were again in negative territory.

Market participants appear increasingly cautious amid conflicting narratives from Washington and Tehran. While Trump said Iran had requested a seven-day reprieve, reports citing mediators indicated no such request had been made. Iranian officials have also rejected a 15-point U.S. proposal aimed at ending the conflict.

At the same time, reports suggest the United States may deploy an additional 10,000 troops to the Gulf region, reinforcing concerns that the conflict could escalate even as diplomatic channels remain open.

This divergence has complicated pricing across asset classes, with investors struggling to assess the likelihood of either a near-term resolution or further escalation.

Since the conflict began on February 28, traditional safe-haven assets have not behaved uniformly. U.S. Treasury securities have weakened, reflecting inflation concerns and expectations of a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, alongside signs of strain in government debt markets following a series of weak auctions.

Gold prices have also softened during the period, contrary to typical crisis-driven demand, prompting some investors to reassess assumptions about its role as a hedge during geopolitical shocks.Concerns are also building in private credit markets.

Firms including Ares Management and Apollo Global Management have restricted investor withdrawals from certain funds after an increase in redemption requests, signalling stress in less liquid segments of the financial system.

Despite volatility, some analysts are turning more constructive on U.S. equities, citing expectations of strong earnings growth. Several major banks have raised forecasts for the S&P 500, suggesting resilience in corporate performance even amid geopolitical uncertainty and concerns around artificial intelligence investment cycles.

In energy markets, the oil futures curve continues to indicate expectations of a relatively swift resolution to supply disruptions, despite estimates that as much as 20 million barrels per day could be affected by the conflict and related infrastructure damage.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy corridor, remains central to market dynamics. Investors appear to be pricing in a reopening of the route, although current conditions reflect ongoing disruption.U.S. gasoline prices are approaching $4 per gallon, indicating that domestic consumers are beginning to feel the impact of higher crude prices despite the country’s substantial energy production capacity.

Public sentiment has also weakened. A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed only 29% approval for Trump’s handling of the U.S. economy, marking the lowest level recorded for him on this measure.

The effects of the conflict are extending beyond crude markets. Natural gas markets may face more severe disruptions due to limited storage capacity, rigid supply chains and infrastructure constraints, particularly in Europe, which remains heavily dependent on gas imports.

This could force policymakers in Europe to reconsider elements of their climate transition strategies in the near term, as energy security concerns take precedence.

In contrast, the crisis may accelerate the adoption of alternative energy technologies in Asia, especially electric vehicles, where supply chains remain more flexible and policy support is strong.Geopolitical scheduling also reflects expectations around the conflict’s trajectory.

Trump has postponed a planned visit to China to meet Xi Jinping until mid-May, signalling an expectation that the situation may stabilise within weeks rather than days.

Markets remain highly sensitive to developments, but recent price action suggests that investors are placing greater emphasis on concrete developments rather than political messaging alone.

Brent crude futures rose 65 cents to $112.84 a barrel by 0446 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed 84 cents to $98.75, after both benchmarks had earlier fallen by more than $1. The spread between the two contracts widened to over $13 a barrel, the largest gap in years.

The volatility follows a U.S. decision to allow the temporary delivery and sale of Iranian-origin oil already at sea, injecting additional supply into markets strained by disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict.

Market sentiment remained highly sensitive to geopolitical developments after Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum demanding Iran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants.Iranian officials responded with warnings that any such action would trigger attacks on critical energy and infrastructure assets across the Gulf.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said regional facilities could face “irreversible” damage if Iranian plants were targeted.Analysts said the exchange of threats pointed to a heightened risk of escalation.

Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects said markets were underestimating the likelihood that Iran would resist pressure, warning that further confrontation could have severe consequences for Gulf infrastructure.

Despite the release of additional Iranian oil, traders remained focused on the scale of supply disruption caused by the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy flows handling roughly 20% of oil and liquefied natural gas trade, has been severely affected.Industry estimates suggest the war has removed between 7 million and 10 million barrels per day from Middle East production, tightening global supply even as policymakers attempt to stabilise markets.

Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights said short-term price movements would continue to be driven by geopolitical rhetoric, but longer-term trends would depend on the restoration of oil flows from the region.

Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, described the current crisis as “very severe,” exceeding the combined impact of the oil shocks of the 1970s.The conflict, now in its fourth week, has damaged major energy facilities and disrupted shipping routes, amplifying concerns over prolonged supply constraints and broader economic fallout.

The interplay between potential supply increases from Iranian oil and the risk of further infrastructure damage has left markets exposed to sharp price swings as the situation evolves.