Tokyo — Business sentiment among Japanese firms improved in the three months to March while corporate inflation expectations rose to record levels, a closely watched survey showed on Wednesday, strengthening the case for a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, even as escalating fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict darken the economic outlook.

The central bank’s quarterly “tankan” survey indicated that large manufacturers’ sentiment index rose to +17 in March, slightly above market forecasts of +16 and up from +16 in December, marking its highest level since December 2021.

The improvement extended a fourth consecutive quarter of gains, suggesting that parts of Japan’s industrial sector have continued to recover despite mounting global uncertainties.

Sentiment among large non-manufacturers remained robust, with the index holding steady at +36, surpassing a median market forecast of +33. The strength in the services sector was supported by rising profits from price increases and a continued recovery in inbound tourism, according to the survey data.

A Bank of Japan official said resilient demand for artificial intelligence-related semiconductors and easing uncertainty over U.S. trade policy helped offset pressures from higher input costs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

At the same time, the survey highlighted growing inflationary pressures within the corporate sector. Companies reported rising expectations for future price increases, reflecting the impact of higher fuel and raw material costs.

Analysts said this trend could provide additional justification for the central bank to move toward policy normalisation after years of ultra-loose monetary settings.Mari Iwashita, executive rates strategist at Nomura Securities, said the survey underscored mounting inflation risks driven by external shocks.

She noted that companies facing surging energy costs may increasingly pass those expenses on to consumers, reinforcing upward pressure on prices.The data comes at a critical juncture for the Bank of Japan, which is weighing whether to raise interest rates as early as this month.

Market participants have been closely monitoring the tankan survey as a key gauge of corporate sentiment and investment plans.Despite the relatively upbeat current conditions, the survey revealed growing caution among firms about the near-term outlook.

Both manufacturers and non-manufacturers expect business conditions to deteriorate over the next three months, reflecting concerns about the economic fallout from the Iran conflict and its impact on energy markets.

The ongoing conflict has driven up global fuel costs, increasing operational expenses for Japanese companies that rely heavily on imported energy. The resulting squeeze on margins is expected to weigh on profitability, particularly for industries with limited pricing power.

Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, said the strength of the survey could still encourage policymakers to act. He noted that firms appeared to be absorbing the energy shock for now, suggesting that underlying economic conditions remain stable enough to support a rate hike in the near term.

Capital expenditure plans among large firms also pointed to cautious optimism. Companies expect to increase investment by 3.3% in the fiscal year 2026, exceeding a median market forecast of a 3.0% rise.

The planned increase suggests that firms are continuing to invest in growth despite heightened uncertainty.The survey period, which ran from February 26 to March 31, captured responses from roughly 70% of firms by March 12, shortly after the escalation of hostilities involving the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran on February 28.

This timing indicates that early assessments of the conflict’s economic impact are already being reflected in corporate sentiment.Economists cautioned that the positive momentum seen in the survey may not be sustained if external conditions worsen.

Stefan Angrick said that while a weak yen and subdued wage growth have supported corporate margins, broader economic challenges remain.He noted that export growth could weaken amid slowing global demand, while domestic consumption may remain constrained by modest income gains.

Over time, these factors could weigh on corporate profits and sentiment, complicating the central bank’s policy decisions.The survey underscores the delicate balance facing policymakers as they navigate between emerging inflationary pressures and risks to economic growth.

While improving sentiment and rising prices strengthen the case for tightening monetary policy, the uncertain global environment, particularly developments in the Middle East, continues to pose significant challenges for Japan’s export-driven economy.

The U.S. dollar continues its upward trajectory, reaching a fresh four-month high against major currencies as investors flock toward safe-haven assets amid global market caution, shifting interest rate expectations, and geopolitical concerns.

The U.S. dollar extended its gains this week, strengthening across global markets as investors sought safety amid renewed uncertainty over global economic growth and monetary policy.

The greenback’s rise reflects a mix of cautious investor sentiment, divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate cuts, and risk-averse moves in global financial markets.

Analysts noted that with stock markets turning volatile and government bond demand increasing, investors turned to the U.S. dollar as their preferred safe-haven asset.

The euro slipped for the fifth consecutive session, marking its weakest level since August, while the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc also found modest support.

Market experts said the dollar’s continued strength underscores its dominance as the world’s primary reserve currency, especially in times of market turbulence.

Despite earlier speculation that the Federal Reserve might pursue another rate cut this year, divisions among policymakers have cast doubt on that scenario.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently hinted that future cuts were “not guaranteed,” emphasizing a data-driven approach to monetary policy.

This uncertainty has caused investors to reassess expectations, pushing the dollar index above 100 for the first time since early August, signaling renewed global demand for the U.S. currency.

Meanwhile, the British pound weakened following comments by UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who highlighted the nation’s economic challenges ahead of her upcoming budget presentation.

Reeves mentioned that “hard choices” would be necessary to manage high debt levels and persistent inflation. Analysts believe this cautious tone could lead to further speculation about a dovish stance from the Bank of England, potentially keeping the pound under pressure in the near term.

In Asia, the Japanese yen showed slight recovery after recent losses, supported by the Bank of Japan’s steady monetary policy stance.

The yen’s earlier weakness had raised concerns about possible government intervention to prevent excessive depreciation, as Japanese authorities reiterated their vigilance in monitoring currency movements.

Market watchers say the yen’s stability will be crucial for maintaining balance in Asian markets, particularly given Japan’s role in regional trade and investment.

The Australian dollar, however, experienced mild volatility after the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged at 3.60%.

The RBA expressed caution about inflation trends, signaling that it would take a measured approach before considering any further easing.

This prudent stance has been viewed positively by investors seeking policy stability amid broader market uncertainty.

Cryptocurrency markets were not immune to the risk-off sentiment. Bitcoin fell to its lowest level in over four months, reflecting investors’ preference for traditional safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and government bonds.

Analysts said digital assets are likely to remain under pressure until broader confidence returns to global markets.

Overall, the dollar’s recent rally highlights the ongoing strength of the U.S. economy relative to other regions. With traders now pricing only a 65% chance of a rate cut in December—down from 94% last week—sentiment favors a strong dollar heading into the year-end.

The combination of resilient U.S. labor data, moderate inflation control, and steady consumer spending continues to bolster global confidence in the American economy.

As the year progresses, investors will closely monitor upcoming Federal Reserve comments, employment data, and inflation reports for further clues on monetary policy direction.

In the meantime, the dollar’s dominance as a safe-haven currency appears firmly intact, supported by global uncertainty and cautious optimism surrounding the U.S. economic outlook.