If anything, the present nexus between the military establishment and the toothless civilian leadership has shown that it is difficult to have a fair space for criticism and dissent in Pakistan.

In yet another flummoxing display, Pakistan has charged the opposition leader in the National Assembly with treason. Mehmood Khan Achakzai, Chairman of the Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP), has been booked and charged with treason for his remarks at a public meeting in Balochistan. Achakzai is the president of Tehreek Tahaffuz Ayeen-i-Pakistan (TTAP), a multi-party opposition alliance formed to protect the Constitution of Pakistan, which, according to the opposition, is under attack from the military establishment, with the support of the government.

Although a long practice in the country, using the draconian law to silence critics of the military establishment/government has picked up in recent years. One reason for that is the nature of the present ruling administration.

It is interesting to see that the scope of these laws has expanded; now the political opponents of the existing “hybrid model” of government in Pakistan, as Defence Minister Khawaja Asif calls it, have borne the brunt of the sedition laws for their criticism of the government, or the hybrid regime, to put it in its truest description. The civilian leadership is forced to mitigate the adverse effects of the model simply because it cannot be in government or run functions if it were to break ties with the military establishment. That being the case, the civilian part of the model is subservient to the military establishment. How can that be called even a “hybrid model”?   

The civilian leaders act as intermediaries, while the military establishment pulls the strings on every decision. No wonder that in the last couple of years, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, and others have been currying favour with the country’s security forces, even on the economy. Prime Minister Sharif, known for his unhinged use of praise to extract favours from powerful personnel, went beyond even his own previous injudicious acts and said on an occasion recently that “History will always remember the wise and courageous leadership of the field marshal (Asim Munir) in golden words.”

Such flattering words from the Prime Minister tell a lot about the nature of the current model of governance in Pakistan: the civilian leaders will act on behalf of or for the military generals, and critics will bear the brunt.   

Achakzai’s case is not the only one. On a similar pattern, in yet another high-profile case, former Prime Minister Imran Khan was charged with treason for a rather bizarre accusation. Several activists and political opponents have been sent to jail after being charged with the draconian law.

All these cases are nothing but a mockery of such a serious penal law. While Imran Khan was accused of wrongfully dissolving parliament in 2022, Achakzai’s case is more interesting: he is charged with treason because he questioned the law and order situation in Balochistan and said that the government had failed to provide security to the people. There is no shortage of reports, even statements from the military establishment and the government on the situation in Balochistan that would mean the same, but it coming from the opposition leader is chargeable with the harshest possible penal code in the country, underscoring the strict policy of the current administration towards its opponents.   

More importantly, the case against the Opposition Leader in the National Assembly exposes the nature of politics in Pakistan. Essentially, the crux of the issue is that the military establishment is domineering in the present ruling political system, and any criticism of an issue points towards the failures of the military establishment. And given the stakes of Field Marshal Asim Munir in the system, the Army is unlikely to tolerate that. Therefore, conformity is sought in every case, at every possible cost.

It also shows that Pakistan’s perennial political crisis has taken a life of its own. There is no sign of it getting resolved. The Pakistani State has taken a clarion call: everyone must conform to the current administration, i.e., the military establishment, the deep state and its coterie in the civilian power circles.    

Historically, the military has dominated the country’s politics. Its domestic and foreign policies have been shaped by the generals. Even domestically, it is well documented that the military has “groomed” and “appointed” leaders in the country.

In politics, it is said that nation and state function as synonyms; in Pakistan, the military establishment and the state function as synonyms. So, any criticism against the military means the state is criticised. Such criticism therefore begets a strong punitive and legal response, including the charges of sedition. 

The story does not end here. Given that the military establishment is deeply involved in the government, any criticism, therefore, against the government is interpreted as a criticism against the military, and thus against the state. And there is a long list of such cases in Pakistan. Some of these include the cases of Baloch and Pashtun activists. In such cases, the people who have questioned the government policies towards Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) have been accused of treason and put behind bars.  

Almost the entire leadership of Baloch Yekjehti Committee (BYC), a non-violent Baloch organisation mainly comprised of the Baloch whose relatives have been victims of enforced disappearances, is in jail. So is the former member of the National Assembly and Pashtun activist, Ali Wazir. Wazir has been behind bars for a long time on treason charges for questioning the policy of the military operations and their impact on the common Pashtun in KP. Ali Wazir has spent a good share of his life in jail. He was arrested a few hours after he was released on bail on 26 March. The cases against Wazir are various sedition cases.  

Likewise, Mahrang Baloch, a Baloch and doctor by profession, along with others, is facing multiple cases of sedition. Even if she gets some relief or bail in one case, other cases are invoked to keep her behind bars. The same method is used against the people who support or defend activists in the courts of the country. Imaan Mazari and Hadi Chattha, advocates who are fighting cases of several victims of state violence, have been booked, charged and sentenced to 17 years of imprisonment for social media posts that were critical of the country’s security institutions.  

If anything, the present nexus between the military establishment and the toothless civilian leadership has shown that it is difficult to have a fair space for criticism and dissent in Pakistan. Now, since the military establishment has increasingly taken control of the country into its hands, any civilian leadership or government is symbolic. Naturally, any criticism directed at the government will be seen as criticism of the military establishment. Therefore, in all likelihood, draconian laws like treason and others will be employed more to frighten and curb dissenting voices in Pakistan. 

Munir, who has emerged as Pakistan’s principal intermediary in contacts between Washington and Tehran, arrived in China after a visit to Iran on Friday and Saturday alongside Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi. The trip formed part of ongoing regional consultations following recent efforts to advance negotiations between the two adversaries.

Sharif is on a four-day official visit to China that began on Saturday in Hangzhou, the capital of Zhejiang province. Meetings in Beijing brought together Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership with senior Chinese officials at a time of heightened diplomatic activity across the region.

Addressing Chinese leaders alongside Munir, Sharif said the international community was facing a critical period and highlighted Pakistan’s role in facilitating dialogue between the United States and Iran. Pakistan state television showed Sharif thanking China for supporting initiatives aimed at promoting regional peace and stability.

China has publicly backed Pakistan’s diplomatic engagement, saying it is prepared to work with Islamabad to contribute to the restoration of peace and stability in the Middle East.

While Pakistan has taken a visible role in mediation efforts, Beijing has largely operated behind the scenes through consultations and contacts with regional governments.
Pakistan elevated its diplomatic profile last month by hosting direct talks between US and Iranian officials, the first face-to-face negotiations between the two sides since the outbreak of the Iran conflict.

The discussions were viewed as a significant breakthrough in communication channels but ended without a lasting agreement.

Munir played a prominent role during those negotiations, receiving delegations upon arrival and participating in high-level engagements surrounding the talks. Despite the diplomatic opening, negotiations stalled after Iranian officials accused the United States of presenting demands they considered unacceptable.

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The presence of both Sharif and Munir in Beijing underscores the growing coordination between Pakistan and China on regional security issues and highlights Islamabad’s effort to maintain momentum in diplomatic initiatives aimed at reducing tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Speaking during a visit to India, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said an announcement could come within days as diplomatic efforts intensified.

“There is a chance that, whether it’s later today, tomorrow, in a couple days, we may have something to say,” Rubio told reporters, adding that he hoped to deliver “good news” soon.

Iranian officials also pointed to momentum in the talks. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said negotiators were working on a memorandum of understanding consisting of 14 clauses that could serve as the basis for a broader settlement.

“Our intention was first to draft a memorandum of understanding, a kind of framework agreement composed of 14 clauses,” Baqaei said on state television, while cautioning that a trend toward rapprochement did not guarantee agreement on all major issues.

Iranian officials stressed that disputes surrounding Tehran’s nuclear program would not form part of the initial framework, which is expected to focus on de-escalation measures and ending hostilities. Iranian negotiators have also said lifting the US naval blockade remains a key component of discussions.

The latest diplomatic push has been heavily supported by Pakistan, whose army chief, Asim Munir, concluded a two-day visit to Tehran after meetings with President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni.

Pakistan’s military said the meetings contributed “meaningfully” to mediation efforts and produced encouraging progress toward a final understanding.
“The discussions remained focused upon expediting the consultative process underway to support peace and stability in the region and to reach a conclusive agreement,” Pakistan’s military said in a statement following Munir’s departure.

Despite the positive signals, Iranian officials continued to warn against any return to military confrontation. Qalibaf said Iran’s armed forces had rebuilt their capabilities during the ceasefire period and would respond forcefully if hostilities resumed.

The conflict erupted after US and Israeli attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, triggering a regional crisis that disrupted shipping and energy flows through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil exports.

Araghchi, in a conversation with Antonio Guterres, said Iran remained engaged in diplomacy despite what he described as repeated military aggression and excessive demands from Washington. He also held consultations with counterparts from Turkiye, Iraq, Qatar and Oman.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump spoke by phone with Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, whose office said the Qatari leader supported efforts to contain the crisis through dialogue and diplomacy.

Any agreement would mark the most significant diplomatic breakthrough since the outbreak of the conflict and could ease tensions across a region that has faced months of military escalation and economic disruption.

The visit comes as Islamabad has taken on an increasingly active diplomatic role since the outbreak of hostilities in late February following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Pakistan has maintained contacts with both Tehran and Washington in an effort to prevent broader regional escalation and support negotiations toward a lasting ceasefire.

Iran’s state news agency IRNA, citing a diplomatic source in Islamabad, reported earlier that Munir had departed for Tehran and was expected to hold meetings with senior Iranian officials. A Pakistani security source separately confirmed the army chief’s visit to Arab News on condition of anonymity.

Munir is expected to be joined by Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who has already held meetings with Iranian leaders twice this week as part of Islamabad’s diplomatic outreach.

Separately, a Qatari negotiating delegation arrived in Tehran on Friday in coordination with the United States to help secure an agreement aimed at ending the conflict and resolving outstanding disputes, according to a source familiar with the discussions cited by Reuters.

Qatar has played a prominent mediation role in several regional conflicts, including negotiations related to the Gaza war. However, Doha had largely avoided direct involvement in efforts surrounding the Iran conflict after coming under Iranian missile and drone attacks during the recent hostilities.

The renewed diplomatic activity follows comments by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said on Friday that talks with Iran had shown “slight progress,” while cautioning against overstating the advances made so far.

Speaking ahead of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Helsingborg, Sweden, Rubio said there had been “a little bit of movement” in negotiations and described continued dialogue as a positive development. His remarks came days after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had delayed a military strike against Iran because “serious negotiations” were underway.

Trump has repeatedly warned that the ceasefire established in mid-April could collapse if negotiations fail to produce an agreement, while discussions have continued amid shifting expectations over the terms of a potential deal.

NATO foreign ministers are also expected to discuss possible alliance involvement in helping secure maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after the conflict, underscoring the broader strategic implications of any settlement reached between Washington and Tehran.

China’s foreign ministry said Sharif’s meetings would focus on bilateral ties and regional issues, though it did not specify whether the Iran conflict would dominate discussions.

“The leaders of China and Pakistan will have an in-depth exchange of views on bilateral relations and issues of common concern,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun told reporters in Beijing.

Guo said China would work with Pakistan to “make positive contributions to the early restoration of peace and stability in the Middle East,” adding that Beijing supported Islamabad’s “fair and balanced mediating role” aimed at ending the conflict.

Pakistan has emerged as an active intermediary between Washington and Tehran in recent weeks and hosted talks involving U.S. and Iranian officials last month. Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir was also expected in Tehran on Thursday, according to Iranian media reports.

A ceasefire agreement reached on April 8 has paused direct hostilities in the region, although U.S. President Donald Trump warned on Wednesday that diplomatic efforts faced narrowing prospects.

China has maintained a lower-profile role in the crisis, facilitating calls and meetings with Gulf officials while urging regional de-escalation. Following talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing last week, Trump said Xi had offered Chinese assistance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping route disrupted during the conflict.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi earlier this month urged Pakistan to intensify mediation efforts during a phone call with Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar.
Sharif’s visit also comes as Beijing deepens strategic coordination with Islamabad amid broader geopolitical tensions across Asia and the Middle East.

In its efforts to woo foreign investment and overhaul its image, Pakistan is trying to sell the natural resources of Balochistan to the world.

The Government of Pakistan has imposed a series of restrictions to maintain law and order in Balochistan, the largest and most troubled province of the country. Issuing a notice on 17 May, the Government imposed Section 144 across Balochistan for a period of one month. The notification put restrictions on all public gatherings, including rallies and processions involving five or more people. Covering of faces in public places is also prohibited.

Imposition of restrictive measures in Balochistan vindicates the failure of the Pakistan Military, Federal Government, and the Provincial Government led by Chief Minister Sarfaraz Bugti to bring the armed struggle of Baloch rebels under control. Pakistan security forces have been incurring huge losses at the hands Baloch militants. On 12 May, in the latest case, a search operation team came under heavy fire from the Baloch militants in Barkhan District, killing five Pakistani military personnel.  

Pakistan’s Balochistan problem has lingered for eight decades. The ruling elite has failed to come up with a mutually acceptable solution to the problem that has led to four Baloch insurgencies in the short history of the country: 1948, 1958, 1973, and 2003. The latest insurgency intensified with the alleged rape of a Baloch doctor, from the Bugti Tribe, by a colonel of the Pakistan Army in 2005. 

The rape took place at Sui, Dera Bugti, in the heavily guarded government-owned natural gas plant. The colonel was never held accountable; instead, the doctor was held captive and threatened to stay silent. This not only provoked the Baloch but also united various tribes to seek justice for a Baloch woman, intensifying attacks on the Pakistan Army. In response, instead of addressing the heinous crime and punishing the colonel, Pakistani forces killed the prominent Bugti tribe leader, Akbar Bugti, in August 2006. 

Naturally, the killing stoked up anger, strengthening Baloch nationalist sentiment and escalating the conflict. Since then, the situation has been compounded further with huge human rights violations, with the adoption of the brutal “kill and dump” policy of the Pakistani State. 

In 2011, a senior vice-president of the Balochistan High Court Bar Association (BHCBA) had warned that if the “kill and dump” policy was not stopped, the situation in Balochistan could go out of control. Over 15 years later, the situation in Balochistan has only worsened further. Even the people who raise their voice on human rights violations of the Baloch people, like the leadership of Baloch Yekjehti Committee (BYC) and their supporters, are sent behind bars. 

The ruling elite remain deluded by the notion that the country’s strong military can help it to end the conflict in Balochistan. That is a grossly miscalculated assumption. Internal reports have time and again underlined the reality in Balochistan. Calling its 2025 report on Balochistan Balochistan’s Crisis of Trust, the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) had said in its press release that “The mission’s findings reveal a disturbing pattern of continued enforced disappearances, shrinking civic space, erosion of provincial autonomy and unchecked impunity—conditions that continue to fuel public alienation and political instability.” 

At a time when Islamabad is trying to promote an image of being a regional stabilising force and making efforts to bring the two warring factions in the US-led war against Iran to the negotiation table, the persisting internal instability and Islamabad’s approach towards Balochistan and the Baloch people expose its efforts to portray the country in a positive light. 

Shorn of any credibility that it could utilise to overhaul the country’s image by overlooking conflict in Balochistan and security issues in general, the country’s leadership resorts to the practice of externalising the blame and accusing others of damaging its image. 

In a recent statement, Pakistani Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting Attaullah Tarar issued a long statement on X: “We understand quite clearly that behind such stories are certain elements, mainly the detractors of peace, who are unable to come to terms with Pakistan’s role for peace in the region as well as Pakistan’s continued and successful fight against foreign-sponsored and abetted terrorism.” Tarar stated that it seems some elements could not digest the fact that Pakistan was playing a role in regional stability and making progress in eliminating terrorism. 

Measures like the ones taken in Balochistan are a self-evident acknowledgement that the real situation in the province is worrying. Reality is that Balochistan remains Pakistan’s most deprived and poor province despite being rich in natural resources and having a long coastline. The poverty in Balochistan increased from 41.8 per cent in 2019 to 47 per cent in the Financial Year 2025, way high above the national poverty rate of over 29 per cent.

In its efforts to woo foreign investment and overhaul its image, Pakistan is trying to sell the natural resources of Balochistan to the world. Lately, it has tried to woo the US to invest in the critical minerals of Balochistan, including copper. When Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshall Asim Munir presented rare earth minerals to President Donald Trump while on a visit to the US in October 2025, the Chief Secretary of Balochistan said in a statement in December that “American and other companies are interested in investment in this mineral (antimony, among others), which is more precious than gold and copper.” 

While the government is making ambitious efforts to entice foreign countries to invest and dig minerals from Balochistan, regional parties like the Balochistan National Party (BNP) have raised questions on the laws that allow the extraction of Balochistan’s resources. 

The hard reality is that situation in Balochistan remains abysmal: use of force, threatening and arresting people like Mahrang Baloch and others. This will not resolve the Baloch problem; nor will it divert attention from the issue. The country needs concrete steps, acceptable to the Baloch people, to resolve the issue of continued Baloch resistance.

But the brutal use of force by the Pakistani state against the poorest province of Pakistan is unlikely to change in a country where the military’s domineering presence in politics remains strong. This will keep fuelling public apathy and disaffection in Balochistan and in the absence of any genuine and sincere approach by the state if Pakistan to resolve the issue of Baloch alienation, the situation in likely to aggravate further in the days to come.

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not reflect Milli Chronicle’s point-of-view.

Iran’s state-run reported that the two ministers discussed bilateral relations, including measures to facilitate border trade, transit and the exchange of goods between the neighboring countries during Naqvi’s unannounced visit to Tehran.

The meeting comes as regional tensions remain elevated following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 that prompted Iranian retaliation and restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies.

A ceasefire announced on April 8 has largely held, though negotiations between Washington and Tehran have made limited progress after an initial round of direct talks in Islamabad.

IRNA said Momeni thanked Pakistan for its “friendly and brotherly stance” toward Iran and described relations between the two countries as rooted in longstanding historical ties. Iranian media reports did not directly reference Pakistan’s mediation role in the Iran-U.S. dispute.

Pakistan’s government also did not publicly disclose details of Naqvi’s visit. A Pakistani interior ministry source confirmed to Arab News earlier that the minister had arrived in Iran but declined to elaborate on the purpose of the trip.

Iran’s mehrnews separately reported Naqvi’s arrival in Tehran for consultations with senior Iranian officials.
Naqvi had accompanied Pakistan army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir during a visit to Tehran in April as Islamabad intensified diplomatic contacts with regional capitals in an effort to encourage dialogue between Tehran and Washington.

Pakistan’s foreign ministry said last month it remained engaged in efforts to reduce regional tensions. Foreign ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi told reporters in Islamabad that “the clock on diplomacy has not stopped” and that discussions aimed at preserving the peace process were continuing.

Islamabad and Tehran have simultaneously sought to expand bilateral trade through border markets and barter arrangements designed to bypass banking and currency constraints. Iran has increasingly relied on alternative trading mechanisms amid sanctions pressure and foreign exchange shortages.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visited Pakistan in August last year, when the two countries signed agreements targeting bilateral trade growth to $10 billion by 2028.

The visit also followed remarks by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in New Delhi on Friday that distrust toward Washington remained the principal obstacle in negotiations with the United States, while indicating Iran remained open to diplomatic support from regional countries.

Tensions in Gulf energy markets have persisted despite the ceasefire, with restrictions around Hormuz and continuing U.S. measures targeting Iranian ports contributing to shipping uncertainty and oil market volatility.

According to Iran’s ISNA news agency, Araghchi was due to convey “Iran’s positions and views on the framework of any understanding to completely end the war” during fresh meetings with Pakistani officials.

The minister had visited Islamabad a day earlier, meeting Army Chief Asim Munir, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar before flying to Muscat, where he met Haitham bin Tariq as regional diplomacy intensified.Other Iranian envoys returned to Tehran for consultations and to obtain instructions related to ending the conflict, ISNA reported.

Before those talks, the White House had said Trump’s peace envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner were preparing to travel to Pakistan for further indirect negotiations.Trump later scrapped the trip, telling Fox News there was no reason to continue “sitting around talking about nothing,” while criticizing Tehran’s negotiating position.

“They gave us a paper that should have been better and interestingly immediately when I canceled it, within 10 minutes, we got a new paper that was much better,” Trump said, without giving details.Asked whether canceling the trip meant a return to open conflict, Trump said: “No, it doesn’t mean that. We haven’t thought about it yet.”Araghchi described his initial Pakistan visit as “very fruitful” but questioned Washington’s seriousness about diplomacy.“

Have yet to see if the U.S. is truly serious about diplomacy,” he said.Pressure for a diplomatic breakthrough has intensified as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, disrupting one of the world’s most important oil and gas shipping routes and driving energy prices sharply higher.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had no intention of lifting the blockade.“Controlling the Strait of Hormuz and maintaining the shadow of its deterrent effects over America and the White House’s supporters in the region is the definitive strategy of Islamic Iran,” the Guards said on Telegram.

The United States has responded by tightening restrictions on Iranian ports and increasing maritime enforcement actions against vessels linked to Tehran’s energy exports.Iran’s military accused Washington of “blockading, banditry and piracy” and warned that continued pressure would trigger a response.

Regional tensions also escalated on the Lebanese front, where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered strikes against Hezbollah targets after accusing the group of violating a ceasefire recently extended for three weeks.

Lebanese state media reported Israeli strikes in several southern districts, while Lebanon’s health ministry said attacks in Nabatieh and Bint Jbeil killed six people.Israel’s military said it had killed multiple Hezbollah operatives, including fighters allegedly transporting weapons.

Although Trump had earlier expressed optimism about peace after meetings with Israeli and Lebanese envoys, Hezbollah parliamentary bloc leader Mohammed Raad urged Lebanon to withdraw from negotiations, warning that any agreement without broader consensus would be politically unsustainable.

Araghchi is expected to travel to Moscow after completing the Islamabad consultations.

Trading volumes of the Iranian currency have reached as much as $6 million a day in Pakistan’s open market, according to the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan, with demand accelerating after reports of renewed negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

The rally has been fueled in part by Islamabad’s diplomatic outreach, with Asim Munir visiting Iran and Shehbaz Sharif undertaking a regional tour following high-level U.S.-Iran talks hosted in the Pakistani capital. Market participants say these developments have strengthened expectations of a potential breakthrough.

The Iranian riyal has risen by around 50% in Pakistan’s informal market since late February, climbing from about Rs10,000 to Rs15,000 per 10 million riyals after talks began in Islamabad on April 11, ECAP data shows.Small investors are increasingly participating in the trend.

Muhammad Akbar, a chauffeur in Karachi, said he had invested part of his monthly income into the currency, hoping to profit if negotiations succeed. “I have become a millionaire,” he said, referring to the large nominal value of riyals he now holds.Others have built significantly larger positions.

Retail investor Azam Khan said he had accumulated hundreds of millions of riyals as the currency gained traction among traders seeking quick returns.Market participants say the surge reflects heightened expectations rather than underlying economic strength.

Zafar Sultan Paracha said demand had surged across investor categories, though he cautioned that trading volumes may be even higher due to undocumented transactions.“People’s expectations are very high,” Paracha said, urging investors to base decisions on fundamentals rather than speculation.Economists warn the rally bears hallmarks of behavioral bias rather than structural recovery.

Muhammad Waqas Ghani described the trend as a “gambler’s fallacy,” where investors assume a rebound is likely simply because the currency has weakened in the past.He said Iran continues to face deep economic challenges, including liquidity shortages and stress in its banking system, which limit the scope for sustained appreciation.

Without broader reforms or durable sanctions relief, gains are likely to remain localized to Pakistan’s market rather than reflecting a global revaluation.Some investors remain cautious. Isra Ghous Rasool, a business student and stock market participant, said volatility linked to geopolitical developments made the currency too risky. “There’s simply too much volatility for me to comfortably manage,” she said.

Pakistan has also taken steps to facilitate trade through Iran, temporarily easing export rules for shipments of goods to Central Asia via Iranian territory, a move analysts say may have contributed modestly to the currency’s local demand.

Still, analysts say the current surge is driven primarily by speculation tied to geopolitical expectations rather than economic fundamentals, leaving investors exposed to sharp reversals if diplomatic progress stalls.

The meeting brought together Badr Abdelatty, Ishaq Dar and Hakan Fidan, who reviewed the evolving security situation and emphasized support for efforts aimed at achieving a permanent ceasefire, according to an official statement.

Participants welcomed Pakistan’s mediation role in ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran, expressing hope that diplomatic progress would help de-escalate tensions and limit broader economic and security fallout.Recent developments have raised expectations of a breakthrough.

A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, alongside Iran’s decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz during a temporary truce, have eased pressure on global energy markets and reduced immediate risks of escalation.The conflict, which began on Feb. 28 with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, had disrupted shipping routes and triggered volatility in global oil supplies.

The reopening of the strait long a key U.S. demand—combined with a ceasefire extension linked to Lebanon, has aligned core conditions in ongoing talks.Donald Trump said on Friday that negotiations with Tehran were nearing completion, describing a deal as “very close” and indicating that most major issues had already been resolved.

Previous talks led by J.D. Vance in Pakistan did not produce an agreement, but further negotiations are expected as diplomatic channels remain active.Trump also credited regional actors including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar for supporting stabilization efforts, while praising Shehbaz Sharif and Asim Munir for their role in facilitating dialogue.

The Antalya meeting reflects intensified regional coordination as governments seek to consolidate recent gains and move toward a broader settlement that could end hostilities and restore stability across the Middle East.