Khamenei’s ruling apparatus is deeply concerned about losing its sovereignty…

While the COVID-19 epidemic still plagues the world and most countries have devoted almost all their energy, effort, and resources to fight the virus by vaccinating or quarantining all or parts of their country and population, Iran’s situation is quite different.

Most countries have even abandoned political considerations to obtain the vaccine from wherever possible and give priority to the welfare of their people. For example, Germany and Austria, while members of the European Union, are independently negotiating the purchase of the Russian vaccine, and Italy has signed a contract to produce the Russian vaccine in its own country. While, in Iran, with a population of nearly 83 million people, fewer than one percent of the population has been able to receive even the first dose of a vaccine.

Some countries have largely succeeded in promoting general vaccination in their own country. For example, the UAE has vaccinated 80%, Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia between 40% and 50% of their population. In Turkey, with a population similar to Iran, according to Iranian regime officials, the first dose of the vaccine has reached 8,711,271 people and 6,731,876 people have received both doses. That is, 10.4% of people have received the first dose, and 8% the second.

In comparison, many fewer than one million people have received the first dose of the vaccine in Iran. Nevertheless, despite these alarming statistics, Iran continues to postpone vaccine imports. Khamenei has banned the import of the reputable American Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, which provide the highest degree of immunity.

The question is, why is Iran not able, or willing to vaccinate its population, and what are the obstacles? To answer this question, we must understand Khamenei’s mindset regarding the Coronavirus. Khamenei, who has an iron grasp on all the internal and international affairs of Iran, is well aware of the dire economic and living conditions of the people, the rampant inflation, government’s corruption, poverty, high unemployment and the ever-increasing dissatisfaction of the people towards the regime. By disallowing the vaccine’s purchase, Khamenei is trying to create a defensive shield against popular uprisings and preserve the regime’s survival.

On the other hand, by signing a secret and non-transparent contract with Cuba, Hassan Rouhani’s government has started to vaccinate 30,000 municipal workers, who are among the country’s most deprived members of society, with the Cuban vaccine which is still in a pilot phase. Meanwhile, the country’s medical staff, who are at the highest risk of contracting the disease, and many of whom have died due to the disease, have not yet been vaccinated.

Of course, the reason is clear; the medical staff know about the different kinds of injectable vaccines, their safety and effectiveness. Unlike the medical staff, the deprived members of society are typically not aware of the reality that in fact the human testing phase of this vaccine is being performed on them.

The ignoring of the medical staff by the government does not end here, many nurses do not even receive their monthly salaries on time, and this has led to many of them protesting and being subject to harsh treatment and arrest in response. Many also have left the country searching for work in other countries that recognize and appreciate the value and important role of their medical staff.

Meanwhile, according to reliable sources, more than 240,000 people in Iran have fallen victim to this disease and lost their lives. But the regime has blatantly lied by announcing the number of deaths to be about a quarter of the real number. It is almost shocking to see that, despite the fact that in the past few months several hundred ordinary people have been victims of this disease every day, none of the high-ranking officials of the country have been infected, let alone died as a result of it.

Khamenei and Rouhani spent months in quarantine. On rare occasions, Khamenei was seen performing religious ceremonies alone, without anyone else in attendance, which the people ridiculed. Similarly, Rouhani held cabinet meetings online and did not meet even with any of his ministers in person. Recently, they have both been appearing in public quite often, without even wearing a mask. This is clear evidence of them having been vaccinated, but they do not confess to that.

Of course, one of the reasons for this catastrophic situation of the outbreak of Corona in Iran, which is one of the wealthiest countries in the world with the largest oil and gas reserves and other underground resources, is the colossal government corruption. Iran’s leaders’ intentions are to become richer and fund their expansionist intentions by supporting proxy groups in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.

Furthermore, the government is talking about privatizing some of the vaccine imports. This will facilitate the regime’s affiliates acquiring funding from the government, importing vaccines from abroad, and selling them to ordinary people and hospitals at much higher prices. Khamenei’s ruling apparatus is deeply concerned about losing its sovereignty. He plans to oust the incumbent president in June in a show of force and to consolidate his rule. As a result, he wants to make the most of this disease. He wants to continue to expose the people to the virus until the elections are held and use this as a pretext for preventing any large-scale protests and rallies .

Khamenei understands fully that any controversy regarding the upcoming presidential election in Iran could be instrumental in forming widespread demonstrations throughout Iran, similar to the ones in 2019, and this could lead to the overthrow of the mullahs’ regime, hence his cynical use of the virus situation for his own ends. 

Cyrus Yaqubi is a Research Analyst and Iranian Foreign Affairs Commentator investigating the social issues and economy of the middle east countries in general and Iran in particular.

Khamenei’s refusal to allow the vaccine’s entry is another clear sign of its concern for possible social unrests and uprisings.

In his speech on Friday, January 8, 2021, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ali Khamenei, pointed to a few matters’ worth elaborating on. Throughout his speech, he made it clear that in Iran, the foremost decision-making authority is himself and the government, the president, and the parliament are not allowed to decide on major issues. In other words, the people’s will and whatever other officials may express are unimportant to him. Listening to his speech, one would clearly comprehend that Iran is, in fact, a dictatorial country ruled by a dictator named Ali Khamenei and that other government agencies have virtually no power to make important decisions.

But one of the important points that Khamenei addressed in his speech was the possible purchase of the Corona vaccine from American and British companies. Last week, a massive campaign #buy vaccine was launched by the Iranian people on social media platforms. Khamenei called the vaccines from the United States and Britain unreliable and not trustworthy for ridiculous reasons. Khamenei’s unscientific and dangerous assumptions contradict the World Health Organization and almost all countries of the world that have approved the use of these vaccines in their countries.

In his speech, Khamenei stated: “Allowing the American and British vaccines into the country is prohibited. I also told this to the Iranian government officials, and I will say it publicly now”. He said the vaccines should not be bought. In other words, it does not matter to him that thousands of Iranians will lose their lives because of the unavailability of the vaccines. He encouraged people to wait for the vaccine that is supposed to be produced in Iran. He intentionally did not mention in his speech that in the most optimistic case, it will take at least one year to avail the vaccine to the people.

Khamenei’s decision to disallow the import and use of the Corona vaccine into Iran indicates that contrary to the regime’s rhetoric and propaganda, Iran was never sanctioned on food and medicine and the Iranian authority’s claims that because of sanctions, Iran was unable to import the vaccines.  Throughout its life, the Iranian regime has always been fearful of possible social unrests and uprisings. It has employed every possible apparatus in its disposal to suppress any gathering and demonstrations by the people. Khamenei’s refusal to allow the vaccine’s entry is another clear sign of its concern for possible social unrests and uprisings.

Another important point that Khamenei mentioned in his speech was the issue of the US sanctions. While calling for the immediate lifting of sanctions by the United States, he explicitly confirmed that Iran no longer adheres to some of its JCPOA obligations, including enriching 20% uranium. He stressed if other countries do not implement their shares of JCPOA, Iran will not either.

Of course, the actions of the Iranian regime over the past year, the start of 20% Uranium enrichment, and expressing its intentions for higher Uranium enrichment prove that Iran has never given up on its desire to build an atomic bomb. Khamenei intends to exploit the transition of power in the United States by blackmailing and extorting, forcing foreign parties to lift sanctions, renounce Iran’s missile programs and export of terrorism and the regime’s criminal interventions in the region.

In his speech, Khamenei intends to pressure Biden to lift the sanctions as soon as possible; otherwise, Iran will no longer abide by the JPCOA agreement and will enrich uranium with high percentages, which is used to build nuclear weapons and blame the American president. He also pointed out that the United States’ return to JPCOA is not important for Iran, and he only demands the lifting of sanctions by the United States. It is clear that Biden will not rejoin the old JPCOA and will want a new agreement to be discussed. In addition to the nuclear issue, the new agreement will address other topics such as the regime’s provocative interventions in the region and support for terrorist groups in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Syria, and Iran’s expansion of missile power.

Khamenei also referred to these two issues and said, “First of all, Iran has a duty to act in such a way that its friends and supporters in the region are strengthened, it is our duty. Our presence in the region means strengthening our friends and strengthening our supporters. We should not weaken the friends of the Islamic Republic and those loyal to the regime. So, this is a definite regional presence that must exist and will exist. ». This means that Iran will continue to spend a large portion of its budget on helping proxy groups in other countries, despite the dire internal economic situation and the Iranian people’s dissatisfaction. It is worth mentioning that the majority of the Iranian people live below the poverty line. This of course will continue destabilizing the region.

Regarding the Iranian missile program, Khamenei said, “Today, our defense power is such that our enemies have to take into account Iran’s capabilities in their calculations.” “We must not leave our country defenseless; it is our duty; we must not bow to the enemy’s demands.” In his speech, Khamenei also talked about Iran’s next presidential election that is scheduled to be held in June 2021. Khamenei is pursuing a contractionary policy. He has installed two of his close associates as head of the Judiciary and the parliament’s head. Khamenei is considering making sure the next president and his ministers are also completely aligned with his policies.

To this end, in his speeches, he referred to his preference for a radical government modelled by Qassem Soleimani, former commander of the Quds terrorist force. It should be noted that after raising this issue, several Revolutionary Guards commanders have prepared themselves to participate in the showy presidential elections. Thus, Khamenei wants to seize all the levers of power and government and eliminate any possible opposition to him and his decisions.

However, given the dire economic/social situation in Iran and the corruption in the government apparatus, which has caused dissatisfaction among more than 90% of the people, it remains to be seen whether Khamenei’s plans can save his government and prevent its overthrow by popular uprisings. We have seen it in previous years, especially in the November 2019 uprising. This is something that will be answered in the coming months.

Cyrus Yaqubi is a Research Analyst and Iranian Foreign Affairs Commentator investigating the social issues and economy of the middle east countries in general and Iran in particular.