by Reza Parchizadeh
The Iranian regime and its allies are intent upon dragging President Trump to a limited and thus inconclusive conflict in the Middle East in the short term.
At the prospect of the Russia Probe and possibility of a presidential impeachment, the Islamist regime in Iran had gotten its hopes up that President Trump would be a one-term US president. That is why the regime was willing to bear the brunt of the sanctions rather quietly so that it could get rid of Trump and his close advisers and allies at the end of the designated four years and then strike a favorable deal with the Democrats.
However, President Trump has emerged unscathed and even more popular due to his strong foreign policy and a boost to the domestic economy – as well as some other measures. Now the Islamist regime and its allies, i.e. the globalists and leftists of all stripes, know that if things will be the same in a year as they stand now, Trump will most likely win his second presidential term. That is their worst nightmare.
As a result, the mullahs and their allies changed tactic. From all sorts of refusals to talk and vague threats against President Trump, they have geared up towards specific military and terroristic threats and their delivery. All the escalation that the Iranian regime has been making recently, including tanker and Houthi attacks and drone downing as well as accelerated uranium enrichment and stockpiling in breach of the JCPOA, is aimed at curtailing Trump’s presidency.
The Iranian regime and its allies are intent upon dragging President Trump to a limited and thus inconclusive conflict in the Middle East in the short term. In the meantime, the leftists/liberals at home and the globalists around the world will be bitterly blaming Trump for unilaterally pulling the US out of the “landmark” nuclear deal that had contributed to “world peace.” Attacks on US assets, personnel, and allies by the Iranian regime will also boost the position of Trump’s opponents at home.
As things stand now, President Trump is in a tricky situation, and thus should take his next steps very carefully. In order to secure a second term, Trump would not want to engage the Iranian regime in a limited conflict that will go nowhere in the short term. At the same time, since the regime will certainly continue to escalate if it goes unchallenged, adopting a continuous “no-response” approach can also lead to the loss of the president’s domestic and global prestige.
As such, President Trump has two options: 1) Let the Iranian regime escalate at the expense of his prestige so that he can secure his second term and then decisively deal with the regime – which might not necessarily happen if things will be going as they already are now; 2) Launch a full-scale invasion of Iran and finish off the Islamist regime before the election time arrives so that he can have a spectacular and historic foreign policy victory on his portfolio that his rivals cannot even dream of matching.
"France is now refusing to take action to reinstate sanctions. Instead, Macron is pushing the British and nearly always western-security-unreliable Germany to support appeasing Iran." https://t.co/1CE9yl5TwG— Tom Rogan (@TomRtweets) July 2, 2019
The second method, in my opinion, is the surest way, only if the White House has the will and determination to fully commit to it. At any rate, President Trump cannot afford to appear weak, especially not at this moment. That’s why we are likely to see “action” soon. One way or the other, radical change is in store for the world.
Article first published on Herald Report.
Dr. Reza Parchizadeh is a political theorist and analyst. His area of expertise is the Middle East, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia. He defended his doctoral dissertation at Indiana University of Pennsylvania (IUP) under the title “The Recurring Progress of English Political Thought in Shakespeare’s Histories,” with a concentration on political thought, history of ideas, philosophy of history, cultural studies and Shakespeare, and passed it with distinction.
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not reflect Milli Chronicle’s point-of-view.